,*APT] #f 
,:Y ,*ESS ,IS AN ,9APPROPRIATE ,METAPHOR = ,9T]NATIONAL ,RELATIONS1 ,:Y ,JACKSON ,POLLOCK ,PA9T+S ,>E A ,BETT] BUT ,/ILL ,9ADEQUATE ,METAPHOR1 & ,:Y ,?IS ,HAS ,PR(\ND ,POLITICAL ,CONSEQU5CES 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,C>NE ,ROSS 

,TEXT 3 

#f4 ,:Y ,*ESS ,IS AN ,9APPROPRIATE ,METAPHOR = ,9T]NATIONAL ,RELATIONS1 ,:Y ,JACKSON ,POLLACK ,PA9T+S ,>E A ,BETT] BUT ,/ILL ,9ADEQUATE ,METAPHOR1 & ,:Y ,?IS ,HAS ,PR(\ND ,POLITICAL ,CONSEQU5CES 

,! *ESS GAME IS A FREQU5T METAPHOR = ! BUS9ESS ( 9T]NATIONAL RELATIONS4 ,>TFULLY %OT PHOTOGRAPHS ( K+S & KNI<TS ADORN MANY A BOOK OR S*OL>LY >TICLE 7P>TICUL>LY ?OSE AB\T ! !ORY ( 0,I,R074 ,! *ESS GAME APPEALS AS ANALOGY BECAUSE IT IS COMPLICAT$1 IT 9VOLVES TWO CLE>LY DEF9$ OPPON5TS &1 ABOVE ALL1 BECAUSE AL?\< A V]Y DIFFICULT GAME1 IT IS ULTIMATELY COMPREH5SIBLE3 ,!RE MAY BE A V]Y L>GE NUMB] ( P]MUTATIONS 7ACCORD+ TO ,G>RY ,KASP>OV1 !RE >E #aab POSSIBLE GAMES71 BUT !RE >E A LIMIT$ NUMB] ( \TCOMES4 ,COMPUT]S CAN BE PROGRAMM$ TO PLAY *ESS1 AS WELL AS IF NOT BETT] ?AN ! BE/ HUMAN PLAY]S4 

,SU* METAPHORS1 !RE=E1 HAVE A REASSUR+ QUALITY3 ,IF ! GAME IS PLAY$ WELL BY A /ATE1 A GOV]NM5T1 !Y WILL W91 OR AT LEA/ PREV5T A LOSS--AS LONG AS \R PLAY]S1 OR COMPUT]S & S(TW>E1 >E GOOD 5\<4 ,! %APE & POSSIBILITIES ( ! PIECES & BO>D >E KN[N & F9ITE4 ,IT'S COM=T+ TO ?9K ?AT =EIGN POLICY IS A BIT LIKE PULL+ A LEV]1 & AFT] SOME :IRR+ & CLICK+1 A RESULT POPS \T AT ! O!R 5D4 ,HI/ORIANS & COMM5TATORS RE9=CE ?IS SUGGE/ION4 ,!IR >TICLES & BOOKS AB\ND ) ! L9E> N>RATIVE3 ,DECISION ,A LEADS TO POLICY ,B LEADS TO \TCOME ,C2 IF ONLY ,WA%+TON ADOPTS POLICY X1 RESULT Y WILL SURELY FOLL[4 

,MAPS & ATLASES EVOKE A SIMIL> EFFECT4 ,NONE ( !M PORTRAYS A WORLD AS IT IS3 ,NO GLOBE IS BIG 5\<4 ,JORGE ,LUIS ,BORGES SUGGE/$ SU* A MAP 9 HIS WOND]FUL /ORY ,( ,EXACTITUDE 9 ,SCI5CE3 A MAP TO ! SCALE ( ! ,E>?1 ) EV]Y MANHOLE COV]1 EV]Y GOAT PA? DEPICT$ AS IT ACTUALLY IS4 ,SU* A MAP W\LD BE P]FECTLY ACCURATE BUT ( C\RSE :OLLY USELESS4 ,ALL DEPICTIONS MU/ !RE=E R$UCE & !REBY DI/ORT4 ,ALL MAPS >E NONE!LESS IMBU$ ) A C]TA9 IMPLI$ CONFID5CE ?AT !IR DEL9EATIONS >E MEAN+FUL & SIGNIFICANT4 ,! NEATLY DRAWN L9ES1 DOTS & %AD+S CONVEY A MESSAGE ?AT ! WORLD IS ULTIMATELY KN[N & DEM>CAT$1 COMPLICAT$ BUT CLE>LY DEF9$4 

,!RE >E SEV]AL PROBLEMS ) ! *ESS METAPHOR1 & 9DE$ ) ! CONV5TIONAL WAY ( ?9K+ AB\T 9T]NATIONAL RELATIONS4 ,9 ! DISCOM=T+ REALITY ( ! WORLD TODAY1 ! NUMB] ( RELEVANT ACTORS :O MAY AFFECT ! \TCOME IS 9V>IABLY F> GREAT] ?AN TWO1 ! POT5TIAL MOVES ( !SE MULTIPLE PLAY]S IS UNLIMIT$1 & !RE=E ! NUMB] ( POSSIBLE 9T]ACTIONS 9 A GLOBALIZ$ WORLD IS C]TA9LY GREAT] ?AN #a#a#b1 EV5 ?\< ?IS IS ALREADY AN UNIMAG9ABLY BIG NUMB]4 

,MULTIPLY ! BILLIONS ( CONNECT$ HUMANS 9 TODAY'S WORLD BY ! ACTIONS AVAILABLE TO !M1 !N ?R[ 9 ! REACTIONS & C\NT]REACTIONS TO !SE 9ITIAL ACTIONS1 RUN ! CALCULATION = EV5 A %ORT :ILE1 & Y\ WILL 5D UP ) AN IMPOSSIBLY L>GE NUMB] ( POSSIBLE \TCOMES4 ,?AT NUMB] IS MASSIVE & POSSIBLY 9F9ITE2 !RE >E PROBABLY 9SUFFICI5T ATOMS 9 ! UNIV]SE TO EQUAL IT4 ,GIV5 ?IS REALITY1 ! HOPE ( A =EIGN POLICY ( DELIB]ATE ACTION TO PRODUCE PR$ICTABLE RESULTS LOOKS 9CREAS+LY VA94 ,9/EAD ( PULL+ A LEV] ON A MA*9E TO PRODUCE A PR$ICTABLE RESULT1 MAK+ =EIGN POLICY />TS TO LOOK MORE LIKE A ROLL ( ! DICE--OR MORE ACCURATELY1 SELECT+ A NUMB] BETWE5 ONE & 9F9ITY4 

