,! ,POLITICS & ,REALITY ( ! ,PEAK ,OIL ,SC>E 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,*EKOV ,FE5EY 

,TEXT 3 

,PEAK ,OIL ,!ORY HAS BE5 >\ND S9CE ! #a#i#gS4 ,SOME ?9K WE HAVE ALREADY REA*$ 'PEAK OIL'1 O!RS ?9K IT WILL HAPP5 ) ! NEXT TW5TY-FIVE YE>S4 ,! !ORY >GUES ?AT :5 WE REA* 'PEAK OIL' ! RATE AT :I* WE EXTRACT OIL FROM ! E>? 7MEASUR$ 9 MILLIONS ( B>RELS P] DAY7 WILL REA* A MAXIMUM & !REAFT] WILL />T TO DROP4 

,AS ! RATE AT :I* WE USE OIL IS CURR5TLY CLOSE TO ! RATE AT :I* WE EXTRACT IT1 ! PO9T ( PEAK OIL WILL CO9CIDE OR BE CLOSELY FOLL[$ BY ! WORLD CONSUM+ MORE OIL ?AN IT IS PRODUC+4 ,AS OIL RES]VES >E V]Y LIMIT$1 )9 MON?S !RE SIMPLY WILL NOT BE 5\< OIL AVAILABLE4 

,= ?IS REASON ,PEAK ,OIL ,!ORY T5DS TO COME AS P>T ( A PACKAGE :I* IS AB\T MORE ?AN ! PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION ( OIL4 ,IT ALSO EXPRESSES FE>S AB\T H[ SOCIETY WILL BE AFFECT$ :5 ! OIL RUNS %ORT4 ,9 ESS5CE1 ,PEAK ,OIL ,!ORY IS BO? AB\T ! ECONOMICS ( OIL & A PESSIMI/IC VISION ( ! FUTURE4 ,9 MANY CASES ,PEAK ,OIL IS A !ORY ?AT CATA/ROPHE IS AB\T TO HIT HUMANITY4 ,9 ! FIR/ HALF ( ?IS >TICLE1 ,I ASK IF \R FUTURE IS 9EVITABLY PESSIMI/IC4 

,9 ! SECOND HALF ( ! >TICLE ,I WILL EXAM9E ! PEAK OIL CLAIMS !MSELVES4 ,H[ BAD DO ?+S REALLY SEEM TO BE8 ,?IS >TICLE WILL DEMON/RATE ?AT ! DEP? ( POL>IZATION OV] ?IS ISSUE IS SU* ?AT EV5 CLAIM$ 'SCI5TIFIC FACTS' CANNOT BE TRU/$ TO BE ACCURATE BUT RA!R T5D TO REFLECT ! IDEOLOGICAL PO9T ( VIEW ( ?OSE (F]+ !M4 ,ON ! ONE H&1 A DECREAS+ NUMB] ( PEOPLE D5Y !RE IS ANY PROBLEM ) OIL SUPPLY4 ,ON ! O!R >E A GR[+ NUMB] :O PR$ICT PEAK )9 A FEW YE>S & A CATACLYSMIC EFFECT ON CIVILIZATION AS A RESULT4 

,:Y %\LD AN>*I/S C>E AB\T ?IS >GUM5T8 ,WELL1 IF SU* A CRA% W]E TO HAPP5 IT W\LD BE A DISA/]1 NOT ONLY = ! WORLD8S POPULATION BUT ALSO = ! AN>*I/ PROJECT4 ,OIL PROVIDES MO/ ( ! 5]GY ?AT MAKES CURR5T /&>DS ( LIV+ POSSIBLE4 ,! NATURE ( ! CRA% W\LD SET WORK] AGA9/ WORK] 9 ! FI<T = ACCESS TO ! LIMIT$ RES\RCES ! RUL+ CLASS W\LD ALL[ TO TRICKLE D[N4 ,&1 AS ! V>I\S NATIONAL RUL+ CLASSES F\<T TO GA9 CONTROL OV] ! RES\RCES ( O!R NATIONS1 WORK]S W\LD BE PITT$ AGA9/ EA* O!R 9 MORE & MORE DE/RUCTIVE W>S4 

,BE=E WE PANIC ?\< WE NE$ TO CONSID] H[ REAL ALL ( ?IS IS4 

,P>T ,A3 ,WE >E ALL GO+ TO DIE6 

  

,! IDEA ?AT ! HUMAN POPULATION GR[? W\LD CAUSE IT TO GO 9TO DECL9E IS NOT A NEW ONE4 ,AN #a#h? C5TURY ,5GLI% ECONOMI/ CALL$ ,JOHN ,MAL?US FIR/ MADE IT4 ,! >GUM5TS HE PUT =W>D !N >E V]Y SIMIL> TO ! >GUM5TS MADE BY ! ,PEAK ,OIL !ORI/S4 ,IT8S WOR? GO+ BACK TO ! BEG9N+ & LOOK+ AT ,MAL?US8 IDEAS AS P]HAPS ! MOD]N DAY !ORI/S >E EQUALLY WRONG 9 ! ASSUMPTIONS !Y %>E AB\T HUMAN SOCIETY4 

,:Y DOES ,MAL?US MATT]8 

  

,9 ! LATE #a#h? C5TURY ,MAL?US PRODUC$ ! FIR/ REALLY SY/EMATIC LOOK AT ! QUE/ION ( HUMAN POPULATION4 ,BY LOOK+ AT ! PATT]NS ( POPULATION *ANGES 9 V>I\S SPECIES HE CONCLUD$ ?AT1 9 ! ABS5CE ( PR$ATORS1 ! POPULATION ( ANY SPECIES W\LD 9CREASE EXPON5TIALLY1 UNTIL IT EXHAU/S ! RES\RCES ON :I* IT DEP5DS1 UPON :I* PO9T ! POPULATION WILL COLLAPSE DRAMATICALLY4 ,BAS$ UPON ?IS !ORY HE PR$ICT$ ?AT ! HUMAN POPULATION W\LD CONT9UE TO GO ?R\< CYCLES ( EXPON5TIAL GR[?1 FOLL[$ BY SUDD5 COLLAPSE4 

,:5 APPLY+ ?IS !ORY TO HUMANS1 ,MAL?US ADD$ 9 A /RONG MORAL DIM5SION4 ,! L[] CLASSES T5D$ TO HAVE MORE *ILDR51 & HE >GU$ ?IS WAS A SIGN ( !IR MORAL DEG5]ACY4 ,H5CE ! POPULATION COLLAPSES ?AT W\LD BE EXP]I5C$ ?R\< FAM9ES & 5VIRONM5TAL DE/RUCTION W]E EVID5CE ( ,GOD PUNI%+ ! POOR = !IR IMMORAL WAYS4 ,?IS \TLOOK PROV$ P>TICUL>LY ATTRACTIVE TO ! RUL+ CLASSES :O C\LD PRES5T FAM9ES AMONG !IR SUBJECTS AS P>T ( ! NATURAL ORD] ( ?+S1 OR EV5 AS AN EXAMPLE ( ,GOD'S RI<TE\S WRA? AGA9/ S9N]S4 

