,ON ,LIBYA & ! ,UNFOLD+ ,CRISES 

#baa 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,NOAM ,*OMSKY 

,TEXT 3 

  

,PHOTO BY ,JEANNE ,M5J\LET1,C,C ,B,Y-,N,D ,LIC5SE  
,:AT >E ,U4,S4 MOTIVES 9 9T]NATIONAL RELATIONS MO/ BROADLY8 ,?AT IS1 :AT >E ! OV] >*+ MOTIVES & !MES ONE CAN PRETTY MU* ALWAYS F9D 9=M+ ,U4,S4 POLICY *OICES1 NO MATT] :]E 9 ! WORLD WE >E DISCUSS+8 ,:AT >E ! SOME:AT MORE SPECIFIC BUT /ILL OV] >*+ MOTIVES & !MES = ,U4,S4 POLICY 9 ,MIDDLE ,EA/ & ! ,>AB WORLD8 ,F9ALLY1 :AT DO Y\ ?9K >E ! MORE PROXIMATE AIMS ( ,U4,S4 POLICY 9 ! CURR5T SITUATION 9 ,LIBYA8 

,A USEFUL WAY TO APPROA* ! QUE/ION IS TO ASK :AT ,U4,S4 MOTIVES >E ,N,O,T4 ,!RE >E SOME GOOD WAYS TO F9D \T4 ,ONE IS TO READ ! PR(ESSIONAL LIT]ATURE ON 9T]NATIONAL RELATIONS3 QUITE COMMONLY1 ITS ACC\NT ( POLICY IS :AT POLICY IS NOT1 AN 9T]E/+ TOPIC ?AT ,I WON'T PURSUE4 

,ANO!R ME?OD1 QUITE RELEVANT N[1 IS TO LI/5 TO POLITICAL LEAD]S & COMM5TATORS4 ,SUPPOSE !Y SAY ?AT ! MOTIVE = A MILIT>Y ACTION IS HUMANIT>IAN4 ,9 ITSELF1 ?AT C>RIES NO 9=MATION3 VIRTUALLY EV]Y RESORT TO =CE IS JU/IFI$ 9 ?OSE T]MS1 EV5 BY ! WOR/ MON/]S - :O MAY1 IRRELEVANTLY1 EV5 CONV9CE !MSELVES ( ! TRU? ( :AT !Y >E SAY+4 ,HITL]1 = EXAMPLE1 MAY HAVE BELIEV$ ?AT HE WAS TAK+ OV] P>TS ( ,CZE*OSLOVAKIA TO 5D E?NIC CONFLICT & BR+ ITS PEOPLE ! B5EFITS ( AN ADVANC$ CIVILIZATION1 & ?AT HE 9VAD$ ,POL& TO 5D ! 0WILD T]ROR0 ( ! ,POLES4 ,JAPANESE FASCI/S RAMPAG+ 9 ,*9A PROBABLY DID BELIEVE ?AT !Y W]E SELFLESSLY LABOR+ TO CREATE AN 0E>?LY P>ADISE0 & TO PROTECT ! SUFF]+ POPULATION FROM 0,*9ESE B&ITS40 ,EV5 ,OBAMA MAY HAVE BELIEV$ :AT HE SAID 9 HIS PRESID5TIAL ADDRESS ON ,M>* #bh AB\T ! HUMANIT>IAN MOTIVES = ! ,LIBYAN 9T]V5TION4 ,SAME HOLDS ( COMM5TATORS4 

,!RE IS1 H[EV]1 A V]Y SIMPLE TE/ TO DET]M9E :E!R ! PR(ESSIONS ( NOBLE 9T5T CAN BE TAK5 S]I\SLY3 DO ! AU?ORS CALL = HUMANIT>IAN 9T]V5TION & 0RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT0 TO DEF5D ! VICTIMS ( !IR [N CRIMES1 OR ?OSE ( !IR CLI5TS8 ,DID ,OBAMA1 = EXAMPLE1 CALL = A NO-FLY ZONE DUR+ ! MURD]\S & DE/RUCTIVE ,U,S-BACK$ ,ISRAELI 9VASION ( ,LEBANON 9 #b#f1 ) NO CR$IBLE PRETEXT8 ,OR DID HE1 RA!R1 BOA/ PR\DLY DUR+ HIS PRESID5TIAL CAMPAIGN ?AT HE HAD CO-SPONSOR$ A ,S5ATE RESOLUTION SUPPORT+ ! 9VASION & CALL+ = PUNI%M5T ( ,IRAN & ,SYRIA = IMP$+ IT8 ,5D ( DISCUSSION4 ,9 FACT1 VIRTUALLY ! 5TIRE LIT]ATURE ( HUMANIT>IAN 9T]V5TION & RI<T TO PROTECT1 WRITT5 & SPOK51 DISAPPE>S UND] ?IS SIMPLE & APPROPRIATE TE/4 

,9 CONTRA/1 :AT MOTIVES ACTUALLY ,>,E IS R>ELY DISCUSS$1 & ONE HAS TO LOOK AT ! DOCUM5T>Y & HI/ORICAL RECORD TO UNE>? !M1 9 ! CASE ( ANY /ATE4 