,FEW D>E ACKN[L$GE :AT 9CREAS+LY APPE>S TO BE ! TRU?--?AT ! WORLD HAS NO DEF9$ %APE1 ASIDE FROM ITS CONT95TS1 RIV]S & OCEANS1 & EV5 !SE %IFT =M & LOCATION1 N[ AT AN AL>M+ SPE$4 ,?AT 9/EAD ( A *ESSBO>D OR A WEB1 IT IS 9 FACT A SWIRL+ MIASMA ( BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS ( 9T]ACTIONS1 NOT ON A FIX$ PATT]N1 OR A NET1 BUT AN EV]-*ANG+ ME% ( CONNECTIONS1 SOME SIGNIFICANT BUT TEMPOR>Y1 SOME LONG-LA/+ BUT 9CONSEQU5TIAL1 A REALITY MORE EVOCATIVE ( ! SWIRLS & SPATT]S ( A ,JACKSON ,POLLACK PA9T+ ?AN A *ESSBO>D4 

,:5 WE LOOK AT SOME ILLU/RATIONS DRAWN FROM ?IS MAEL/ROM1 Y\'LL SEE ! DILEMMA4444 

,9 #b#i1 A SPATE ( HI<-PR(ILE KIDNAP+S 9 ,PH5IX LEFT ,>IZONA ! KIDNAPP+ CAPITAL ( ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES4 ,?AT SAME YE>1 EI<TE5 PEOPLE W]E KILL$ 9 ,MEXICO ,CITY AFT] A GANG ( HOOD$ GUNM5 ATTACK$ A LOCAL DRUG TREATM5T FACILITY1 APP>5TLY A REFUGE = RIVAL GANG MEMB]S4 ,! CONNECTION BETWE5 !SE TWO PH5OM5A WAS A SEEM+LY H>MLESS ,U4,S4 POLICY AIM$ AT IMPROV+ BORD] 5=CEM5T ) ,MEXICO4 ,! POLICY WAS DESIGN$ 9 P>T TO PLACATE A DOME/IC CON/ITU5CY AL>M$ AT HI< RATES ( ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION4 ,BUT IT HAD ! ADV]SE & UNEXPECT$ CONSEQU5CE ( AGGRAVAT+ A S]IES ( DRUG W>S 9 ,MEXICO4 ,BY SL[+ MIGRATION FROM ,MEXICO1 SO TOO IT SL[$ ! TRANSF] ( DRUGS TO ! NOR?4 ,BUT AS DRUG SUPPLY 9 ! ,U4,S4 FELL1 SUPPLIES 9CREAS$ DRAMATICALLY 9 ,MEXICO1 L[]+ DOME/IC PRICES & FUEL+ A SPIKE 9 LOCAL DRUG CONSUMPTION4 ,OV] ! NEXT MON?S1 GANG-RELAT$ VIOL5CE & KIDNAP+S SURG$ AS NEW & OLD GANGS ALIKE S\<T TO M>K \T !IR TURF 9 ! NEWLY DEVELOP+ M>KETPLACE4 ,) ?\S&S DEAD & ! VIOL5CE SPREAD+ BACK TO ,AM]ICAN T]RITORY1 ,U4,S4 POLICY MAK]S >E N[ =C$ TO CONT5D ) ! UN9T5D$ CONSEQU5CES ( ACTIONS ONCE ?\<T TO BR+ GREAT] /ABILITY TO ,AM]ICA'S S\!RN BORD]4 

,IT IS N[ WELL KN[N ?AT ,OSAMA B9 ,LAD5'S 9VOLVEM5T 9 ! BATTLE ( ! ,AF<AN MUJAHIDE5 AGA9/ ! ,SOVIET >MY S]V$ AS ! SPR+BO>D = ,AL ,QA$A'S CAMPAIGN ( GLOBAL JIHAD4 ,! DEFEAT ( ?AT >MY'S OCCUPATION ( ,AF<ANI/AN1 AMONG O!R FACTORS1 HELP$ CONTRIBUTE TO ! FALL ( ! ,B]L9 ,WALL & ! COLLAPSE ( ! ,SOVIET EMPIRE4 ,?\< B9 ,LAD5 & ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 W]E :OLLY UNCONNECT$1 ! #i_/#a#a ATTACKS CREAT$ ! POLITICAL MOM5TUM = ! 9VASION ( ,IRAQ4.<#a#g#c.> ,?AT 9VASION 9DIRECTLY L$ TO ! DE FACTO SEP>ATION ( ,IRAQ'S ,KURDI% NOR?1 ! RISE ( ,IRAN AS ! DOM9ANT REGIONAL P[] &1 LIKELY & TRAGICALLY1 ! DEMISE ( ! ,*RI/IAN COMMUNITY 9 ,IRAQ1 DRIV5 \T BY SECT>IAN VIOL5CE4 ,NONE ( !SE \TCOMES WAS PR$ICT$1 EV5 BY ! 9VASION'S MO/ IMAG9ATIVE PLANN]S4 

,! WEAPONS & 9FLU5CE ( ,AL ,QA$A W]E A FUNCTION ( B9 ,LAD5'S P]SONAL WEAL?1 :I* WAS ITSELF A CONSEQU5CE ( HIS FA!R'S L>GE =TUNE1 MADE FROM BUILD+ = ! ROYAL FAMILY & O!RS WELL CONNECT$ 9 OIL-RI* ,SAUDI ,>ABIA1 HIS HOME C\NTRY1 A LONG-/&+ ,U4,S4 ALLY4 ,! 0ORIG9AL0 ,AL ,QA$A1 AS SOME ANALY/S N[ CALL IT1 HAS MEAN:ILE SPAWN$ SEV]AL DEADLY AFFILIATES OR 0FRAN*ISES10 A NAME REM9ISC5T ( ! SPREAD ( ,MC,DONALD'S BURG] RE/AURANTS--,AL ,QA$A 9 ! ,ISLAMIC ,MA<REB 7,A,Q,I,M71 ,AL ,QA$A 9 ! ,>ABIAN ,P59SULA 7,A,Q,A,P71 ,A,Q 9 ,SOMALIA1 ,A,Q 9 ,AF<ANI/AN1 ! 0,NIG]IAN ,TALIBAN0 ,BOKO ,H>AM1 & T]RORI/ GR\PS )\T NAMES 9 ,LONDON & ,MIAMI--& HAS HELP$ 9SPIRE MURD]\S ATTACKS FROM ,=T ,HOOD1 ,TEXAS1 TO ,BALI & ,MUMBAI4 ,ONE ( ! PLANN]S ( ! ,MUMBAI RAMPAGE1 :I* CO/ NE>LY TWO HUNDR$ LIVES1 WAS AN ,AM]ICAN :O ALSO1 IT TURNS \T1 WAS = A :ILE AN AG5T = ,AM]ICA'S ,DRUG ,5=CEM5T ,AG5CY1 :I* WANT$ HIS HELP 9 LOCAT+ H]O9 SUPPLI]S 9 ,PAKI/AN4 ,! ,D,E,A1 IT APPE>S1 FAIL$ TO 9=M O!R P>TS ( ! MASSIVE ,U4,S4 9TELLIG5CE MA*9]Y4 