,= EXAMPLE1 DUR+ ! ,IRI% FAM9E ( ! #a#h#d'S1 ,5GLI% POLITICIANS W]E ABLE TO JU/IFY !IR LACK ( 9T]V5TION 9 ,MAL?USIAN T]MS -- ! FAM9E BE+1 AFT] ALL1 ,GOD'S NATURAL MEANS ( KEEP+ ! POPULATION 9 *ECK & SIMULTANE\SLY PUNI%+ ! S9N]S1 RA!R ?AN HAV+ ANY?+ TO DO ) ! POLICIES ( ! GOV]NM5T4 ,AS ,MAL?US PUT IT1 0?IS CON/ANTLY SUBSI/+ CAUSE ( P]IODICAL MIS]Y HAS EXI/$ EV] S9CE WE HAVE HAD ANY HI/ORIES ( MANK9D1 DOES EXI/ AT PRES5T1 & WILL = EV] CONT9UE TO EXI/04 ,?US ! UPP] CLASS CONT9U$ TO EXPORT FOOD FROM ,IREL& AS HUNDR$S ( ?\S&S />V$ TO DEA?4 

,TODAY ,MAL?US IS A DEEPLY DISCR$IT$ !ORI/4 ,HIS 9T]M+L+ ( SCI5TIFIC OBS]VATION ) HI<LY SUBJECTIVE MORALIZ+ IS OBVI\S TO US AS NO?+ MORE ?AN A CRASS JU/IFICATION ( P[] & PRIVILEGE )\T RESPONSIBILITY4 ,H[EV]1 P]HAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY1 HE TURN$ \T TO BE WRONG4 ,S9CE ! TIME ( ,MAL?US1 ! HUMAN POPULATION HAS NOT SUFF]$ ANY ( HIS PR$ICT$ COLLAPSES4 ,9/EAD ! WORLD'S POPULATION HAS CONT9U$ TO GR[ & GR[4 ,FROM LESS ?AN A BILLION 9 ! #a#h? C5TURY1 IT HAS GR[N TO OV] #f BILLION TODAY4 ,?IS TR5D HAS BE5 SL[+ BUT ALL ! SAME ! ,U,N PR$ICTS ?AT1 ON CURR5T TR5DS1 ! WORLD'S POPULATION WILL BE APPROA*+ #a BILLION BY #b#e4 

,H[EV]1 NO MATT] H[ DISCR$IT$ ! IDEAS ( ,MAL?US RI<TLY >E TODAY1 IT IS WOR? LOOK+ AT ! REASONS :Y HIS PR$ICTIONS W]E SO WRONG4 ,FIR/LY1 WE N[ KN[ ?AT POPULATION TR5DS >E MU* MORE COMPLICAT$ ?AN ,MAL?US IMAG9$4 ,H[EV]1 WE DO KN[ ?AT 9 G5]AL1 UNLESS !Y >E *ECK$ BY PR$ATION OR COMPETITION = RES\RCES1 POPULATIONS ( SPECIES DO T5D TO FOLL[ A BASIC ,MAL?USIAN CYCLE ( /EADY GR[? FOLL[$ BY SUDD5 DECL9E4 ,= EXAMPLE1 MOD]N EVOLUTION>Y BIOLOGY PROVIDES PL5TY ( EVID5CE ?AT ! HUMAN POPULATION HAS COLLAPS$ TO RELATIVELY T9Y NUMB]S -- AS FEW AS ?\S&S ( PEOPLE -- ON SEV]AL OCCASIONS 9 ! LA/ #a1 YE>S4 

,H[EV]1 MOD]N HUMANS HAVE A*IEV$ A MA/]Y OV] ! E>?1 :I* ALL[S US TO CONSCI\SLY AFFECT & 9CREASE \R FOOD SUPPLY4 ,BUT ,MAL?US WAS AW>E ( ?IS UNIQUELY HUMAN TRAIT1 AS HE HIMSELF PUT IT3 0! MA9 PECULI>ITY :I* DI/+UI%ES MAN FROM O!R ANIMALS1 IS ! MEANS ( HIS SUPPORT1 IS ! P[] :I* HE POSSESSES ( V]Y GREATLY 9CREAS+ !SE MEANS40 ,SO :]E EXACTLY DID HE GO WRONG8 ,:Y HAS ! POPULATION CONT9U$ TO 9CREASE AT AN EV]-GREAT] RATE S9CE HIS TIME1 RA!R ?AN COLLAPS+ AS HE PR$ICT$8 

,UND]E/IMAT+ ! P[] ( HUMANS TO 9NOVATE 

  

,MAL?US8 BASIC SCI5TIFIC ]ROR WAS 9 UND]E/IMAT+ ! RATE AT :I* HUMAN +5UITY C\LD 9CREASE ! AM\NT ( RES\RCES AVAILABLE TO !M4 ,AL?\< ,MAL?US & HIS PE]S 9 ! RUL+ CLASS W]E QUITE CONT5T TO ALL[ L>GE *UNKS ( ! POPULATION TO />VE TO DEA? EV]Y SO (T51 SEE+ ?IS AS ,GOD'S WILL1 MANY ( ?OSE PEOPLE ?REAT5$ W]E NOT4 ,! P]IOD S9CE #age HAS BE5 P>TICUL>LY M>K$ \T FROM ! P]IODS ?AT CAME BE=E BY AN ALMO/ CON/ANT SCI5TIFIC REVOLUTION4 

,AS RELIGION HAS WAN$ 9 9FLU5CE1 PEOPLE BECAME LESS 9CL9$ TO WRITE (F HUMAN CATA/ROPHES AS ,GOD'S WILL & 9/EAD W]E MOV$ TO LOOK = ! MAT]IAL CAUSES ( HUMAN SUFF]+ & WAYS TO AVOID !M4 ,MANY ( !SE ADVANCES HAVE RE/$ UPON HUMAN BE+S8 UNIQUE ABILITY TO COOP]ATE 9 VA/LY COMPLEX SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS & \R ABILITY TO CONSCI\SLY ADAPT \R BEHAVIOR4 ,SO1 = EXAMPLE1 ! D\BL+ ( LIFE EXPECTANCY 9 ! ,WE/ [ES MO/ TO ! 5ORM\S PUBLIC HEAL? & SANITATION 9FRA/RUCTURE ?AT HAS BE5 BUILT UP 9 ! LA/ #a YE>S 9 ! ,WE/1 AS WELL AS TO ! COLLECTIVE APPLI$ BRA9-P[] ( SOME ( ! BRI<TE/ HUMAN M9DS OV] SEV]AL C5TURIES 9 ORD] TO DEVISE ! SOLUTIONS UPON :I* WE DEP5D4 

,MAL?US WAS WRONG1 HUMAN +5UITY OV]CAME ! IRON LAWS ( NATURE HE CLAIM$ TO DISCOV]4 ,PEAK OIL IS A NEW ,MAL?USIAN PANIC :]E ACCESS TO 5]GY IS ! LIMIT+ FACTOR ?AT ACCESS TO FOOD ONCE WAS4 ,9 ! NEXT SECTION1 ,I FOCUS ON 5]GY AS A LIMIT+ FACTOR4 ,! /RONGE/ P>T ( ! PEAK OIL >GUM5T IS ?AT WE >E REA*+ ! LIMITS ( CONV5TIONAL OIL -- ?IS MAY BE TRUE4 ,H[EV]1 ! >GUM5TS >E FLAW$ :5 !Y >GUE ?AT !RE IS NO ALT]NATIVE TO ?IS OIL4 ,MAK+ ROOM = ! HUMAN +5UITY ?AT ,MAL?US IGNOR$1 ,I WILL LOOK 9 P>TICUL> AT ! ROLE ( ALT]NATIVE 5]GY RES\RCES & ! USE ( 'UNCONV5TIONAL' OIL RES\RCES4 

,P>T ,B3 ,5]GY & ! LIMITS ON GR[? 