,:AT !N >E ,U4,S4 MOTIVES8 ,AT A V]Y G5]AL LEVEL1 ! EVID5CE SEEMS TO ME TO %[ ?AT !Y HAVE NOT *ANG$ MU* S9CE ! HI<-LEVEL PLANN+ /UDIES UND]TAK5 DUR+ ,WORLD ,W> ,I,I4 ,W>TIME PLANN]S TOOK = GRANT$ ?AT ! ,U,S W\LD EM]GE FROM ! W> 9 A POSITION ( OV]:ELM+ DOM9ANCE1 & CALL$ = ! E/ABLI%M5T ( A ,GR& ,>EA 9 :I* ! ,U,S W\LD MA9TA9 0UNQUE/ION$ P[]10 ) 0MILIT>Y & ECONOMIC SUPREMACY10 :ILE 5SUR+ ! 0LIMITATION ( ANY EX]CISE ( SOV]EIGNTY0 BY /ATES ?AT MI<T 9T]F]E ) ITS GLOBAL DESIGNS4 ,! ,GR& ,>EA WAS TO 9CLUDE ! ,WE/]N HEMISPH]E1 ! ,F> ,EA/1 ! ,BRITI% EMPIRE 7:I* 9CLUD$ ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ 5]GY RES]VES71 & AS MU* ( ,EURASIA AS POSSIBLE1 AT LEA/ ITS 9DU/RIAL & COMM]CIAL C5T] 9 ,WE/]N ,EUROPE4 ,IT IS QUITE CLE> FROM ! DOCUM5T>Y RECORD ?AT 0,PRESID5T ,ROOSEVELT WAS AIM+ AT ,UNIT$ ,/ATES HEGEMONY 9 ! PO/W> WORLD10 TO QUOTE ! ACCURATE ASSESSM5T ( ! 7JU/LY7 RESPECT$ ,BRITI% DIPLOMATIC HI/ORIAN ,GE(FREY ,W>N]4 ,& MORE SIGNIFICANT1 ! C>EFUL W>TIME PLANS W]E SOON IMPLEM5T$1 AS WE READ 9 DECLASSIFI$ DOCUM5TS ( ! FOLL[+ YE>S1 & OBS]VE 9 PRACTICE4 ,CIRCUM/ANCES ( C\RSE HAVE *ANG$1 & TACTICS ADJU/$ ACCORD+LY1 BUT BASIC PR9CIPLES >E QUITE /ABLE1 TO ! PRES5T4 

,) REG>D TO ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ - ! 0MO/ /RATEGICALLY IMPORTANT REGION ( ! WORLD10 9 ,EIS5H[]'S PHRASE -- ! PRIM>Y CONC]N HAS BE51 & REMA9S1 ITS 9COMP>ABLE 5]GY RES]VES4 ,CONTROL ( !SE W\LD YIELD 0SUB/ANTIAL CONTROL ( ! WORLD10 AS OBS]V$ E>LY ON BY ! 9FLU5TIAL LIB]AL ADVIS] ,A4,A4 ,B]LE4 ,!SE CONC]NS >E R>ELY F> 9 ! BACKGR\ND 9 AFFAIRS CONC]N+ ?IS REGION4 

,9 ,IRAQ1 = EXAMPLE1 AS ! DIM5SIONS ( ! ,U,S DEFEAT C\LD NO LONG] BE CONCEAL$1 PRETTY RHETORIC WAS DISPLAC$ BY HONE/ ANN\NCEM5T ( POLICY GOALS4 ,9 ,NOVEMB] #bg ! ,:ITE ,H\SE ISSU$ A ,DECL>ATION ( ,PR9CIPLES 9SI/+ ?AT ,IRAQ MU/ GRANT ,U,S MILIT>Y =CES 9DEF9ITE ACCESS & MU/ PRIVILEGE ,AM]ICAN 9VE/ORS4 ,TWO MON?S LAT] ! PRESID5T 9=M$ ,CONGRESS ?AT HE W\LD IGNORE LEGISLATION ?AT MI<T LIMIT ! P]MAN5T /ATION+ ( ,U,S ,>M$ ,=CES 9 ,IRAQ OR 0,UNIT$ ,/ATES CONTROL ( ! OIL RES\RCES ( ,IRAQ0 - DEM&S ?AT ! ,U,S HAD TO AB&ON %ORTLY AFT] 9 ! FACE ( ,IRAQI RESI/ANCE1 JU/ AS IT HAD TO AB&ON E>LI] GOALS4 

,:ILE CONTROL OV] OIL IS NOT ! SOLE FACTOR 9 ,MIDDLE ,EA/ POLICY1 IT PROVIDES FAIRLY GOOD GUIDEL9ES1 RI<T N[ AS WELL4 ,9 AN OIL-RI* C\NTRY1 A RELIABLE DICTATOR IS GRANT$ VIRTUAL FREE RE94 ,9 REC5T WEEKS1 = EXAMPLE1 !RE WAS NO REACTION :5 ! ,SAUDI DICTATOR%IP US$ MASSIVE =CE TO PREV5T ANY SIGN ( PROTE/4 ,SAME 9 ,KUWAIT1 :5 SMALL DEMON/RATIONS W]E 9/ANTLY CRU%$4 ,& 9 ,BAHRA91 :5 ,SAUDI-L$ =CES 9T]V5$ TO PROTECT ! M9ORITY ,SUNNI MON>* FROM CALLS = RE=M ON ! P>T ( ! REPRESS$ ,%IITE POPULATION4 ,GOV]NM5T =CES NOT ONLY SMA%$ ! T5T CITY 9 ,PE>L ,SQU>E - ,BAHRA9'S ,TAHRIR ,SQU>E -- BUT EV5 DEMOLI%$ ! ,PE>L /ATUE ?AT WAS ,BAHRA9'S SYMBOL1 & HAD BE5 APPROPRIAT$ BY ! PROTE/]S4 ,BAHRA9 IS A P>TICUL>LY S5SITIVE CASE BECAUSE IT HO/S ! ,U,S ,FIF? FLEET1 BY F> ! MO/ P[]FUL MILIT>Y =CE 9 ! REGION1 & BECAUSE EA/]N ,SAUDI ,>ABIA1 RI<T ACROSS ! CAUSEWAY1 IS ALSO L>GELY ,%IITE1 & HAS MO/ ( ! ,K+DOM'S OIL RES]VES4 ,BY A CURI\S ACCID5T ( GEOGRAPHY & HI/ORY1 ! WORLD'S L>GE/ HYDROC>BON CONC5TRATIONS SURR\ND ! NOR!RN ,GULF1 9 MO/LY ,%IITE REGIONS4 ,! POSSIBILITY ( A TACIT ,%IITE ALLIANCE HAS BE5 A NI<TM>E = PLANN]S = A LONG TIME4 