,ELSE:]E1 ,AL ,QA$A IS ALSO LOOSELY ASSOCIAT$ )1 & S]VES AS 9SPIRATION =1 ! ,AL ,%ABAAB ,ISLAMI/ MILITIA1 :I* CURR5TLY CONTROLS MU* ( S\!RN & C5TRAL ,SOMALIA4 

,H]E1 ! 9SATIABLE GLOBAL APPETITE = FI% HAS DRIV5 9T]NATIONAL FI%+ FLEETS--FROM ,JAPAN1 ,RUSSIA & ,EUROPE--TO PLUND] ,SOMALIA'S UNPROTECT$ WAT]S1 D5Y+ A LIVELIHOOD TO ,SOMALIA'S MANY COA/AL FI%]M54 ,P>TLY AS A RESULT 7!RE >E O!R REASONS TOO71 SOME HAVE TURN$ TO PIRACY1 HIJACK+ VESSELS 9 A LUCRATIVE TRADE1 :I* A SUB/ANTIAL FLOTILLA ( HEAVILY >M$ ULTRAMOD]N W>%IPS DEPLOY$ 9 ! >EA HAS FAIL$ SO F> TO PREV5T4 ,?IS NAVAL FLEET1 SOMETIMES NUMB]+ AS MANY AS TW5TY OR MORE VESSELS1 EMBODIES UNPREC$5T$ 9T]NATIONAL COOP]ATION1 9CLUD+ W>%IPS FROM =M] ANTAGONI/S LIKE ,RUSSIA1 ,N,A,T,O1 ,9DIA & ,*9A4 0,COMB9$ ,TASK ,=CE #a#e0 ALSO 9CLUDES ! ,EUROPEAN ,UNION'S FIR/ EV] JO9T NAVAL DEPLOYM5T4 ,BUT SO F>1 ?IS UNIQUE & EXP5SIVE MILIT>Y COLLABORATION HAS FAIL$ TO /OP OR DET] ! PIRATES4 ,MORE PEOPLE W]E TAK5 HO/AGE AT SEA 9 #ba ?AN 9 ANY PREVI\S YE> ON RECORD4.<#a#a#c.> 

,SOME ( ! PROCE$S ( ?AT PIRACY1 :]E %IP [N]S (T5 PAY SEV]AL MILLION DOLL>S TO LIB]ATE !IR CAPTUR$ VESSELS & CREWS1 HAVE F\ND !IR WAY TO ,AL ,%ABAAB1 :I* HAS US$ ! MONEY TO PUR*ASE WEAPONS ) :I* TO FI<T ITS 9SURG5CY AGA9/ ! 9T]NATIONALLY BACK$ ,SOMALI ,TRANSITIONAL ,F$]AL ,GOV]NM5T 9 ,MOGADI%U4 ,Y\NG M5 >E N[ TRAVEL+ FROM ! ,U4,S41 ,BRITA9 & ELSE:]E TO TRA9 ) ,AL ,%ABAAB & !IR PIRACY-FUND$ WEAPONS4 ,NATIONAL SECURITY AG5CIES--,M,I#e1 ! ,F,B,I--HAVE W>N$ ( ! DANG] ?AT !SE RADICALIZ$ Y\NG M5 POSE ON !IR RETURN TO !IR 0HOME0 C\NTRIES1 TRA9$ & READY TO COMMIT FUR!R ACTS ( VIOL5CE4 ,9 LATE #b#a1 A Y\NG ,SOMALI-,AM]ICAN S\<T TO DETONATE A BOMB AT A ,*RI/MAS TREE LI<T+ C]EMONY 9 ,PORTL&1 ,OREGON4 

,SU* EFFECTS >E 9H]5TLY UNPR$ICTABLE & CAN APPE> R&OM1 EV5 ?\< SOME CAUSES & SOME EFFECTS >E1 AT LEA/ 9 RETROSPECT1 DISC]NIBLE4 ,!Y DO NOT FOLL[ ! NEAT PATT]NS ( A FL[ *>T OR A MA!MATICAL EQUATION4 ,?\< MULTIPLE & COMPLEX1 ! MODEL ( A *ESS GAME IS NO MORE APPROPRIATE1 EI!R4 ,:AT WE WITNESS 9 ! WORLD IS NOT ORD]$1 AT LEA/ 9 A SEQU5TIAL1 LOGICAL FA%ION1 BUT NEI!R IS IT *AOS4 ,IT IS 5TIRELY WRONG TO SAY ?AT ! PATT]N ( CAUSE & EFFECT 9 ! WORLD TODAY IS *AOTIC OR AN>*IC1 EV5 IF SOMETIMES IT SEEMS ?AT WAY4 ,IT MAY RESEMBLE *AOS1 BUT 9 FACT IT IS A HUGELY COMPLEX & DYNAMIC ME% ( MULTIPLE CAUSE & EFFECT & BACK AGA9 7EV5 ,JACKSON ,POLLACK PA9T+S COMPRISE AN UND]LY+ ORD]74 ,GIV5 ?IS REALITY1 ANY MODEL OR ANY METAPHOR MAY OV]SIMPLIFY & ?US DI/ORT ?IS NATURE--AN >TIFICIAL SIMPLICITY IMPOS$ UPON COMPLEXITY4 

,ONLY LAT] WILL HI/ORIANS1 MA/]S ( ! R$UCTIVE >T ( ! N>RATIVE1 BE ABLE TO PUT %APE TO :AT SEEMS TODAY =MLESS1 & EV5 !N !Y WILL BE CAPTUR+ BUT A T9Y P>T ( :AT COMPRISES EXI/5CE N[4 ,= N[1 A BETT] DEPICTION SUGGE/S ITSELF1 A FANTA/IC MELANGE ) 5DS & CONNECTIONS ?AT %IFT1 M]GE & DISAPPE>4 ,TO %APE ?IS ME%1 TO PUT =M TO IT1 TO GIVE IT NAMES1 IS TO *ANGE IT1 TO R$UCE IT & ULTIMATELY TO FAIL TO UND]/& IT COMPLETELY4 ,UN=TUNATELY1 ?IS IS PRECISELY :AT GOV]NM5TS >E REQUIR$ TO DO4 

,IT IS CONV5TIONAL WISDOM ?AT ) MYRIAD 9T]NATIONAL PROBLEMS ?AT CROSS FRONTI]S1 ! WORLD NE$S EV] MORE 9T]NATIONAL DIPLOMACY & 5GAGEM5T4 ,BUT IT MAY BE1 9 FACT1 ?AT WE NE$ LESS1 AT LEA/ ( ! K9D ?AT CURR5TLY PR$OM9ATES--! LATTICE ( /ATE-TO-/ATE RELATIONS & MULTILAT]AL 9/ITUTIONS4 