  

,AS SOME PEOPLE HAVE APPLI$ !MSELVES TO ! PROBLEM ( EXTRACT+ RES\RCES FROM ! WORLD & TURN+ !M TO HUMAN USES1 O!RS HAVE BE5 WORK+ \T ! BASIC LAWS ( ! UNIV]SE & TRY+ TO UND]/& \R PLACE )9 IT4 ,WE KN[1 = EXAMPLE1 ?AT \R SPECIES IS GO+ TO BE BASICALLY LIMIT$ TO ! RES\RCES ( ?IS PLANET = ! =ESEEABLE FUTURE4 ,WE ALSO KN[ ?AT ONE ( ! FUNDAM5TAL RES\RCES UPON :I* HUMANS DEP5D IS 5]GY4 

,! E>? ULTIMATELY RECEIVES ALL ( ITS 5]GY FROM ! NUCLE> REACTIONS 9 ! SUN4 ,! 5]GY FROM ! SUN IS G5]ALLY V]Y H>D TO EFFICI5TLY CAPTURE & TURN 9TO A =M ?AT IS USEFUL1 & ! VA/ MAJORITY IS EI!R ABSORB$ BY ! OCEANS OR ! ATMOSPH]E AS HEAT & OR REFLECT$ BACK 9TO SPACE4 ,H[EV]1 A T9Y FRACTION ( ! 5]GY ?AT ! ,E>? HAS RECEIV$ FROM ! SUN OV] ! LA/ BILLION YE>S HAS BE5 TRAPP$ ON ! E>? 9 ! =M ( FOSSIL FUELS4 ,!SE FUELS >E P>TICUL> 9 ?AT !Y >E EXTREMELY EASY TO EXTRACT 5]GY FROM -- JU/ ADD FIRE4 ,!IR ORGANIC NATURE ALSO MEANS ?AT !Y >E USEFUL 9 O!R >EAS ( ! PROCESS ( ! TRANS=MATION ( SUN-5]GY 9TO HUMAN CONSUMABLE 5]GY -- 9 P>TICUL> PETRO*EMICALS :I* >E CRUCIAL TO MOD]N F]TILIZ]S4 ,!IR NATURE ( BE+ RELATIVELY /ABLE & EASY TO TRANSPORT 9 NORMAL ATMOSPH]IC CONDITIONS MAKES !M P>TICUL>LY SUITABLE = TRANSPORTATION -- ANO!R CRUCIAL P>T 9 ! TRANS=MATION ( SUN-5]GY 9TO HUMAN CONSUMABLE 5]GY4 

,! BIG PROBLEM IS ?AT :ILE WE CONT9UE TO REL5TLESSLY EXP& \R USE ( ! E>?'S RES\RCES1 WE CAN BE ABSOLUTELY C]TA9 ?AT OIL PRODUCTION WILL EV5TUALLY PEAK4 ,BAS$ ON ! BE/ AVAILABLE CURR5T DATA1 ?IS WILL HAPP5 SOON] RA!R ?AN LAT]4 ,AL?\<1 ! EXACT TIM+ ( ! PEAK 9 GLOBAL CONV5TIONAL OIL PR$ICTION -- KN[N AS 0PEAK OIL0 IS HEAVILY DISPUT$ -- MANY CR$IBLE SCI5TI/S CLAIM ?AT IT WILL HAPP5 )9 DECADES & SEV]AL SUGGE/ ?AT IT MAY ALREADY HAVE OCCURR$4 

,:Y IS ,PEAK ,OIL A PROBLEM8 

  

,( C\RSE OIL WILL NOT SUDD5LY RUN \T ONE DAY1 LEAV+ ALL ! PETROL PUMPS DRY4 ,9/EAD IT WILL REA* A RELATIVELY %>P PEAK ( PRODUCTION1 BEYOND :I* IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EFFICI5TLY EXTRACT ANY MORE OIL1 & PRODUCTION WILL SOME:AT GRADUALLY DECL9E FROM ?AT PO9T ON4 ,UND] CAPITALISM 0EFFICI5TLY EXTRACT0 SIMPLY MEANS ! ABILITY TO MAKE SUFFICI5T PR(IT FROM ! EXTRACTION4 ,! MAJOR OIL COMPANIES CURR5TLY AB&ON PRODUCTIVE FIELDS :5 PR(IT DROPS BEL[ #b.04.<#a.> ,OIL FIELDS >E AB&ON$ BE=E !Y >E EMPTY = ?IS REASON4 

,! !ORY ?AT PEAK OIL WAS IMM95T WAS FIR/ PUT =W>D BY ,U,S GEO-PHYSICI/1 ,M4 ,K+ ,HUBB]T AS LONG AGO AS #a#i#e#f4 ,HE PR$ICT$ ?AT OIL PRODUCTION 9 ! CONT95TAL ,UNIT$ ,/ATES W\LD PEAK BETWE5 #aife & #a#i#g2 & ?AT WORLD PRODUCTION W\LD PEAK 9 #b4 ,HIS PR$ICTION PROV$ SLI<TLY 9ACCURATE1 AS ,U,S PRODUCTION ACTUALLY PEAK$ 9 #aiga & WORLD OIL PRODUCTION WILL PROBABLY PEAK SOMETIME AFT] #b#d4 ,H[EV]1 ASIDE FROM ! DETAILS ( EXACTLY :5 ?IS PEAK W\LD BE REA*$1 HIS PR$ICTIONS = ! PATT]NS ( FL[ TURN$ \T TO BE L>GELY ACCURATE4 ,ACCORD+ TO ! ,9T]NATIONAL ,5]GY ,AG5CY'S 7,I,E,A7 ,WORLD ,5]GY ,\TLOOK #bd ,REPORT3 0,FOSSIL FUELS CURR5TLY SUPPLY MO/ ( ! WORLD'S 5]GY1 & >E EXPECT$ TO CONT9UE TO DO SO = ! =ESEEABLE FUTURE4 ,:ILE SUPPLIES >E CURR5TLY ABUNDANT1 !Y WON'T LA/ =EV]4 ,OIL PRODUCTION IS 9 DECL9E 9 #cc ( ! #dh L>GE/ OIL PRODUC+ C\NTRIES1 4440 

,CAPITALI/ SPECULATIONS 

  

,A CLUE ?AT WE >E NOT FAC+ ! 5D ( CIVILIZATION IS F\ND 9 ! M>KETS ( CAPITALISM4 ,OIL IS ! MAJOR GLOBAL COMMODITY &1 LIKE O!R COMMODITIES1 IT IS B\<T & SOLD ON ! M>KETS YE>S BE=E IT EV5 COMES \T ( ! GR\ND4 ,IF ANY SECTION ( CAPITALISM SECRETLY KNEW ?AT A PEAK OIL CRISIS WAS COM+ 9 ! SORT ( WOR/ CASE SC5>IOS ?AT >E PR$ICT$1 WE CAN BE SURE ?AT SECTION W\LD BE SEEK+ TO MAKE 5ORM\S PR(ITS \T ( ?IS KN[L$GE4 