,9 /ATES LACK+ MAJOR HYDROC>BON RES]VES1 TACTICS V>Y1 TYPICALLY KEEP+ TO A /&>D GAME PLAN :5 A FAVOR$ DICTATOR IS 9 TR\BLE3 SUPPORT HIM AS LONG AS POSSIBLE1 & :5 ?AT CANNOT BE DONE1 ISSUE R++ DECL>ATIONS ( LOVE ( DEMOCRACY & HUMAN RI<TS -- & !N TRY TO SALVAGE AS MU* ( ! REGIME AS POSSIBLE4 

,! SC5>IO IS BOR+LY FAMILI>3 ,M>COS1 ,DUVALI]1 ,*UN1 ,CEASESCU1 ,MOBUTU1 ,SUH>TO1 & MANY O!RS4 ,& TODAY1 ,TUNISIA & ,EGYPT4 ,SYRIA IS A T\< NUT TO CRACK & !RE IS NO CLE> ALT]NATIVE TO ! DICTATOR%IP ?AT W\LD SUPPORT ,U4,S4 GOALS4 ,YEM5 IS A MORASS :]E DIRECT 9T]V5TION W\LD PROBABLY CREATE EV5 GREAT] PROBLEMS = ,WA%+TON4 ,SO !RE /ATE VIOL5CE ELICITS ONLY PI\S DECL>ATIONS4 

,LIBYA IS A DIFF]5T CASE4 ,LIBYA IS RI* 9 OIL1 & ?\< ! ,U,S & ,U,K HAVE (T5 GIV5 QUITE REM>KABLE SUPPORT TO ITS CRUEL DICTATOR1 RI<T TO ! PRES5T1 HE IS NOT RELIABLE4 ,!Y W\LD MU* PREF] A MORE OB$I5T CLI5T4 ,FUR!RMORE1 ! VA/ T]RITORY ( ,LIBYA IS MO/LY UNEXPLOR$1 & OIL SPECIALI/S BELIEVE IT MAY HAVE RI* UNTAPP$ RES\RCES1 :I* A MORE DEP5DABLE GOV]NM5T MI<T OP5 TO ,WE/]N EXPLOITATION4 

,:5 A NONVIOL5T UPRIS+ BEGAN1 ,QADDAFI CRU%$ IT VIOL5TLY1 & A REBELLION BROKE \T ?AT LIB]AT$ ,B5<AZI1 ,LIBYA'S SECOND L>GE/ CITY1 & SEEM$ AB\T TO MOVE ON TO ,QADDAFI'S /RON<OLD 9 ! ,WE/4 ,HIS =CES1 H[EV]1 REV]S$ ! C\RSE ( ! CONFLICT & W]E AT ! GATES ( ,B5<AZI4 ,A SLAU<T] 9 ,B5<AZI WAS LIKELY1 & AS ,OBAMA'S ,MIDDLE ,EA/ ADVIS] ,D5NIS ,ROSS PO9T$ \T1 0EV]YONE W\LD BLAME US = IT40 ,?AT W\LD BE UNACCEPTABLE1 AS W\LD A ,QADDAFI MILIT>Y VICTORY 5HANC+ HIS P[] & 9DEP5D5CE4 ,! ,U,S !N JO9$ 9 ,U,N ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL RESOLUTION #aigc CALL+ = A NO-FLY ZONE1 TO BE IMPLEM5T$ BY ,FRANCE1 ! ,U,K1 & ! ,U,S1 ) ! ,U,S SUPPOS$ TO MOVE TO A SUPPORT+ ROLE4 

,!RE WAS NO EF=T TO LIMIT ACTION TO 9/ITUT+ A NO-FLY ZONE1 OR EV5 TO KEEP )9 ! BROAD] M&ATE ( RESOLUTION #a#i#g#c4 

,! TRIUMVIRATE AT ONCE 9T]PRET$ ! RESOLUTION AS AU?ORIZ+ DIRECT P>TICIPATION ON ! SIDE ( ! REBELS4 ,A CEASEFIRE WAS IMPOS$ BY =CE ON ,QADDAFI'S =CES1 BUT NOT ON ! REBELS4 ,ON ! CONTR>Y1 !Y W]E GIV5 MILIT>Y SUPPORT AS !Y ADVANC$ TO ! ,WE/1 SOON SECUR+ ! MAJOR S\RCES ( ,LIBYA'S OIL PRODUCTION1 & POIS$ TO MOVE ON4 