,!RE >E N[ A GREAT MANY 9T]NATIONAL NEGOTIATION PROCESSES ADDRESS+ A BEWILD]+ >RAY ( PROBLEMS1 FROM ! FAMILI>--CLIMATE *ANGE1 NUCLE> PROLIF]ATION--TO ! OBSCURE--PO/AL /&>DS & ! /&>DIZATION ( MEASUREM5TS4 ,BUT ON ! MO/ ACUTE & URG5T PROBLEMS1 ! EVID5CE IS M\NT+ ?AT !SE PROCESSES >E NOT DELIV]+ ! NECESS>Y RESULTS--EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS TO ! WORLD'S 9T]NATIONAL PROBLEMS4 ,! MEASURE ( ! EFFECTIV5ESS ( ?IS =M ( POLITICS MU/ BE AS = ANY =M ( POLITICS3 ,:AT >E ! \TPUTS8 ,:AT >E ! REAL EFFECTS ON REAL PROBLEMS & PEOPLE8 

,! CLIMATE *ANGE 0PROCESS10 ) ITS SUMMITS AT ,COP5HAG5 7#b#i7 & ,CANCUN 7#b#a71 HAS COMPRIS$ HUNDR$S ( MEET+S 9VOLV+ ?\S&S ( DELEGATES &1 ON MORE ?AN ONE OCCASION1 0WORLD LEAD]S40 ,BUT ! PROCESS HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SUB/ANTIVE AGREEM5T1 LET ALONE CONCRETE & PLAUSIBLY EFFECTIVE MEASURES1 TO R$UCE ATMOSPH]IC C>BON1 DESPITE ! VA/ EXP5DITURE ( NEGOTIAT+ 5]GY & VOLUM9\S REAMS ( TREATY TEXT & M$IA COMM5T>Y4 ,MEAN:ILE1 ! CONC5TRATION ( C>BON 9 ! ATMOSPH]E CONT9UES TO RISE4 

,! ,G#h ,GL5EAGLES SUMMIT 9 #be WAS NOTABLE = ! EXTRAORD9>Y L5G? & HEI<T ( ! F5CES ]ECT$1 & ! T5 ?\S& POLICE REQUIR$1 TO KEEP PROTE/]S AWAY FROM ! T9Y GR\P ( DECISION MAK]S MEET+ 9 ! REMOTE ,SCOTTI% LOCATION4 ,! SUMMITE]S !MSELVES S\<T TO MAKE HI/ORY BY !IR COMMITM5T TO @s#e BILLION 9 NEW AID MONEY4 ,?IS ANN\NCEM5T WAS CLAIM$ TO 0MAKE POV]TY HI/ORY10 E*O+ ! RHETORIC ( ! HUGE 0,MAKE ,POV]TY ,HI/ORY0 CAMPAIGN1 :I* CULM9AT$ 9 SEV]AL MASSIVE 0,LIVE#h0 CONC]TS ?AT SUMM]1 :]E ?OSE 5JOY+ ! MUSIC 9 P]SON OR ON TELEVISION W]E 5C\RAG$ TO LOBBY !IR LEAD]S BY S5D+ !M TEXT MESSAGES ASK+ !M TO RELIEVE ,?IRD ,WORLD DEBT4 ,AT ! ,U,N ,WORLD ,SUMMIT LAT] ?AT YE>1 ALL MEMB] /ATES ( ! ,U,N RECOMMITT$ !MSELVES TO ! GOAL ( R$UC+ ABSOLUTE POV]TY BY HALF BY #b#a#e--! HEADL9E T>GET ( ! SO-CALL$ ,MILL5NIUM ,DEVELOPM5T ,GOALS4 7,M,D,G74 

,IT IS DEPRESS+ TO RELATE ! UTT] FAILURE ( ?OSE MAK+ !SE COMMITM5TS TO KEEP TO !M4.<#a#a#d.>  ,( ?OSE MAK+ ! ,GL5EAGLES DECL>ATION1 ALL S]I\S C\NTRIES & SEV5 ( !M MORE OR LESS DEMOCRACIES1 NOT ONE FULFILL$ ! PROMISE !Y HAD MADE4 ,FIVE YE>S AFT] ,GL5EAGLES1 IT WAS E/IMAT$ ?AT ,G#h PL$GES W\LD FALL %ORT BY @s#b BILLION4.<#a#a#e.>  ,! ,U4,S4 & ,EUROPEAN ,UNION HAD DONE VIRTUALLY NO?+ TO REMOVE ! IMPORT B>RI]S & AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES ?AT DO MU* TO /YMIE ECONOMIC GR[? 9 DEVELOP+ C\NTRIES4 ,BY #b#a1 ! ,G#h ITSELF1 P]HAPS \T ( EMB>RASSM5T1 HAD CEAS$ M5TION+ ITS AID GOALS 9 ITS COMMUNIQUES4 ,IT DID1 H[EV]1 MAKE PLAY ( YET ANO!R NEW 09ITIATIVE10 ?IS TIME TO T>GET MAT]NAL HEAL?4 ,! MO/ REC5T ASSESSM5T ( ! ,M,D,G IS ?AT !Y WILL C]TA9LY NOT BE ATTA9$1 AN UNSURPRIS+ ASSESSM5T GIV5 ! PALTRY EF=TS MADE BY ! SIGNATORIES ( ! ,U,N DECL>ATION TO SUB/ANTIATE !IR RHETORIC4 ,( ONE ?+1 H[EV]1 WE CAN BE SURE3 ,!RE WILL BE MORE SU* DECL>ATIONS1 FRE%5$ UP ) NEW SLOGANS & IMPASSION$ SPEE*ES OR TWEETS1 OR ,FACEBOOK PAGES1 OR :ATEV]1 9 FUTURE4 

,! REC5T F9ANCIAL CRISIS HAS OCCASION$ MASS$ B\TS ( 9T]NATIONAL H&-WR++ OV] GLOBAL REGULATION ( BANK+ & 9VE/M5T4 ,! ,G#b C\NTRIES HAS EM]G$ AS ! LEAD+ =UM TO DISCUSS SU* MEASURES1 CLE>LY NECESS>Y TO MANAGE ! \T-(-CONTROL FL[S ( UN9TELLIGIBLE F9ANCIAL 9/RUM5TS1 LIKE ! 9FAM\S 0COLLAT]ALIZ$ DEBT OBLIGATIONS0 7,C,D,OS7 ?AT SPREAD RISK ) NO OV]SI<T4 ,BUT DESPITE REPEAT$ MEET+S1 COMMUNIQUES & SPEE*ES1 H]E TOO NO EFFECTIVE POLICY RESPONSE HAS EM]G$4 ,IT HAS 9/EAD BECOME CLE> ?AT ! F9ANCIAL 9DU/RY'S LOBBYI/S 9 EA* C\NTRY HAVE CONSPIR$ TO 5SURE ?AT EV]Y GOV]NM5T IS UNWILL+ TO TRADE !IR SUPPOS$ COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE = COLLECTIVE MEASURES1 LIKE GLOBALLY AGRE$ & SUFFICI5T CAPITAL REQUIREM5TS = L5D]S4 ,TO SATIATE PUBLIC CONC]N1 9/EAD !SE MEET+S (F] 0COMMITM5TS0 TO EFFECTIVE CONTROLS1 & 0PROCESSES0 TO DISCUSS !M--NO D\BT )\T CEASE UNTIL ! NEXT CRISIS ]UPTS4 ,?US1 ! IMPRESSION ( ACTIVITY IS CREAT$1 ! ABS5CE ( CONCRETE ACTION OBSCUR$4 