,9 ! FUTURES M>KET ?IS W\LD BE V]Y SIMPLE TO DO4 ,AT ! TIME.<#b.> ( WRIT+1 = 9/ANCE1 ,I CAN BUY A B>REL ( ,LI<T ,CRUDE ,OIL ON ! ,NEW ,YORK ,M,E,X M>KET = #fe DOLL>S .<#c.>4 ,?IS ACTUALLY GIVES ME ?AT B>REL ( OIL 9 ,DECEMB] #bab -- #f YE>S AWAY4 ,& ! PRICE IS ONLY #c DOLL>S MORE ?AN ! PRICE QUOT$ = A B>REL 9 ,JANU>Y #b#g4 

,9DIVIDUAL CAPITALI/S HAVE MADE VA/ =TUNES ?R\< SPOTT+ UND] PRIC$ FUTURE ITEMS & BUY+ !SE 9 ORD] TO RE-SELL :5 ! PRICES RISES4 ,9 ,SEPTEMB] #aiib ,GEORGE ,SOROS SOLD %ORT MORE ?AN @s#aBN WOR? ( P\NDS /]L+ BECAUSE HE RECKON$ IT WAS OV] VALU$4 ,HE WAS RI<T1 ,/]L+ WAS =C$ \T ( ! ,EUROPEAN ,EX*ANGE ,RATE ,ME*ANISM & IT IS E/IMAT$ ,SOROS MADE AT LEA/ @s#a4#aBN PR(IT6 ,9 ,JULY #a#i#i#g1 ) O!R SPECULATORS1 HE DID SOME?+ SIMIL> TO ,?AIL& TRIGG]+ 0,ASIA'S WOR/ F9ANCIAL CRISIS 9 DECADES04 ,?IS ILLU/RATES ?AT1 EV5 IF ! CO/ TO CAPITALISM AS A :OLE ?R\< SU* BEHAVIOR WILL BE A MAJOR ECONOMIC CRA%1 9DIVIDUAL CAPITALI/S WILL /ILL 5GAGE 9 SU* TRADES4 

,IF ANY CAPITALI/ BELIEV$ ?AT OIL SUPPLIES W]E GO+ TO CRA% !Y W\LD REALIZE ?AT BY BUY+ SAY #a MILLION B>RELS TODAY = #fe DOLL>S !Y C\LD MAKE #abh MILLION IF ?OSE B>RELS W]E WOR? SAY #b DOLL>S 9 #b#a#b4 ,& IF ! #bd PEAK PR$ICTIONS >E RI<T1 #b DOLL>S W\LD BE V]Y LITTLE TO PAY = A B>REL BY #bab -- IT C\LD BE ?AT V]Y MU* BIGG] PR(ITS C\LD BE MADE4 

,SO :Y IS IT ?AT NO CAPITALI/ SEEMS TO BELIEVE 9 PEAK OIL 5\< TO PUT !IR MONEY :]E !IR M\? IS8 ,UP TO A C\PLE ( YE>S BACK1 IGNORANCE MI<T HAVE BE5 CLAIM$ AS AN EXPLANATION4 ,BUT 9 REC5T MON?S ! IDEA ( ,PEAK ,OIL HAS BE5 DISCUSS$ 9 ',! ,ECONOMI/'1 PROBABLY ! MAJOR 9T]NATIONAL BUS9ESS MAGAZ9E4 ,MA!W ,SIMMONS1 AN 5]GY ADVIS] TO ,GEORGE ,W4 ,BU%1 HAS PUBLI%$ A BOOK ADVOCAT+ ,PEAK ,OIL !ORY1 :I* HAS BE5 WIDELY REVIEW$ 9 O!R PUBLICATIONS4 ,!RE IS NO LONG] ANY GR\NDS TO CLAIM ?AT PEAK OIL !ORY IS BE+ HU%$ UP4 

,SO :Y IS ! FUTURE PRICE ( OIL NOT %OOT+ ?R\< ! RO( AS CAPITALI/S SPECULATE ) ! AIM ( MAK+ BILLIONS8 ,PROBABLY BECAUSE V]Y FEW >E CONV9C$1 SOME EV5 >GUE ! OPPOSITE4 ,! ,ECONOMI/ 9 ITS >TICLE ON ! SUBJECT CITES A REPORT BY ,CAMBRIDGE ,5]GY ,RESE>* ,ASSOCIATES :I* 0CONCLUDES ?AT ! WORLD8S OIL-PRODUCTION CAPACITY C\LD 9CREASE BY AS MU* AS #a#eM B>RELS P] DAY 7BPD7 BETWE5 #be & #ba 44 ! BIGGE/ SURGE 9 HI/ORY04.<#d.> 

,FROM ?IS & O!R >TICLES1 ! C\NT] PO9T TO ! ,PEAK ,OIL >GUM5T CAN BE SKET*$ AS FOLL[S4 ,! EXPANSION ( OIL RES]VES 9 ! FUTURE WILL RELY ON SMALL] FIELDS & ON TE*NOLOGY EXTRACT+ A MU* GREAT] P]C5TAGE ( OIL FROM EXI/+ FIELDS -- ?IS IS ALREADY HAPP5+ 9 ! ,NOR? ,SEA4 ,RIS+ OIL PRICES WILL MEAN ?AT IT BECOMES ECONOMIC TO ALSO ACCESS ! VA/ UNCONV5TIONAL ,OIL ,DEPOSITS4 ,ALREADY MAJOR PRODUCTION HAS />T$ \T ( ! ,OIL ,S&S 9 ,ALB]TA & CURR5T PRICES ( OV] #e DOLL>S A B>REL MEAN ?AT ! VA/ ,V5EZUELA HEAVY T> DEPOSITS >E N[ ECONOMIC TO EXPLOIT4 

,:Y IS OIL SO IMPORTANT 

  

,! BIG SC>E CLAIM$ ) PEAK OIL !ORY IS ?AT !RE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REALI/IC PROSPECT ( US SIMPLY REPLAC+ ALL OIL-S\RC$ 5]GY ) AN ALT]NATIVE 5]GY S\RCE 9 ! NE> FUTURE4 ,BUT :Y CALL ?IS A SC>E8 ,BECAUSE REPLAC+ 0ALL OIL S\RC$ 5]GY0 IS NOT :AT IS REQUIR$4 ,:AT IS REQUIR$ IS = A MIXTURE ( O!R FOSSIL FUELS 7GAS1 COAL71 UNCONV5TIONAL OIL S\RCES1 ALT]NATIVE 5]GY1 & GREAT] EFFICI5CY 9 5]GY USE BE+ ABLE TO TAKE UP :ATEV] %ORTFALL OCCURS :5 PEAK OIL IS REA*$4 ,AS ! PEAK 9 CONV5TIONAL OIL SUPPLY WILL REALLY BE A PLATEAU1 ! PO9T AT :I* ALL OR EV5 MO/ OIL W\LD HAVE TO BE SUB/ITUT$ WILL NOT OCCUR = MANY DECADES4 