,! BLATANT DISREG>D ( ,U,N #a#i#g#c1 FROM ! />T BEGAN TO CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES = ! PRESS AS IT BECAME TOO GL>+ TO IGNORE4 ,9 ! ,N,Y,T1 = EXAMPLE1 ,K>IM ,FAHIM & ,DAVID ,KIRKPATRICK 7,M>* #b#i7 WOND]$ 0H[ ! ALLIES C\LD JU/IFY AIR/RIKES ON ,COLONEL ,QADDAFI'S =CES >\ND .<HIS TRIBAL C5T].> ,SURT IF1 AS SEEMS TO BE ! CASE1 !Y 5JOY WIDESPREAD SUPPORT 9 ! CITY & POSE NO ?REAT TO CIVILIANS40 ,ANO!R TE*NICAL DIFFICULTY IS ?AT ,U,N,S,C #aigc 0CALL$ = AN >MS EMB>GO ?AT APPLIES TO ! 5TIRE T]RITORY ( ,LIBYA1 :I* MEANS ?AT ANY \TSIDE SUPPLY ( >MS TO ! OPPOSITION W\LD HAVE TO BE COV]T0 7BUT O!RWISE UNPROBLEMATIC74 

,SOME >GUE ?AT OIL CANNOT BE A MOTIVE BECAUSE ,WE/]N COMPANIES W]E GRANT$ ACCESS TO ! PRIZE UND] ,QADDAFI4 ,?AT MISCON/RUES ,U,S CONC]NS4 ,! SAME C\LD HAVE BE5 SAID AB\T ,IRAQ UND] ,SADDAM1 OR ,IRAN & ,CUBA = MANY YE>S1 /ILL TODAY4 ,:AT ,WA%+TON SEEKS IS :AT ,BU% ANN\NC$3 CONTROL1 OR AT LEA/ DEP5DABLE CLI5TS4 ,U,S & ,BRITI% 9T]NAL DOCUM5TS /RESS ?AT 0! VIRUS ( NATIONALISM0 IS !IR GREATE/ FE>1 NOT JU/ 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ BUT EV]Y:]E4 ,NATIONALI/ REGIMES MI<T CONDUCT ILLEGITIMATE EX]CISES ( SOV]EIGNTY1 VIOLAT+ ,GR& ,>EA PR9CIPLES4 ,& !Y MI<T SEEK TO DIRECT RES\RCES TO POPUL> NE$S1 AS ,NASS] SOMETIMES ?REAT5$4 

,IT IS WOR? NOT+ ?AT ! ?REE TRADITIONAL IMP]IAL P[]S - ,FRANCE1 ,U,K1 ,U,S - >E ALMO/ ISOLAT$ 9 C>RY+ \T !SE OP]ATIONS4 ,! TWO MAJOR /ATES 9 ! REGION1 ,TURKEY & ,EGYPT1 C\LD PROBABLY HAVE IMPOS$ A NO-FLY ZONE BUT >E AT MO/ (F]+ TEPID SUPPORT TO ! TRIUMVIRATE MILIT>Y CAMPAIGN4 ,! ,GULF DICTATOR%IPS W\LD BE HAPPY TO SEE ! ]RATIC ,LIBYAN DICTATOR DISAPPE>1 BUT AL?\< LOAD$ ) ADVANC$ MILIT>Y H>DW>E 7P\R$ 9 BY ! ,U,S & ,U,K TO RECYCLE PETRODOLL>S & 5SURE OB$I5CE71 !Y >E WILL+ TO (F] NO MORE ?AN TOK5 P>TICIPATION 7BY ,QAT>74 

,:ILE SUPPORT+ ,U,N,S,C #a#i#g#c1 ,AFRICA -- AP>T FROM ,U,S ALLY ,RW&A -- IS G5]ALLY OPPOS$ TO ! WAY IT WAS 9/ANTLY 9T]PRET$ BY ! TRIUMVIRATE1 9 SOME CASES /RONGLY SO4 ,= REVIEW ( POLICIES ( 9DIVIDUAL /ATES1 SEE ,*>LES ,ONYANGO-,OBBO 9 ! ,K5YAN J\RNAL ,EA/ ,AFRICAN 7HTTP3_/_/ALLAFRICA4COM_//ORIES_/#b#a#a#c#b#h#a#d#b4HTML74 

,BEYOND ! REGION !RE IS LITTLE SUPPORT4 ,LIKE ,RUSSIA & ,*9A1 ,BRAZIL AB/A9$ FROM ,U,N,S,C #a#i#g#c1 CALL+ 9/EAD = A FULL CEASE-FIRE & DIALOGUE4 ,9DIA TOO AB/A9$ FROM ! ,U,N RESOLUTION ON GR\NDS ?AT ! PROPOS$ MEASURES W]E LIKELY TO 0EXAC]BATE AN ALREADY DIFFICULT SITUATION = ! PEOPLE ( ,LIBYA10 & ALSO CALL$ = POLITICAL MEASURES RA!R ?AN USE ( =CE4 ,EV5 ,G]MANY AB/A9$ FROM ! RESOLUTION4 

,ITALY TOO WAS RELUCTANT1 9 P>T PRESUMABLY BECAUSE IT IS HI<LY DEP5D5T ON ITS OIL CONTRACTS ) ,QADDAFI - & WE MAY RECALL ?AT ! FIR/ PO/-,WORLD ,W> ,I G5OCIDE WAS CONDUCT$ BY ,ITALY1 9 ,EA/]N ,LIBYA1 N[ LIB]AT$1 & P]HAPS RETA9+ SOME MEMORIES4 

,CAN AN ANTI-9T]V5TIONI/ :O BELIEVES 9 SELF DET]M9ATION ( NATIONS & PEOPLE EV] LEGITIMATELY SUPPORT AN 9T]V5TION1 EI!R BY ! ,U4,N4 OR P>TICUL> C\NTRIES8 