,GIV5 ! GRAVITY ( ! PROBLEMS ?AT !SE 9T]NATIONAL PROCESSES >E SUPPOS$ TO ADDRESS1 & YET !IR FEEBLE \TPUTS1 IT'S URG5T TO CONSID] :AT'S GO+ ON4 ,! CYNICAL MI<T >GUE ?AT !SE PROCESSES >E SIMPLY RACKETS RUN BY ! P[]FUL1 :O HAVE NO 9TR9SIC 9T]E/ 9 SUCCESS4 ,9 ITS [N WAY1 ?IS IS A COM=T+ & SELF-S]V+ EXCUSE ?AT REQUIRES LITTLE RESPONSE SAVE CYNICISM ON \R P>T4 ,BUT MY [N EXP]I5CE ( DIPLOMACY & 9T]NATIONAL NEGOTIATION SUGGE/S SOME?+ MORE SUBTLE IS ! PROBLEM4 

,9V>IABLY1 :5 !SE NEGOTIATIONS & CONF]5CES FAIL1 COMM5TATORS >E QUICK TO PO9T F+]S AT ONE P>TICIPANT OR O!R = D]AIL+ ! PROCESS3 ! ,*9ESE = EVISC]AT+ ! ,COP5HAG5 CLIMATE *ANGE TALKS1 ,FRANCE = BLOCK+ ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL AU?ORITY = ! 9VASION ( ,IRAQ 9 #b#c4 ,BUT !SE ACCUSATIONS MAY BE MISS+ ! PO9T3 ,! PROBLEM ( 9T]NATIONAL DIPLOMACY IS NOT ! ACTORS )9 IT1 ?\< !IR ACTIONS MAY H9T AT ! MORE SUBM]G$ PROBLEM4 ,! REAL PROBLEM MAY BE CONCEAL$ )9 ! V]Y SY/EM ITSELF4 ,9DE$1 ! PROBLEM MAY BE ! SY/EM4 

,DIPLOMACY IS A SY/EM4 ,ANY SY/EM--LIKE A CLUB--REQUIRES C]TA9 *>ACT]I/ICS 9 ORD] TO P>TICIPATE4 ,& IT RE9=CES !SE *>ACT]I/ICS M]ELY BY EXI/+ & BY REQUIR+ ITS MEMB]S TO EXHIBIT !SE *>ACT]I/ICS4 ,! CURR5T 9T]NATIONAL SY/EM COMPRISES ! CONV5TIONAL 9/ITUTIONS ( DIPLOMACY4 ,FROM !SE 9/ITUTIONS1 WE CAN SEE CLE>LY :AT *>ACT]I/ICS >E REQUIR$ TO P>TICIPATE4 

,DIPLOMACY & 9T]NATIONAL RELATIONS >E1 BY !IR NATURE1 AB\T NATION /ATES4 ,! ,UNIT$ ,NATIONS1 ! ,EUROPEAN ,UNION1 ,A,S,E,A,N1 ! ,WORLD ,TRADE ,ORGANIZATION1 ! ,G#b >E ALL ASSOCIATIONS ( /ATES4 ,?IS MAY SEEM A V]Y OBVI\S & TRITE PO9T TO EMPHASIZE1 BUT IT IS ESS5TIAL4 ,= MY EXP]I5CE SUGGE/S ?AT /ATES1 & !IR EXPON5TS1 DO NOT ACCURATELY REFLECT :AT HUMANS >E AB\T1 NOR :AT !Y WANT4 ,?US1 IT IS NAIVE TO EXPECT ?AT !IR MA*9ATIONS1 9 ! =M ( 9T]/ATE DIPLOMACY1 WILL PRODUCE RESULTS CONSI/5T ) HUMANITY'S NE$S 9 G5]AL4 

,?IS PROBLEM TAKES SEV]AL DIFF]5T =MS1 & ! EVID5CE = IT1 IF Y\ *OOSE TO LOOK1 IS MANIFOLD4 ,! FIR/ IS ?AT ! CONNECTION BETWE5 :AT /ATES DO & SAY 9 9T]NATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS & :AT !IR POPULATIONS ?9K IS N[ EXTREMELY T5U\S1 TO SAY ! LEA/4 ,9 DEMOCRACIES1 ! 9T]NATIONAL REPRES5TATIVE ( ! /ATE IS ACC\NTABLE TO !IR HOME M9I/RY1 :I* IS L$ BY A POLITICIAN :O IS ACC\NTABLE TO ! LEGISLATURE1 :I* IS ULTIMATELY ACC\NTABLE TO ! POPULATION :I* ELECTS ITS MEMB]S4 ,?IS IS ALREADY A V]Y LONG *A9 ( EXPLANATION & ACC\NTABILITY4 

,A GOOD EXAMPLE ( AN ACUTELY IMPORTANT BUT COMPLICAT$ ISSUE IS ,IRAQ POLICY4 ,MY EXP]I5CE DEAL+ ) ,IRAQ POLICY WAS ?AT ONLY ! V]Y SMALL GR\P AT ! COALFACE ( ! POLICY HAD ANY HOPE ( A COMPREH5SIVE GRASP ( ! MANY & DIV]SE ISSUES AT /AKE3 ,W,M,D1 SANCTIONS1 9T]NATIONAL LAW1 ! DYNAMICS ( ! ,U,N ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL1 TO M5TION JU/ A FEW1 ALL ( :I* !MSELVES W]E EXTRAORD9>ILY COMPLICAT$4 ,MY M9I/]S1 :OSE JOB IT WAS TO EXPLA9 & 0SELL0 ! POLICY 9 PUBLIC & TO ,P>LIAM5T1 USUALLY HAD ONLY A V]Y G5]AL & HAZY GRASP ( ! SUBJECT4 ,9 ,P>LIAM5T1 !RE W]E NO ,M,PS :O C\LD EQUAL ! (FICIALS' KN[L$GE & EXP]TIZE1 & ?US PROP]LY HOLD !M TO ACC\NT4 ,9 ANY CASE1 DUR+ ! F\R & A HALF YE>S ?AT ,I WORK$ ON ,IRAQ POLICY 9SIDE ! ,BRITI% GOV]NM5T1 ,I WAS NEV] QUE/ION$ BY ANY ,M,P DIRECTLY AB\T MY WORK1 NOR DID ANY J\RNALI/ EV] CLOSELY QUE/ION ME ) ANY S]I\S EXP]TIZE4 ,! PICTURE 9 ! ,U4,S4 IS SIMIL>4 