,TO UND]/& :Y OIL IS SU* AN IMPORTANT SUB/ANCE TO US1 WE NE$ TO EXAM9E ! BASIC 5]GY EQUATION ?AT DEF9ES ! USEFULNESS ( FUELS4 ,FUELS >E SUB/ANCES FROM :I* WE CAN EXTRACT 5]GY4 ,H[EV]1 IT ALSO CO/S A C]TA9 AM\NT ( 5]GY TO EXTRACT ! FUEL & TO DELIV] IT TO :]E ! 5]GY IS NE$$4 ,! RATIO BETWE5 ! AM\NT ( 5]GY EXTRACT$ 9 ! FUEL & ! 5]GY EXP5D$ 9 EXTRACT+ IT IS KN[N AS ! ,5]GY ,RETURN$ ON ,5]GY ,9VE/$ 7,],O,E,I7.<#e.>4 ,IF IT TAKES MORE 5]GY TO EXTRACT ! FUEL ?AN CAN BE EXTRACT$ FROM ! FUEL1 ! ,],O,E,I IS LESS ?AN #a4 ,= EXAMPLE1 HYDROG5 FUEL CELLS HAVE A ,],O,E,I ( LESS ?AN 4#i -- MEAN+ ?AT Y\ CAN ONLY GET AT MO/ #i.0 ( ! 5]GY BACK \T ?AT Y\ PUT 9TO MAK+ IT4 ,?IS MEANS !Y >E ONLY ( USE = /OR+ 5]GY G5]AT$ BY O!R MEANS1 ON !IR [N !Y CONSUME RA!R ?AN SUPPLY 5]GY4 ,SO :ILE !Y MAY PROVIDE SOLUTIONS TO 5ABLE MASS TRANSPORT )\T OIL 9 ! FUTURE1 HYDROG5 CELLS CANNOT PROVIDE 5]GY P] SE4 

,],O,E,I IS1 ( C\RSE1 DIFFICULT TO MEASURE S9CE ! TOTAL AM\NT ( 5]GY EXP5D$ 9 ! PROCESS MU/ BE CONSID]$4 ,= EXAMPLE1 ONE MU/ 9CLUDE ! AM\NTS ( 5]GY EXP5D$ 9 CON/RUCTION ( DAMS1 W9DMILLS1 P[] /ATIONS1 P[] CABL+1 ACCESS ROADS OR NUCLE> PLANTS4 ,! FACT ?AT ! 9DU/RIES CONC]N$ ) G5]AT+ ?IS P[] HAVE A VE/$ 9T]E/ 9 PRODUC+ RESE>* ?AT %[S !IR TE*NOLOGY TO HAVE A P>TICUL>LY GOOD ,],O,E,I DOES NOT HELP 9 E/IMAT+ ?IS4 ,&1 ON ! O!R H&1 PROPON5TS ( ,OIL & ,NUCLE> 5]GY HAVE A VE/$ 9T]E/ 9 %[+ 'ALT]NATIVE 5]GIES' NOT TO BE AN ALT]NATIVE4 ,H[EV]1 REG>DLESS ( H[ ONE LOOKS AT ! FIGURES1 IT IS CLE> ?AT OIL WAS ONCE 9 A CLASS ( ITS [N4 

,PLUMMET+ ,],O,E,I 

  

,OIL DISCOV]IES 9 #ai HAD AN ,],O,E,I ( OV] #a1 MEAN+ ?AT = EV]Y B>REL ( OIL ?AT Y\ US$ TO F9D ! OIL1 REF9E IT & TRANSPORT IT TO ! CU/OM]1 Y\ GOT #a B>RELS \T ( ! GR\ND 9 T]MS ( 5]GY4 ,) FRE% OIL FIELDS1 LITTLE MORE WAS REQUIR$ ?AN TO DRILL A HOLE 9 ! GR\ND & PUMP ! OIL \T4 ,BY ! #a#i#g'S1 AS ! OIL 9 ! MO/ ACCESSIBLE >EAS BECAME DEPLET$1 ! ,],O,E,I HAD FALL5 TO AB\T #b.<#f.>4 ,9 O!R WORDS ! #a#i#g'S ,],O,E,I ( OIL WAS #b.0 ( ITS #a#i'S VALUE4 

,9 T]MS ( ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION1 HYDRO-ELECTRICITY PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT NET GA9 ( 5]GY1 ) AN E/IMAT$ ,],O,E,I ( #a4 ,H[EV]1 ! SUPPLY ( RIV]S ?AT CAN BE USEFULLY DAMM$ TO GA9 5]GY IS ALREADY MU* CLOS] TO EXHAU/ION ?AN ! OIL SUPPLY4 ,?IS IS TRUE = MAJOR DAMS1 REC5TLY ADDITIONAL P[] HAS />T$ TO BE G5]AT$ ?R\< ! CON/RUCTION ( M9OR DAMS1 :I* >E SIMIL> TO WEIRS.<#g.>4 

,ON ! SUPPLY SIDE ?IS MEANS ?AT A RIS+ P]C5TAGE ( 5]GY WILL COME FROM ALT]NATIVE S\RCES4 ,MO/ IMPORTANTLY W9D1 WAVE1 BIO FUEL & SOL> P[]4 ,W9D P[] IS ALREADY UND]GO+ A RAPID EXPANSION -- LA/ YE> ,D5M>K1 ! WORLD LEAD]1 G5]AT$ #b#c.0 ( ITS ELECTRICITY FROM W9D P[]4 ,GRE5PEACE E/IMATES ?AT BY #bb #a#b.0 ( ! WORLD'S ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION WILL COME FROM W9D P[]4.<#h.> 

,ALT]NATIVE 5]GY 

  

,PEAK OIL !ORI/S ALONGSIDE ! ,OIL & ,NUCLE> 9DU/RIES HAVE BE5 TRY+ TO DEBUNK ALT]NATIVE 5]GY S\RCES4 ,AT ONE EXTREME ( ?OSE :O SEEK TO GA9 FROM ! POLITICS ( PANIC & FE>1 ! ,BRITI% ,NATIONAL ,P>TY CLAIM 9 !IR PEAK OIL /UDY ?AT ! ,],O,E,I ( W9D HAS IS AB\T #b.<#i.>4 ,NUMB]S LIKE ?IS T5D TO BE REPRODUC$ AGA9 & AGA9 BUT !Y DON'T BE> PROP] 9VE/IGATION4 ,AN OV]VIEW >TICLE :I* LOOK$ AT #da DIFF]5T ANALYZES F\ND AN OP]ATIONAL ,],O,E,I = W9D ( #a#h1 SOME #i TIMES ?IS CLAIM$ FIGURE4.<#a.> 

,A MAJOR PROBLEM 9 DISCUSS+ ! FEASIBILITY ( !SE S\RCES IS ! V]Y DIFF]5T FACTS PRES5T$ BY ?OSE :O TAKE ONE SIDE ( ! DEBATE AS AGA9/ ANO!R4 ,PEAK OIL !ORI/S FREQU5TLY CLAIM SOL> PANELS REQUIRE ALMO/ AS MU* 5]GY TO CON/RUCT AS !Y SUPPLY 9 !IR LIFETIME1 I4E4 ?AT !RE ,],O,E,I IS CLOSE TO #a4 ,ON ! O!R H&1 PROPON5TS ( SOL> P[] CLAIM ,],O,E,I'S AS HI< AS #ag ) PAYBACK = PANELS ?US A*IEV$ 9 AS LITTLE AS #a4#g YE>S4.<#a#a.> 