,!RE >E TWO CASES TO CONSID]3 7#a7 ,U,N 9T]V5TION & 7#b7 9T]V5TION )\T ,U,N AU?ORIZATION4 ,UNLESS WE BELIEVE ?AT /ATES >E SACROSANCT 9 ! =M ?AT HAS BE5 E/ABLI%$ 9 ! MOD]N WORLD 7TYPICALLY BY EXTREME VIOL5CE71 ) RI<TS ?AT OV]RIDE ALL O!R IMAG9ABLE CONSID]ATIONS1 !N ! ANSW] IS ! SAME 9 BO? CASES3 ,YES1 9 PR9CIPLE AT LEA/4 ,I SEE NO PO9T 9 DISCUSS+ ?AT BELIEF1 SO WILL DISMISS IT4 

,) REG>D TO ! FIR/ CASE1 ! ,*>T] & SUBSEQU5T RESOLUTIONS GRANT ! ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL CONSID]ABLE LATITUDE = 9T]V5TION1 & IT HAS BE5 UND]TAK51 ) REG>D TO ,S\? ,AFRICA1 = EXAMPLE4 ,?AT ( C\RSE DOES NOT 5TAIL ?AT EV]Y ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL DECISION %\LD BE APPROV$ BY 0AN ANTI-9T]V5TIONI/ :O BELIEVES 9 SELF-DET]M9ATION02 O!R CONSID]ATIONS 5T] 9 9DIVIDUAL CASES1 BUT AGA91 UNLESS CONTEMPOR>Y /ATES >E ASSIGN$ ! /ATUS ( VIRTUALLY HOLY 5TITIES1 ! PR9CIPLE IS ! SAME4 

,AS = ! SECOND CASE - ! ONE ?AT >ISES ) REG>D TO ! TRIUMVIRATE 9T]PRETATION ( ,U,N #a#i#g#c1 & MANY O!R EXAMPLES - !N ! ANSW] IS AGA9 ,YES1 9 PR9CIPLE AT LEA/1 UNLESS WE TAKE ! GLOBAL /ATE SY/EM TO BE SACROSANCT 9 ! =M E/ABLI%$ 9 ! ,U,N ,*>T] & O!R TREATIES4 

,!RE IS1 ( C\RSE1 ALWAYS A V]Y HEAVY BURD5 ( PRO( ?AT MU/ BE MET TO JU/IFY =CEFUL 9T]V5TION1 OR ANY USE ( =CE4 ,! BURD5 IS P>TICUL>LY HI< 9 CASE 7#b71 9 VIOLATION ( ! ,*>T]1 AT LEA/ = /ATES ?AT PR(ESS TO BE LAW-ABID+4 ,WE %\LD BE> 9 M9D1 H[EV]1 ?AT ! GLOBAL HEGEMON REJECTS ?AT /ANCE1 & IS SELF-EXEMPT$ FROM ! ,U,N & ,O,A,S ,*>T]S1 & O!R 9T]NATIONAL TREATIES4 ,9 ACCEPT+ ,I,C,J JURISDICTION :5 ! ,C\RT WAS E/ABLI%$ 7UND] ,U,S 9ITIATIVE7 9 #a#i#d#f1 ,WA%+TON EXCLUD$ ITSELF FROM *>GES ( VIOLATION ( 9T]NATIONAL TREATIES1 & LAT] RATIFI$ ! ,G5OCIDE ,CONV5TION ) SIMIL> RES]VATIONS - ALL POSITIONS ?AT HAVE BE5 UPHELD BY 9T]NATIONAL TRIBUNALS1 S9CE !IR PROC$URES REQUIRE ACCEPTANCE ( JURISDICTION4 ,MORE G5]ALLY1 ,U,S PRACTICE IS TO ADD CRUCIAL RES]VATIONS TO ! 9T]NATIONAL TREATIES IT RATIFIES1 EFFECTIVELY EXEMPT+ ITSELF4 

,CAN ! BURD5 ( PRO( BE MET8 ,!RE IS LITTLE PO9T 9 AB/RACT DISCUSSION1 BUT !RE >E SOME REAL CASES ?AT MI<T QUALIFY4 ,9 ! PO/-,WORLD ,W> ,I,I P]IOD1 !RE >E TWO CASES ( RESORT TO =CE :I* - ?\< NOT QUALIFY+ AS HUMANIT>IAN 9T]V5TION - MI<T LEGITIMATELY BE SUPPORT$3 ,9DIA'S 9VASION ( ,EA/ ,PAKI/AN 9 #a#i#g#a1 & ,VIETNAM'S 9VASION ( ,CAMBODIA 9 ,DECEMB] #a#i#g#h1 9 BO? CASES1 5D+ MASSIVE ATROCITIES4 ,!SE EXAMPLES1 H[EV]1 DO NOT 5T] ! ,WE/]N CANON ( 0HUMANIT>IAN 9T]V5TION0 BECAUSE !Y SUFF] FROM ! FALLACY ( WRONG AG5CY3 !Y W]E NOT C>RI$ \T BY ! ,WE/4 ,:AT IS MORE1 ! ,U,S BITT]LY OPPOS$ !M & SEV]ELY PUNI%$ ! MISCREANTS :O 5D$ ! SLAU<T]S 9 TODAY'S ,BANGLADE% & :O DROVE ,POL ,POT \T ( ,CAMBODIA JU/ AS HIS ATROCITIES W]E PEAK+4 ,VIETNAM WAS NOT ONLY BITT]LY CONDEMN$ BUT ALSO PUNI%$ BY A ,U,S-SUPPORT$ ,*9ESE 9VASION1 & BY ,U,S-,U,K MILIT>Y & DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT = ! ,KHM] ,R\GE ATTACK+ ,CAMBODIA FROM ,?AI BASES4 