,ONE CONSEQU5CE ( ?IS EXTRAORD9>ILY DISSOCIAT$ *A9 BETWE5 DIPLOMAT & CITIZ5 IS ?AT ! DIPLOMAT CAN HAVE NO ACCURATE IDEA ( :AT ! CITIZ5 WANTS4 ,H5CE1 ?IS REQUIRES DIPLOMATS TO ASSUME1 OR RA!R 9V5T :AT !Y ?9K ! CITIZ5--HIS NATION--WANTS4 ,I KN[ ?IS BECAUSE ,I DID ?IS MYSELF MANY TIMES4 ,IT IS A FUNCTION ( ! 9CULCATION PROCESS DIPLOMATS MU/ GO ?R\< TO JO9 & !N EMBODY !IR PR(ESSION--! ASSUMPTION ?AT 0WE0 KN[ BE/4 ,DIPLOMATS1 BY ! NATURE ( !IR JOB1 >E 5C\RAG$ TO BELIEVE ?AT !Y CAN DET]M9E :AT IS 9 !IR NATION'S 9T]E/S1 )\T CONSULT+ ?OSE 9 :OSE NAME !Y CLAIM TO BE OP]AT+4 

,?IS PROCESS ( ASSUM+ OR 9V5T+ ! DESIRES & REQUIREM5TS ( A /ATE1 (T5 CALL$ 09T]E/S10 IS USUALLY CONDUCT$ 9 SECRET BY EX*ANGE ( TELEGRAMS OR CLASSIFI$ E-MAILS1 OR 9 POLICY SUBMISSIONS TO S5IOR (FICIALS & POLITICAL MA/]S4 ,I HAVE P>TICIPAT$ MANY TIMES 9 SU* EX]CISES4 ,) EXQUISITE CONCISION1 ! (FICIAL WILL DESCRIBE ! ISSUE AT H&1 !N HE OR %E WILL >TICULATE :AT IS AT /AKE = 0US0--\R 09T]E/S10 9 %ORT4 ,9 REC5T YE>S1 IT HAS BECOME FA%IONABLE = ! EXPON5TS ( =EIGN POLICY TO TALK AB\T 0VALUES0 AS IMPORTANT 9 DIPLOMACY--?+S LIKE DEMOCRACY & HUMAN RI<TS4 ,BUT 9 TRU?1 ! UND]LY+ CALCULUS REMA9S LITTLE *ANG$1 AS DOES ! DIPLOMATIC M9DSET1 & ?IS IS NO SURPRISE1 = IT IS ONLY NATURAL = ! EXPON5T ( ! /ATE TO ?9K 9 T]MS ( :AT HIS /ATE NE$S & WANTS2 IT IS TO ! DIPLOMAT AS TO A C[ EAT+ GRASS OR MOO+2 IT IS :AT !Y DO4 

,IT W\LD BE ABSURD = A DIPLOMAT TO ADOPT A DIFF]5T SET ( CRIT]IA TO GUIDE !IR WORK & POLICIES1 & W\LD C]TA9LY GU>ANTEE A %ORT C>E]4 ,SU* 9T]E/S TYPICALLY1 & BY 9H]IT$ TRADITION1 TAKE ! =M ( A HI]>*Y ( PRIORITIES :]E SECURITY--! REQUIREM5T TO SECURE ! /ATE & ITS POPULATION--RANKS AT ! TOP1 FOLL[$ BY ECONOMIC 9T]E/S4 ,!RE IS LITTLE RIGOR 9 !SE DEL9EATIONS & ORD]+S1 & 9DE$ ONLY R>ELY DO (FICIALS DI/+UI% BETWE5 TYPES ( 9T]E/1 9/EAD TALK+ 9 MORE G5]AL T]MS AB\T :AT 0WE0 MAY WANT 9 ANY GIV5 SITUATION4 ,! ID5TIFICATION BETWE5 DIPLOMAT & /ATE CANNOT BE OV]EMPHASIZ$4 ,:ILE BO? SECURITY & ECONOMIC 9T]E/S W\LD FIT ONTO MO/ PEOPLE'S LI/S ( :AT IS IMPORTANT1 ONLY A V]Y FEW PEOPLE W\LD1 ,I SUSPECT1 DECL>E !M AS P>AM\NT 9 ALL SITUATIONS OR AS !IR SOLE REQUIREM5TS 9 ANY SITUATION4 

,! PREMISE ( ! 9T]NATIONAL SY/EM1 & ! /ATE EXPON5TS :O POPULATE IT1 IS A FUNDAM5TALLY 9CR$IBLE ONE--?AT ! NE$S & WANTS ( ! ,E>?'S BILLIONS ( PEOPLE CAN BE BOIL$ D[N 9TO SEP>ATE & DISCRETE SUBSETS ( 9T]E/S :I* CAN !N BE MEAN+FULLY >BITRAT$4 ,?IS IS DIFFICULT TO GRASP BECAUSE WE HAVE BECOME SO ACCLIMATIZ$ TO ! /ATE-BAS$ SY/EM3 ! 9T]NATIONAL DIPLOMATIC =UMS ) !IR NEATLY LETT]$ NAME C>DS ADORN+ S]RI$ R[S AT ! ,U,N ,G5]AL ,ASSEMBLY OR ,EUROPEAN ,C\NCIL4 ,BUT REFLECT = A MOM5T & ! ABSURDITY BECOMES CLE>3 ,H[ IS IT A T9Y GR\P ( PEOPLE CAN POSSIBLY KN[ :AT IS BE/ = !IR C\NTRY ( MILLIONS8 ,BY EXT5SION1 IT IS EQUALLY IMPLAUSIBLE TO EXPECT ?AT A COLLECTION ( SU* T9Y GR\PS1 MEET+ AT1 SAY1 ! ,U,N OR ,G#b1 CAN PRODUCE MEAN+FUL & EFFECTIVE AGREEM5TS = ! :OLE GLOBE8 ,! DISCONNECTION IS SIMPLY TOO GREAT4 ,!Y >E REQUIR$ TO ASSUME1 TO GUESS4 ,!Y KN[ IT1 AS ,I KNEW IT4 ,BUT IT IS ! RE/ :O BELIEVE IT4 