,! L[ E/IMATE ,],O,E,I FIGURES >E AL>M+ BUT SO 9 FACT W\LD ! FIVE FOLD DROP 9 ! ,],O,E,I ( OIL BETWE5 #ai & #aig )\T ! B5EFIT ( H9DSI<T4 ,GIV5 !SE FIGURES ALONE1 & AN IDEA ( H[ IMPORTANT OIL WAS TO ! ECONOMY1 AN ALI5 OBS]V] MI<T WELL GUESS ?AT PRODUCTION HAD CRA%$ BY #a#i#g4 ,9/EAD IT MASSIVELY 9CREAS$ 9 ?AT P]IOD -- CLE>LY !RE IS A NE$ = CAUTION 9 ASSUM+ ?AT EV5 A FUTURE FIVE FOLD DROP 9 ,],O,E,I W\LD AUTOMATICALLY MEANS A SIMIL> CRA% 9 PRODUCTION4 

,?IS IS LEAV+ ASIDE ?AT ?IS FIVEFOLD DROP BASICALLY COMES FROM SELECT+ ! E/IMATES ( ,],O,E,I MO/ FAVORABLE TO ! IDEA ( PEAK OIL AS A CATACLYSM4 ,IF1 9/EAD1 Y\ SELECT ! SORT ( E/IMATES ?AT %[ W9D P[] TO HAVE A MU* BETT] ,],O,E,I !N OIL Y\ />T TO GET A DIFF]5T /ORY4 ,! ,],O,E,I FIGURES >E MASSAG$ TO PUT =W>D A CONV9C+ >GUM5T1 BUT ! MORE Y\ EXAM9E !M ! LESS CONV9C+ ?AT >GUM5T BECOMES4 

,IS !RE MORE OIL \T !RE8 

  

,:5 Y\ EXAM9E 9 DETAIL ! TEXTS ON ,PEAK ,OIL1 Y\ REALIZE ?AT ! PEAK PR$ICT$ IS = CONV5TIONAL OIL4 ,:AT DOES CONV5TIONAL OIL MEAN8 ,BASICALLY CONV5TIONAL OIL IS :AT WE ALL ?9K ( :5 WE ?9K ( AN OIL FIELD4 ,IT IS ! OIL ?AT CAN BE OBTA9$ BY DRILL+ A HOLE 9 ! GR\ND & PUMP+ \T ! LIQUID TO BE F\ND !RE4 ,P>T ( ! REASON ! ,],O,E,I = OIL WAS COMP>ATIVELY HI< 9 ! #a#iS WAS ?AT ! EASIE/ FIELDS !N W]E ACTUALLY UND] SUFFICI5T PRESSURE TO DRIVE ! OIL \T ( ! WELLS4 

,9 ADDITION TO SU* CONV5TIONAL OIL !RE >E O!R S\RCES1 & ! POT5TIAL RES]VES 9 !SE >E MASSIVE4 ,!Y COMPRISE OIL ?AT IS V]Y DIFFICULT TO EXTRACT1 TYPICALLY BECAUSE IT IS B\ND UP 9 S& OR %ALE DEPOSITS4 ,EXTRACT+ ?IS SORT ( OIL IS AN OP]ATION MORE LIKE OP5 CA/ M9+ ?AN CONV5TIONAL OIL DRILL+4 ,& ! S& OR %ALE EXTRACT$ !N HAS TO BE SUBJECT$ TO AN 5]GY 9T5SIVE PROCESS TO SWEAT ! OIL \T4 ,?IS CURR5TLY GIVES ,],O,E,IS ( UP TO #c.<#a#b.>4 ,! L>GE/ DEPOSITS >E 9 ,V5EZUELA & ,CANADA1 & !SE >E ALREADY PRODUC+ OV] A MILLION B>RELS A DAY4 ,IT'S E/IMAT$ ?AT !SE TWO DEPOSITS CONTA9 TWICE AS MU* OIL AS ALL REMA9+ CONV5TIONAL OIL RES]VES1 AL?\< ONLY SOME ( ?IS IS EASILY REA*$ BY /RIP M9+4 

,O!R PROBLEMS & SOLUTIONS 

  

,IT IS >GU$ ?AT ELECTRIC P[] IS NOT NE>LY AS USEFUL AS OIL IS4 ,ELECTRICITY REQUIRES P[] CABLES1 OR BULKY BATT]IES TO BE TRANSPORT$4 ,!RE MAY BE >EAS ( ! WORLD'S ECONOMY :]E !RE IS NO POSSIBILITY ( REPLAC+ OIL ) ELECTRICITY AS AN 5]GY SUPPLY4 ,BUT ! SAME FACTORS ACTUALLY GIVE AN ADVANTAGE TO SOL> & W9D P[]$ G5]ATION ?AT CAN BE G5]AT$ ON ISOLAT$ SITES ( CONSUMPTION NOT ALREADY ON A P[] GRID4 ,! RAPID DEVELOPM5T ( PLUG-9 HYBRID C>S & P]HAPS HYDROG5 FUEL CELLS SUGGE/S ?AT ! USE ( ELECTRICITY TO P[] VEHICLES IS A LOT MORE FEASIBLE ?AN 9ITIALLY ?\<T4 

,ON ! DEM& SIDE1 RIS+ PRICES HAVE MADE L>GE C>S LESS AF=DABLE & 5C\RAGE EFFICI5CIES 9 FUEL ECONOMY4 ,?IS MEANS ?AT DEM& = SMALL] C>S & = HYBRID C>S WILL RISE 7HOME CONV]SIONS HAVE ALREADY DEMON/RAT$ ?AT UP TO#a MILES P] GALLON CAN BE A*IEV$ ) HYBRIDS ?AT CAN BE PLUGG$ 9TO ! MA9S74 ,HOMES1 (FICES & APPLIANCES WILL BECOME MORE 5]GY EFFICI5T & 9CREAS+LY WILL G5]ATE AT LEA/ SOME ( ! 5]GY !Y CONSUME ?R\< ALT]NATIVE TE*NOLOGIES4 ,! RATIO ( OIL USE TO ,G,D,P 7A MEASURE ( PRODUCTION7 WILL CONT9UE TO FALL 7EV5 9 ! GAS GUZZL+ ,U,S,A IT HALV$ BETWE5 #aiga & #b#b74 ,?IS ALL[S = LIMIT$ ECONOMIC EXPANSION )\T ADDITIONAL QUANTITIES ( 5]GY AS LESS 5]GY IS US$ P] UNIT PRODUC$4 

,P>T ,C3 ,! POLITICS ( ! *OICE 

  

,! PROBLEM = AN>*I/S IS ?AT !SE TWO SEP>ATE POSSIBLE FUTURES >E SO DIFF]5T ?AT IT IS H>D TO KN[ H[ TO JUDGE :]E ! TRU? MI<T LIE4 ,! WOR/-CASE SC5>IOS >GU$ = ,PEAK OIL !ORY >E ESS5TIALLY ! 5D ( CIVILIZATION AS WE KN[ IT4 ,ON ! OPPOSITE EXTREME1 !RE >E /ILL ?OSE :O D5Y ! POSSIBILITY ( ANY FUTURE LONG-T]M 5]GY %ORTAGE4 ,! COMPLETE LACK ( AGREEM5T EV5 ON ! 'FACTS' ?AT W\LD SEEM TO BE /RAI<T =W>D -- ! ,],O,E,I'S = CONV5TION & UNCONV5TIONAL OILS1 SOL> & W9D P[] -- ILLU/RATE ! GREAT DIFFICULTY 9 *OOS+ BETWE5 !SE SC5>IOS4 