,:ILE ! BURD5 ( PRO( MI<T BE MET 9 !SE CASES1 IT IS NOT EASY TO ?9K ( O!RS4 ,9 ! CASE ( 9T]V5TION BY ! TRIUMVIRATE ( IMP]IAL P[]S ?AT >E CURR5TLY VIOLAT+ ,U,N #aigc 9 ,LIBYA1 ! BURD5 IS P>TICUL>LY HEAVY1 GIV5 !IR HORRIFY+ RECORDS4 ,NONE!LESS1 IT W\LD BE TOO /RONG TO HOLD ?AT IT CAN NEV] BE SATISFI$ 9 PR9CIPLE - UNLESS1 ( C\RSE1 WE REG>D NATION-/ATES 9 !IR CURR5T =M AS ESS5TIALLY HOLY4 ,PREV5T+ A LIKELY MASSACRE 9 ,B5<AZI IS NO SMALL MATT]1 :ATEV] ONE ?9KS ( ! MOTIVES4 

,CAN A P]SON CONC]N$ ?AT A C\NTRY'S DISSID5TS NOT BE MASSACR$ SO !Y REMA9 ABLE TO SEEK SELF DET]M9ATION EV] LEGITIMATELY OPPOSE AN 9T]V5TION ?AT IS 9T5D$1 :ATEV] ELSE IT 9T5DS1 TO AV]T SU* A MASSACRE8 

,EV5 ACCEPT+1 = ! SAKE ( >GUM5T1 ?AT ! 9T5T IS G5U9E1 MEET+ ! SIMPLE CRIT]ION ,I M5TION$ AT ! \TSET1 ,I DON'T SEE H[ TO ANSW] AT ?IS LEVEL ( AB/RACTION3 IT DEP5DS ON CIRCUM/ANCES4 ,9T]V5TION MI<T BE OPPOS$1 = EXAMPLE1 IF IT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MU* WORSE MASSACRE4 ,SUPPOSE1 = EXAMPLE1 ?AT ,U,S LEAD]S G5U9ELY & HONE/LY 9T5D$ TO AV]T A SLAU<T] 9 ,HUNG>Y 9 #aief BY BOMB+ ,MOSC[4 ,OR ?AT ! ,KREML9 G5U9ELY & HONE/LY 9T5D$ TO AV]T A SLAU<T] 9 ,EL ,SALVADOR 9 ! #a#i#hS BY BOMB+ ! ,U,S4 ,GIV5 ! PR$ICTABLE CONSEQU5CES1 WE W\LD ALL AGREE ?AT ?OSE 79CONCEIVABLE7 ACTIONS C\LD BE LEGITIMATELY OPPOS$4 

,MANY PEOPLE SEE AN ANALOGY BETWE5 ! ,KOSOVO 9T]V5TION ( #aiii & ! CURR5T 9T]V5TION 9 ,LIBYA4 ,CAN Y\ EXPLA9 BO? ! SIGNIFICANT SIMIL>ITIES1 FIR/1 & !N ! MAJOR DIFF]5CES1 SECOND8 

,MANY PEOPLE DO 9DE$ SEE SU* AN ANALOGY1 A TRIBUTE TO ! 9CR$IBLE P[] ( ! ,WE/]N PROPAG&A SY/EMS4 ,! BACKGR\ND = ! ,KOSOVO 9T]V5TION HAPP5S TO BE UNUSUALLY WELL DOCUM5T$4 ,?AT 9CLUDES TWO DETAIL$ ,/ATE ,DEP>TM5T COMPILATIONS1 EXT5SIVE REPORTS FROM ! GR\ND BY ,KOSOVO ,V]IFICATION ,MISSION 7WE/]N7 MONITORS1 RI* S\RCES FROM ,N,A,T,O & ! ,U,N1 A ,BRITI% ,P>LIAM5T>Y ,9QUIRY1 & MU* ELSE4 ,! REPORTS & /UDIES CO9CIDE V]Y CLOSELY ON ! FACTS4 

,9 BRIEF1 !RE HAD BE5 NO SUB/ANTIAL *ANGE ON ! GR\ND 9 ! MON?S PRIOR TO ! BOMB+4 ,ATROCITIES W]E COMMITT$ BO? BY ,S]BIAN =CES & BY ! ,K,L,A GU]RILLAS MO/LY ATTACK+ FROM NEI<BOR+ ,ALBANIA - PRIM>ILY ! LATT] DUR+ ! RELEVANT P]IOD1 AT LEA/ ACCORD+ TO HI< ,BRITI% AU?ORITIES 7,BRITA9 WAS ! MO/ HAWKI% MEMB] ( ! ALLIANCE74 ,! MAJOR ATROCITIES 9 ,KOSOVO W]E NOT ! CAUSE ( ! ,N,A,T,O BOMB+ ( ,S]BIA1 BUT RA!R ITS CONSEQU5CE1 & A FULLY ANTICIPAT$ CONSEQU5CE4 ,N,A,T,O COMM&] ,G5]AL ,WESLEY ,CL>K HAD 9=M$ ! ,:ITE ,H\SE WEEKS BE=E ! BOMB+ ?AT IT W\LD ELICIT A BRUTAL RESPONSE BY ,S]BIAN =CES ON ! GR\ND1 & AS ! BOMB+ BEGAN1 TOLD ! PRESS ?AT SU* A RESPONSE WAS 0PR$ICTABLE40 

,! FIR/ ,U,N-REGI/]$ REFUGEES \TSIDE ,KOSOVO W]E WELL AFT] ! BOMB+ BEGAN4 ,! 9DICTM5T ( ,MILOSEVIC DUR+ ! BOMB+1 BAS$ L>GELY ON ,U,S-,U,K 9TELLIG5CE1 CONF9$ ITSELF TO CRIMES AFT] ! BOMB+1 ) ONE EXCEPTION1 :I* WE KN[ C\LD NOT BE TAK5 S]I\SLY BY ,U,S-,U,K LEAD]S1 :O AT ! SAME MOM5T W]E ACTIVELY SUPPORT+ EV5 WORSE CRIMES4 ,FUR!RMORE1 !RE WAS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE ?AT A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION MI<T HAVE BE5 9 REA*3 9 FACT1 ! ,U,N RESOLUTION IMPOS$ AFT] #< DAYS ( BOMB+ WAS PRETTY MU* A COMPROMISE BETWE5 ! ,S]BIAN & ,N,A,T,O POSITION AS IT BEGAN4 