,! PROBLEM IS MORE 9SIDI\S & DAMAG+ 9 ITS EFFECTS ?AN M]ELY ?IS4 ,! REQUIREM5T ( ! SY/EM IS ?AT ! NE$S & WANTS ( ! WORLD'S PEOPLES >E R$UC$ 9TO SU* SUBSETS--A R$UCTIVE REQUIREM5T4 ,?AT NE$ TO R$UCE ! COMPLEXITY ( REALITY 9TO SIMPLICITY IMPOSES UPON ! DIPLOMATS & O!R D5IZ5S ( ! SY/EM AN UNNATURAL & DI/ORT+ BURD5--TO TURN !IR UND]/&+ ( ! WORLD1 & \R NE$S UPON IT1 9TO SOME?+ ELSE3 ! CALCULUS ( /ATES4 ,MO/ ( ! TIME ?IS PROCESS IS 9VISIBLE1 ASSUM$ & UNREM>K$ UPON4 ,ONLY OCCASIONALLY >E ITS AB]RATIONS SO GROSS ?AT !Y BREAK ! SURFACE ( \R 9DIFF]5CE--= ME1 IT WAS ! EXP]I5CE ( ,IRAQ SANCTIONS :]E ,I REALIZ$1 & ONLY 9 RETROSPECT1 ! GROSS DIVIDE BETWE5 MY [N BELIEFS & UND]/&+ ( :AT WAS RI<T1 & ! WAY ,I WAS REQUIR$ TO ?9K--& DO--AT ! TIME4 

,!RE IS AN ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE CONSEQU5CE ( ?IS /ATE-DOM9AT$ MODE ( ?9K+4 ,! *ESS GAME REQUIRES TWO SIDES TO BE PLAY$3 :ITE & BLACK4 ,! PROCESS ( SIMPLIFY+ & OV]/AT+ \R [N NE$S1 KN[N AS CALCULAT+ \R 9T]E/S1 REQUIRES A RECIPROCAL TE*NIQUE4 ,IF !RE IS TO BE AN 0,US10 !RE MU/ ALSO BE A 0,!M40 

,?IS HAPP5$ ON ! ,IRAQ SANCTIONS ISSUE AT ! ,U,N ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL1 :]E ! DIPLOMATS GAILY P]PETUAT$ ! NATIONAL DIVISIONS BETWE5 OPPOS+ DELEGATIONS1 EV5 :5 !RE W]E NO FACTS TO DISAGREE OV]4 ,I WAS A WILL+ P>TICIPANT 9 ?IS F>CE3 ! ,U,K_/,U4,S4 W\LD VETO PROPOSALS MADE BY ! 0O!R0 SIDE1 9 ?IS CASE ,FRANCE & ,RUSSIA1 EV5 IF WE \RSELVES HAD MADE ! V]Y SAME PROPOSAL A FEW WEEKS E>LI] & !Y HAD BLOCK$ !M4 ,! EFFECT ( SU* ESS5TIALIZ+--! SEGREGATION ( \RSELVES 9TO TWO COMPET+ SIDES--WAS NOT TO R$UCE CONFLICT1 BUT TO P]PETUATE IT4 

,IT IS NOT CO9CID5CE ?AT IT IS GOV]NM5TS ?AT P]=M ?IS ESS5TIALIZ+4 ,!Y MU/4 ,IT IS NECESS>Y = GOV]NM5T1 & ! DIPLOMATS :O REPRES5T IT1 & ! POLITICIANS :O LEAD IT1 TO CLAIM ?AT ONLY !Y CAN SPEAK = ! :OLE C\NTRY4 ,EQUALLY1 !RE=E1 !Y MU/ AFFIRM ! NATURE ( ! 9T]NATIONAL SY/EM BY ACCEPT+ ?AT O!R GOV]NM5TS SPEAK = !IR :OLE C\NTRIES4 ,A MOD]N DIPLOMAT W\LD D5Y ?AT !Y >E SO CRASS AS TO G5]ALIZE AB\T O!R CULTURES & C\NTRIES 9 ! WAY ?AT ,I HAVE DESCRIB$4 ,( C\RSE1 !Y AV]1 :5 !Y TALK AB\T ,IRAN'S POLICY1 !Y MEAN ! POLICY ( ! ,IRANIAN GOV]NM5T1 & 9DE$ ?AT IS (T5 H[ !Y WILL DESCRIBE IT4 

,BUT DESPITE ?IS DESIGNATIVE C>E1 ! HABIT ( REF]R+ TO :OLE C\NTRIES 9 ! S+UL> & REF]R+ TO !IR GOV]NM5T AS ! EMBODIM5T ( ?AT /ATE IS ONE AS DEEP-ROOT$ AS ! /ATE-BAS$ 9T]NATIONAL SY/EM ITSELF4 ,TO *ANGE ! NAM+ ( ! ACTORS1 TO REMOVE ! ASSUMPTION ?AT GOV]NM5TS REPRES5T ! :OLE ( !IR C\NTRIES1 W\LD BE TO *ANGE ! NATURE ( ! 9T]NATIONAL SY/EM1 FROM ONE BAS$ >\ND /ATES AS ! PRIM>Y UNIT ( AG5CY1 TO ONE BAS$ ON SOME O!R UNIT4 ,BUT AS LONG AS GOV]NM5TS WI% TO HOLD SWAY 9 9T]NATIONAL POLICY & DECISION MAK+1 !Y MU/ CONT9UALLY REAFFIRM NOT ONLY !IR [N BUT EA* O!R'S LEGITIMACY TO SPEAK = !IR C\NTRIES1 EV5 :5 ! GOV]NM5T IS AS GROTESQUELY UNDEMOCRATIC AS1 SAY1 ! ,SYRIAN OR ,NOR? ,KOREAN REGIMES4 

,ONE ( ! SEM9AL TEXTS ?AT HELP$ DEF9E ! NATURE ( DIPLOMACY IS BY ,FRANCOIS DE ,CALLI]ES 9 ,P>IS1 PUBLI%$ 9 #a#g#a#f4.<#a#a#f.>  ,DE ,CALLI]ES SAW ! PR9CIPAL FUNCTION ( DIPLOMACY AS MOD]AT+ & MANAG+ ! CLA% ( CONFLICT+ 9T]E/S AS EFFICI5TLY AS POSSIBLE4 ,! DIPLOMAT WAS REQUIR$ TO ASSESS H[ ! 9T]E/S ( HIS /ATE1 & ! O!R /ATE1 C\LD BE MET 9 T]MS ACCEPTABLE TO BO?4 

,ONE CAN SEE H[ REM>KABLY SIMIL> ?IS CONCEPTION ( DIPLOMACY IS TO ! WAY IT IS USUALLY CONCEIV$ TODAY4 ,YET ! WORLD IS REM>KABLY DIFF]5T4 ,! PO/W> E/ABLI%M5T ( NEW MULTILAT]AL DIPLOMATIC MA*9]IES--! ,UNIT$ ,NATIONS1 ,N,A,T,O & ! ,EUROPEAN ,UNION--:ILE CREAT+ NEW =UMS = /ATE-TO-/ATE 9T]ACTIONS1 HAS NOT ALT]$ ! FUNDAM5TAL IDEA ?AT DIPLOMACY IS AB\T /ATES ID5TIFY+ !IR 9T]E/S & >BITRAT+ !M ) ONE ANO!R3 ?AT !SE 9T]E/S & ID5TITIES >E SUSCEPTIBLE TO CALCULATION4 ,9DE$1 !SE 9/ITUTIONS >E PREMIS$ ON ! V]Y NOTION ?AT /ATES CAN MEET !RE & DECIDE UPON !IR COMMON PROBLEMS4 ,IT IS !RE=E NO SURPRISE ?AT DIPLOMATS T5D TO R5D] ! WORLD & ITS MYRIAD PROBLEMS 9TO !SE %APES4 ,?AT ?IS PROCESS IS BECOM+ MORE & MORE >TIFICIAL1 & DISCONNECT$ FROM ! REALITY ( ! =CES AT WORK 9 ! WORLD1 IS ONLY N[ BECOM+ EVID5T 5\< TO COMPEL *ANGE4 