,= UND]/&ABLE REASONS1 SOME AN>*I/S HAVE EMBRAC$ PEAK OIL !ORY BECAUSE !Y SIMPLY BELIEVE ! CORPORATIONS >E LY+ & CANNOT BE TRU/$4 ,H[EV]1 = ! REASONS ALREADY \TL9$1 EV5 IF ?IS WAS ! CASE WE W\LD EXPECT 9DIVIDUAL GRE$Y CAPITALI/S TO BE BUY+ UP '*EAP' OIL FUTURES1 & SO F> !RE IS NO EVID5CE = ?IS4 

,SO F> ! EVID5CE IS NOT !RE TO UNCRITICALLY SUPPORT ! PEAK OIL PR$ICTIONS4 ,AN>*I/S NE$ TO MA9TA9 A CRITICAL ATTITUDE TO ! :OLE DEBATE4 ,9 ! MEANTIME WE CAN USE ! DEBATE ITSELF AS AN $UCATIONAL TOOL4 ,= 9/ANCE1 V]Y FEW IF ANY ( ! PEAK OIL PROPON5TS SEEM TO HAVE ?\<T AB\T :AT ! IMPACT ( PEAK OIL W\LD BE ON CLASS SOCIETY4 ,! MO/ COMMON PRES5TATIONS ( ! \TCOME SEEM TO SEE EV]YONE SUFF]+ EQUALLY4 ,BUT ! REALITY ?AT WE KN[ FROM EV]Y NATURAL DISA/] IS ?AT MO/ ( ! SUFF]+ FALLS ON ! WORK+ CLASS1 & ?AT ! CO/ ( ANY SOLUTIONS WILL ALSO BE IMPOS$ ON ! WORK+ CLASS4 

,! FACT ?AT ! LIKES ( ! ,B,N,P SEE SOME?+ TO BE GA9$ FROM CREAT+ A PANIC >\ND PEAK OIL %\LD ALSO GIVE US PAUSE = ?\<T4 ,PANICS >E NOT ! ATMOSPH]E 9 :I* A LIB]T>IAN SOCIETY CAN EASILY BE BUILT4 ,RA!R PANIC & ! FE> ( COLLAPSE ( CIVILIZATION >E PRECISELY ! REQUIREM5TS ( DICTATOR%IP & FASCISM :5 IT COMES TO =C+ POPULATIONS TO ACCEPT ?AT ! BOOT ON ! NECK IS BETT] ?AN ! ALT]NATIVES4 

,WE HAVE SE5 ,MAL?US WAS WRONG BECAUSE HE UND]E/IMAT$ HUMAN +5UITY4 ,H[EV]1 AL?\< IT IS TEMPT+ TO ATTRIBUTE ! DEVIATION ( HUMAN POPULATION FIGURES FROM ?OSE ,MAL?US PR$ICT$ AS PURELY BE+ A CONSEQU5CE ( ! SCI5TIFIC REVOLUTION ?AT CO9CID$ ) IT1 IT W\LD BE FOOLI% NOT TO NOTE ?AT ! P]IOD S9CE ,MAL?US MADE ! PR$ICTIONS ALSO SAW ! TRANS=MATION ( SOCIAL ORGANIZATION 9 ! GUISE ( CAPITALISM1 :I* HAS TODAY BECOME SO P]VASIVE AS TO BE ALMO/ 9VISIBLE4 ,= :ILE ! HUMAN ABILITY TO COOP]ATE & 9NOVATE HAS PROVID$ ! MAT]IALS1 CAPITALISM DET]M9$ ! WAY !Y W]E US$4 

,CONSUM]ISM IS BAS$ UPON PEOPLE'S DESIRE TO POSSESS & CONSUME RES\RCES & IT PROVIDES A CON/ANT 9C5TIVE = ECONOMIC DECISION MAK]S TO EXTRACT MORE RES\RCES FROM ! E>? & TO TRANS=M !M 9TO A =M ?AT IS USEFUL TO HUMANS4 ,?US1 MU* ( HUMAN 9NOVATION & SCI5TIFIC ?\<T HAS BE5 DEVOT$ TO 9CREAS+ ! SUPPLY ( RES\RCES AVAILABLE TO ! SPECIES & ?IS HAS WORK$ TO SU* AN EXT5T ?AT GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY HAS CONSI/5TLY 9CREAS$ FA/] ?AN ! HUMAN POPULATION S9CE ,MAL?US'S TIME4 

,?IS UNPREC$5T$ 9CREASE 9 AVAILABLE RES\RCES CAN BE SE5 AS HUMANS CONSCI\SLY DIV]T+ EV] MORE ( ! WORLD'S RES\RCES T[>DS !MSELVES4 ,?IS IS NOT )\T ITS CO/S4 ,?US ! LA/ FEW C5TURIES HAVE SE5 \R SPECIES ACTIVELY %AP+ ! PLANET'S 5VIRONM5T 9 ORD] TO PROVIDE ?IS EV]-GREAT] SUPPLY ( RES\RCES4 ,WE HAVE TRANS=M$ ECO-SY/EMS1 REPLAC$ CONT95T-SIZ$ =E/S ) F>MS1 CREAT$ VA/ >EAS ( ! WORLD 9 :I* ANY IMP$IM5TS :ATSOEV]1 :E!R GEOLOGICAL OR BIOLOGICAL1 HAVE BE5 RU?LESSLY EXCLUD$4 ,WE HAVE DRIV5 MO/ ( ! SPECIES ?AT MI<T COMPETE ) US AT ! TOP ( ! FOOD *A9 TO ! PO9T ( EXT9CTION4 

,AL?\< IT W\LD BE FOOLI% TO IMAG9E ?AT WE HAVE REA*$ ! LIMIT ( \R 9NOVATIONS 9 T]MS ( %AP+ ! PLANET TO \R NE$S1 ?IS IS AN 9H]5TLY RISKY R\TE TO TAKE FROM ! PO9T ( VIEW ( \R SPECIES' SURVIVAL4 ,! E>?'S ECOSY/EM & CLIMATE >E UNPR$ICTABLE COMPLEX SY/EMS & C\LD1 AT ANY /AGE1 UND]GO DRAMATIC *ANGE TO >RIVE AT A NEW PO9T ( EQUILIBRIUM -- A PO9T ?AT WILL PROBABLY BE F> LESS HOSPITABLE TO \R SPECIES -- DUE TO ! UNPR$ICTABLE RESULTS ( ! DRAMATIC *ANGES ?AT WE >E =C+ UPON ! E>?4 ,9 P>TICUL>1 MO/ SCI5TI/S BELIEVE ?AT IT IS LIKELY ! ATMOSPH]IC POLLUTANTS EMITT$ BY HUMAN 9DU/RY MAY CAUSE DRAMATIC *ANGES 9 \R CLIMATE ?R\< :AT IS KN[N AS GLOBAL W>M+4 

,! ELEPHANT 9 ! LIV+ ROOM 

  

,! 5]GY DEBATES PROVIDE A USEFUL ME*ANISM = EXPOS+ ! IRRATIONALITY ( CAPITALISM4 ,= 9/ANCE1 ! M>KET WILL DECIDE ! BALANCE BETWE5 SUPPLY & DEM& SOLUTIONS TO 5]GY NE$S4 ,YET ! MO/ PR(ITABLE SOLUTIONS -- LIKE US+ UNCONV5TIONAL OIL RES\RCES -- MAY ALSO BE ! ONES ?AT REQUIRE VA/ QUANTITIES ( 5]GY TO EXTRACT & :I* 9 !MSELVES1 & BECAUSE ( ?IS1 WILL RESULT 9 MASSIVE ADDITIONAL RELEASES ( ,C,O#b4 ,ALMO/ C]TA9LY IF ! POPULATION ( ! WORLD WAS TO DECIDE ON H[ TO BE/ FILL \R 5]GY NE$S WE W\LD NOT TAKE ! PA? IT LOOKS LIKE ! M>KET WILL DICTATE4 