,ALL ( ?IS1 9CLUD+ !SE IMPECCABLE WE/]N S\RCES1 IS REVIEW$ 9 SOME DETAIL 9 MY BOOK ,A ,NEW ,G5]ATION ,DRAWS ! ,L9E4 ,CORROBORAT+ 9=MATION HAS APPE>$ S9CE4 ,?US ,DIANA ,JOHN/ONE REPORTS A LETT] TO ,G]MAN ,*ANCELLOR ,ANGELA ,M]KEL ON ,OCTOB] #b#f1 #bg BY ,DIETM> ,H>TWIG1 :O HAD BE5 HEAD ( ! ,EUROPEAN MISSION 9 ,KOSOVO BE=E IT WAS )DRAWN ON ,M>* #b AS ! BOMB+ WAS ANN\NC$1 & WAS 9 A V]Y GOOD POSITION TO KN[ :AT WAS HAPP5+4 ,HE WROTE3 

0,NOT A S+LE REPORT SUBMITT$ 9 ! P]IOD FROM LATE ,NOVEMB] #aiih UP TO ! EVACUATION ON ! EVE ( ! W> M5TION$ ?AT ,S]BS HAD COMMITT$ ANY MAJOR OR SY/EMATIC CRIMES AGA9/ ,ALBANIANS1 NOR !RE WAS A S+LE CASE REF]R+ TO G5OCIDE OR G5OCIDE-LIKE 9CID5TS OR CRIMES4 ,QUITE ! OPPOSITE1 9 MY REPORTS ,I HAVE REPEAT$LY 9=M$ ?AT1 CONSID]+ ! 9CREAS+LY MORE FREQU5T ,K,L,A ATTACKS AGA9/ ! ,S]BIAN EXECUTIVE1 !IR LAW 5=CEM5T DEMON/RAT$ REM>KABLE RE/RA9T & DISCIPL9E4 ,! CLE> & (T5 CIT$ GOAL ( ! ,S]BIAN ADM9I/RATION WAS TO OBS]VE ! ,MILOSEVIC-,HOLBROOKE ,AGREEM5T .<( ,OCTOB] #a#i#i#h.> TO ! LETT] SO NOT TO PROVIDE ANY EXCUSE TO ! 9T]NATIONAL COMMUNITY TO 9T]V5E4 444 ,!RE W]E HUGE 'DISCREPANCIES 9 P]CEPTION' BETWE5 :AT ! MISSIONS 9 ,KOSOVO HAVE BE5 REPORT+ TO !IR RESPECTIVE GOV]NM5TS & CAPITALS1 & :AT ! LATT] !REAFT] RELEAS$ TO ! M$IA & ! PUBLIC4 ,?IS DISCREPANCY CAN ONLY BE VIEW$ AS 9PUT TO LONG-T]M PREP>ATION = W> AGA9/ ,YUGOSLAVIA4 ,UNTIL ! TIME ,I LEFT ,KOSOVO1 !RE NEV] HAPP5$ :AT ! M$IA &1 ) NO LESS 9T5SITY ! POLITICIANS1 W]E REL5TLESSLY CLAIM+4 ,ACCORD+LY1 UNTIL #b ,M>* #aiii !RE WAS NO REASON = MILIT>Y 9T]V5TION1 :I* R5D]S ILLEGITIMATE MEASURES UND]TAK5 !REAFT] BY ! 9T]NATIONAL COMMUNITY4 ,! COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR ( ,E,U ,MEMB] ,/ATES PRIOR TO1 & AFT] ! W> BROKE \T1 GIVES RISE TO S]I\S CONC]NS1 BECAUSE ! TRU? WAS KILL$1 & ! ,E,U LO/ RELIABILITY40 

,HI/ORY IS NOT QUANTUM PHYSICS1 & !RE IS ALWAYS AMPLE ROOM = D\BT4 ,BUT IT IS R>E = CONCLUSIONS TO BE SO FIRMLY BACK$ AS !Y >E 9 ?IS CASE4 ,V]Y REVEAL+LY1 IT IS ALL TOTALLY IRRELEVANT4 ,! PREVAIL+ DOCTR9E IS ?AT ,N,A,T,O 9T]V5$ TO /OP E?NIC CLEANS+ - ?\< SUPPORT]S ( ! BOMB+ :O TOL]ATE AT LEA/ A NOD TO ! RI* FACTUAL EVID5CE QUALIFY !IR SUPPORT BY SAY+ ! BOMB+ WAS NECESS>Y TO /OP POT5TIAL ATROCITIES3 WE MU/ !RE=E ACT TO ELICIT L>GE-SCALE ATROCITIES TO /OP ONES ?AT MI<T OCCUR IF WE DO NOT BOMB4 ,& !RE >E EV5 MORE %OCK+ JU/IFICATIONS4 

,! REASONS = ?IS VIRTUAL UNANIMITY & PASSION >E FAIRLY CLE>4 ,! BOMB+ CAME AFT] A VIRTUAL ORGY ( SELF-GLORIFICATION & AWE ( P[] ?AT MI<T HAVE IMPRESS$ ,KIM IL-,SUNG4 ,I'VE REVIEW$ IT ELSE:]E1 & ?IS REM>KABLE MOM5T ( 9TELLECTUAL HI/ORY %\LD NOT BE ALL[$ TO REMA9 9 ! OBLIVION TO :I* IT HAS BE5 CONSIGN$4 ,AFT] ?IS P]=MANCE1 !RE SIMPLY HAD TO BE A GLORI\S D5\EM5T4 ,! NOBLE ,KOSOVO 9T]V5TION PROVID$ IT1 & ! FICTION MU/ BE ZEAL\SLY GU>D$4 

,RETURN+ TO ! QUE/ION1 !RE IS AN ANALOGY BETWE5 ! SELF-S]V+ DEPICTIONS ( ,KOSOVO & ,LIBYA1 BO? 9T]V5TIONS ANIMAT$ BY NOBLE 9T5T 9 ! FICTIONALIZ$ V]SION4 ,! UNACCEPTABLE REAL WORLD SUGGE/S RA!R DIFF]5T ANALOGIES4 

,SIMIL>LY1 MANY PEOPLE SEE AN ANALOGY BETWE5 ! ON-GO+ ,IRAQ 9T]V5TION & ! CURR5T 9T]V5TION 9 ,LIBYA4 ,9 ?IS CASE TOO1 CAN Y\ EXPLA9 BO? ! SIMIL>ITIES1 & DIFF]5CES8 

,I DON'T SEE MEAN+FUL ANALOGIES H]E EI!R1 EXCEPT ?AT TWO ( ! SAME /ATES >E 9VOLV$4 ,9 ! CASE ( ,IRAQ1 ! GOALS W]E ?OSE ?AT W]E F9ALLY CONC$$4 ,9 ! CASE ( ,LIBYA1 IT IS LIKELY ?AT ! GOAL IS SIMIL> 9 AT LEA/ ONE RESPECT3 ! HOPE ?AT A RELIABLE CLI5T REGIME WILL RELIABLY SUPPORT$ ,WE/]N GOALS & PROVIDE ,WE/]N 9VE/ORS ) PRIVILEG$ ACCESS TO ,LIBYA'S RI* OIL WEAL? - :I*1 AS NOT$1 MAY GO WELL BEYOND :AT IS CURR5TLY KN[N4 

,:AT DO Y\ EXPECT1 9 COM+ WEEKS1 TO SEE HAPP5+ 9 ,LIBYA &1 9 ?AT CONTEXT1 :AT DO Y\ ?9K \<T TO BE ! AIMS ( AN ANTI 9T]V5TIONI/ & ANTI W> MOVEM5T 9 ! ,U4,S4 REG>D+ ,U4,S4 POLICIES8 

,IT IS ( C\RSE UNC]TA91 BUT ! LIKELY PROSPECTS N[ 7,M>* #b#i7 >E EI!R A BREAKUP ( ,LIBYA 9TO AN OIL-RI* ,EA/]N REGION HEAVILY DEP5D5T ON ! ,WE/]N IMP]IAL P[]S & AN IMPOV]I%$ ,WE/ UND] ! CONTROL ( A BRUTAL TYRANT ) FAD+ CAPACITY1 OR A VICTORY BY ! ,WE/]N-BACK$ =CES4 ,9 EI!R CASE1 SO ! TRIUMVIRATE PRESUMABLY HOPES1 A LESS TR\BLESOME & MORE DEP5D5T REGIME WILL BE 9 PLACE4 ,! LIKELY \TCOME IS DESCRIB$ FAIRLY ACCURATELY1 ,I ?9K BY ! ,LONDON-BAS$ ,>AB J\RNAL AL-,QUDS AL-,>ABI 7,M>* #b#h74 ,:ILE RECOGNIZ+ ! UNC]TA9TY ( PR$ICTION1 IT ANTICIPATES ?AT ! 9T]V5TION MAY LEAVE ,LIBYA ) 0TWO /ATES1 A REBEL-HELD OIL-RI* ,EA/ & A POV]TY-/RICK51 ,QADHAFI-L$ ,WE/444 ,GIV5 ?AT ! OIL WELLS HAVE BE5 SECUR$1 WE MAY F9D \RSELVES FAC+ A NEW ,LIBYAN OIL EMIRATE1 SP>SELY 9HABIT$1 PROTECT$ BY ! ,WE/ & V]Y SIMIL> TO ! ,GULF'S EMIRATE /ATES40 ,OR ! ,WE/]N-BACK$ REBELLION MI<T PROCE$ ALL ! WAY TO ELIM9ATE ! IRRITAT+ DICTATOR4 

,?OSE CONC]N$ = PEACE1 JU/ICE1 FRE$OM & DEMOCRACY %\LD TRY TO F9D WAYS TO L5D SUPPORT & ASSI/ANCE TO ,LIBYANS :O SEEK TO %APE !IR [N FUTURE1 FREE FROM CON/RA9TS IMPOS$ BY EXT]NAL P[]S4 ,WE CAN HAVE HOPES AB\T ! DIRECTIONS !Y %\LD PURSUE1 BUT !IR FUTURE %\LD BE 9 !IR H&S4 

,FROM 3 ,!,AN>*I/,LIBR>Y4ORG4 

,*RONOLOGY 3 
,NOVEMB] #c1 #ba 3 ,ON ,LIBYA & ! ,UNFOLD+ ,CRISES -- ,PUBLICATION4 
,JULY #a#a1 #bai 3 ,ON ,LIBYA & ! ,UNFOLD+ ,CRISES -- ,ADD$4 
,JANU>Y #c1 #bbb 3 ,ON ,LIBYA & ! ,UNFOLD+ ,CRISES -- ,UPDAT$4 

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