,?IS IS ! KEY PO9T4 ,:E!R OR NOT ! PEAK 9 CONV5TIONAL OIL IS IMM95T OR DECADES AWAY1 ! ME?OD 9 :I* CAPITALISM WILL FULFILL ITS 5]GY NE$S WILL BE IRRATIONAL :5 LOOK$ AT FROM ! VIEWPO9T ( ! FUTURE NE$S ( ! PEOPLE ( ! PLANET4 ,IT C\LD WELL BE ?AT ! ROOT TO SECUR+ GREATE/ PR(IT = CAPITAL IS ?AT ( EXPLOIT+ ! UNCONV5TIONAL OIL DEPOSITS4 ,9 ?AT CONTEXT FE$+ ! PANIC AB\T 5]GY SUPPLY1 & 9 P>TICUL> ! IDEA ?AT R5EWABLE 5]GY CANNOT BE AN ALT]NATIVE1 IS A V]Y S]I\S MI/AKE AS IT W\LD 5C\RAGE MANY PEOPLE TO ACCEPT :AT W\LD BE A V]Y POLLUT+ S\RCE ( 5]GY OV] EFFICI5CIES & R5EWABLE 5]GIES4 

,! GREATE/ ?REAT TO MO/ HUMANS IS NOT PEAK OIL BUT RA!R GLOBAL W>M+4 ,*ANG+ WEA!R PATT]NS & RIS+ SEA LEVELS ALREADY ?REAT5 HUNDR$S ( MILLIONS ( ! POORE/ PEOPLE ON ! PLANET4 ,9 ?AT CONTEXT1 !RE IS A REAL DANG] ( PEAK OIL HY/]IA SIMPLY PLAY+ ! ROLE ( A DI/RACTION FROM ! NE$ TO MAKE REAL RATIONAL DECISIONS AB\T 5]GY PRODUCTION4 

,! SORT ( 5]GY DEBATE AN>*I/S NE$ TO BE PROMOT+ IS NOT ?AT ( CONSPIRACY !ORIES & COLLAPSEISM4 ,9 ! ANTI-W> MOVEM5T1 CONSPIRACY !ORIES >\ND ! #i_/#a#a ATTACKS MAY GRAB ! POPUL> IMAG9ATION1 BUT !Y >E A S]I\S B>RI] TO ANY REAL DISCUSSION ( IMP]IALISM1 ! CAUSES ( ! W> & H[ IT CAN BE OPPOS$4 ,SO IT IS ) ,PEAK ,OIL & ! /RUGGLE ?AT NE$S TO BE WAG$ AGA9/ CLIMATE *ANGE4 

,WE NE$ TO HELP 9ITIATE A DEBATE AB\T A REAL PROGRAM ?AT PEOPLE CAN FI<T = 9 RELATION TO CLIMATE *ANGE4 ,A PROGRAM ?AT CAN (F] REAL SOLUTIONS TO FILL+ \R NE$ = 5]GY1 BUT ONES ?AT DO NOT LEAD TO SEV]E DAMAGE TO ! BIOSPH]E :I* WE %>E4 

,9 ! M$IUM T]M CAPITALISM'S CONT9U\S NE$ TO GR[ ALSO MEANS ?AT ! DANG] ( SOME KEY RES\RCE RUNN+ \T BE=E AN ALT]NATIVE C\LD BE DEVELOP$ WILL ALWAYS BE ) US4 ,AS WILL ! DANG] ( SOME BYPRODUCT ( PRODUCTION RESULT+ 9 A DRA/IC *ANGE 9 ! SUITABILITY ( ! PLANET = HUMAN LIFE4 ,AS ! WORLD8S POPULATION 9CREASES1 ANY MAJOR SUDD5 *ANGE C\LD RESULT 9 ! DEA?S ( BILLIONS ( PEOPLE4 ,! NE$ = A RATIONAL SY/EM ( ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION BAS$ ON HUMAN NE$S1 9CLUD+ ! NE$ = AN 5VIRONM5T1 :I* CAN SUPPORT ALL ( US1 BECOMES MORE URG5T ) EV]Y DAY4  
  

,&REW ,FLOOD @& ,*EKOV ,FE5EY  
  

.<#a.> ,! HIDD5 AG5DA2 FRAMEWORK = AN ALT]NATIVE OIL POLICY1 ,A ,NORWEGIAN TRADE UNION P]SPECTIVE ON ! 9T]NATIONALIZATION ( ,/ATOIL1 TRANSLAT$ BY ,LAUR5CE ,COX 

.<#b.> ,DECEMB] #bf 

.<#c.> ,Y\ CAN SEE CURR5T PRICES ON ! ,N,Y,M,E,X FUTURES M>KET AT FUTURES4TRAD+*>TS4COM 

.<#d.> 0,:Y ! ,WORLD IS NOT AB\T TO RUN \T ( OIL10 ,! ,ECONOMI/1 ,APRIL #b?1 #bf 

.<#e.> ,!RE IS A USEFUL EXPLANATION ( ,],O,E,I ON ,WIKIP$IA AT 54WIKIP$IA4ORG 

.<#f.> ,AL?\< AN ,],O,E,I = OIL ( #b IS COMMONLY GIV5 IT MAY NOT BE ACCURATE4 ,MIDDLE ,EA/]N OIL HAS ! HI<E/ ,],O,E,I & ,I'VE SE5 E/IMATES 9 ! RANGE ( #a-#b4 ,I'VE SE5 FIGURES = ,OIL PRODUC$ 9 ! ,U,S,A ON ! O!R H& AS L[ AS #b6 

.<#g.> ,= EXAMPLES ( MICRO HYDRO P[] SEE WWW4MICROHYDROP[]4NET 

.<#h.> ,:Y ,W9D 5]GY1 ,5]GY ,RESE>* ,C5T] ( ! ,NE!RL&S1 WWW4ECN4NL 

.<#i.> WWW4BNP4ORG4UK 

.<#a.> ,5]GY RETURN ON 9VE/M5T 7,],O,I7 = W9D 5]GY AT WWW4EOE>?4ORG 

.<#a#a.> ,5]GY ,RESE>* ,C5T] ( ! ,NE!RL&S T9YURL4COM 

.<#a#b.> ,ACTUAL FIGURES ,I'VE SE5 CLAIM$ RANGE FROM 4#g TO #a#g4 ,%ELL REPORT$ AN ,],O,E,I = ONE OIL %ALE EXTRACTION ( #c4#e1 SEE WWW4CSBJ4COM 

7,S\RCE3 ,RETRIEV$ ON #ba ,SEPTEMB] #ba FROM AN>*ISM4PAGEABODE4COM47 

,FROM 3 ,!,AN>*I/,LIBR>Y4ORG4 

,*RONOLOGY 3 
,JANU>Y #a#g1 #bbb 3 ,! ,POLITICS & ,REALITY ( ! ,PEAK ,OIL ,SC>E -- ,ADD$4 

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