,! NEGATIVE CONSEQU5CES ( ?IS K9D ( ?9K+ CAN BE CLE>LY SE5 9 NEGOTIATIONS OV] ISSUES ( COMMON GLOBAL CONC]N1 LIKE CLIMATE *ANGE4 ,H]E1 :]E A %>$ SOLUTION IS CLE>LY NECESS>Y & URG5T1 ! HABIT ( /ATE-L$ ?9K+ /ILL DOM9ATES4 ,:ILE 0WORLD LEAD]S0 & ,U,N (FICIALS PONTIFICAT$ AB\T ! L(TY GOALS ( ! PROCESS1 ! NEGOTIATORS 9 NATIONAL DELEGATIONS 9 ! TR5*ES ( ! CONF]5CE RESORT$ TO TYPE4 ,Z]O-SUM B>GA9+ OV] CONCESSIONS & COMMITM5TS DOM9AT$ ! DISCUSSIONS1 ) ! USUAL RANCOR & F+]-PO9T+ :5 A DEAL--PR$ICTABLY--PROV$ IMPOSSIBLE TO F9D4 ,SOME DELEGATES SUGGE/$ ?AT ! ,E>?'S ATMOSPH]E WAS DIVISIBLE & ?AT ! 9DU/RIALIZ$ NATIONS HAD ALREADY TAK5 !IR 0%>E10 AS IF ! ATMOSPH]E W]E A CAKE TO BE SLIC$ UP4 

,AS ! HEAD ( ,GRE5PEACE DEJECT$LY /AT$ AT ! DISMAL 5D ( ! ,COP5HAG5 SUMMIT3 0,IT SEEMS !RE >E TOO FEW POLITICIANS 9 ?IS WORLD CAPABLE ( LOOK+ BEYOND ! HORIZON ( !IR [N N>R[ SELF-9T]E/1 LET ALONE C>+ MU* = ! MILLIONS ( PEOPLE :O >E FAC+ D[N ! ?REAT ( CLIMATE *ANGE10 HE SAID4 0,IT IS N[ EVID5T ?AT BEAT+ GLOBAL W>M+ WILL REQUIRE A RADICALLY DIFF]5T MODEL ( POLITICS ?AN ! ONE ON DISPLAY H]E 9 ,COP5HAG540 ,HE DIDN'T SAY :AT ?AT MODEL WAS1 H[EV]4 

,SOME W\LD >GUE ?AT ! SOLUTION TO ?IS PROBLEM IS TO 9CREASE ! NUMB] ( SUPRANATIONAL 9/ITUTIONS LIKE ! ,EUROPEAN ,UNION OR ! ,UNIT$ ,NATIONS1 :]E UNELECT$ (FICIALS *OS5 BY ! MEMB] /ATES CAN SOMEH[ TRANSC5D ! DIFF]5CES ?AT B$EVIL NATION /ATES4 

,H[EV]1 H]E TOO ! \TPUTS >E DISAPPO9T+4 ,AGA91 WE >E CONFRONT$ ) A VA/1 CONFUS+ & OBSCURE TABLEAU ( PROCESSES & GR\PS & SUBGR\PS ?AT PRET5D TO SOLVE COMMON PROBLEMS1 FROM T]RORI/ F9ANC+ TO AVIAN FLU & ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ PEACE PROCESS4 ,IT IS CLE> ?AT ! EXI/5CE ( SU* PROCESSES CAN HAVE 9 ITSELF A DEBILITATIVE EFFECT3 ,! M]E EXI/5CE ( A 0PROCESS0 CREATES ! ]RONE\S IMPRESSION ?AT SOME?+ IS BE+ DONE1 :5 IT IS NOT4 

,! DYSFUNCTIONAL ,COP5HAG5 CLIMATE PROCESS IS ONE EXAMPLE4 ,ANO!R1 LESS] KN[N1 IS ! 0PEACE PROCESS0 TO RESOLVE ! ILLEGAL OCCUPATION ( ! ,WE/]N ,SAH>A4 ,?IS 0PROCESS0 HAS LA/$ S9CE ! CEASE-FIRE 9 #aii BETWE5 ! OCCUPI]S1 ,MOROCCO1 & ! REPRES5TATIVES ( ! 9DIG5\S PEOPLE1 ! ,SAHRAWIS--TW5TY YE>S & C\NT+--:5 ,MOROCCO AGRE$ TO A REF]5DUM = ! T]RITORY'S PEOPLE TO DECIDE !IR /ATUS1 AN AGREEM5T & LEGAL REQUIREM5T 5DORS$ MANY TIMES BY ! 09T]NATIONAL COMMUNITY0 AT ! ,U,N4 ,EV]Y C\NTRY 9 ! WORLD PRET5DS TO SUPPORT ?IS PROCESS1 RUN BY ! ,U,N1 BUT NONE DOES ANY?+ 9 REALITY TO ADVANCE IT4 ,! REF]5DUM HAS NEV] TAK5 PLACE4 ,9 FACT1 ! 0PROCESS0 IS A WAY ( %ELV+ ! ISSUE 9DEF9ITELY1 TO P]MIT ! EXI/+ /ATUS QUO--( OCCUPATION4 ,! PROCESS IS ?US A %AM1 ! OPPOSITE ( :AT IT PRET5DS TO BE4 

,BO? ! ,UNIT$ ,NATIONS & ! ,EUROPEAN ,UNION HAVE CONTRIBUT$ 5ORM\SLY TO LIMIT+ ! TW5TIE?-C5TURY SC\RGE ( 9T]NATIONAL CONFLICT4 ,! ,E,U HAS B\ND ,EUROPEAN C\NTRIES TOGE!R SO TI<TLY ?AT W>1 ONCE HABITUAL1 HAS N[ BECOME UN?9KABLE4 ,! ,U,N'S SIXTY-YE> EXI/5CE HAS WITNESS$ A /EEP DECL9E 9 ! 9T]/ATE CONFLICT PROHIBIT$ BY ITS *>T]4 ,BUT 9 !SE SUCCESSES1 NEW WEAKNESSES HAVE EM]G$1 NOT LEA/ 9 DEAL+ ) ! MORE FLUID & B\ND>Y-LESS PROBLEMS ( ! TW5TY-FIR/ C5TURY4 ,! ,U,N ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL WAS E/ABLI%$ TO PREV5T W>S BETWE5 /ATES4 ,TODAY1 NOT LESS ?AN #h P]C5T ( ITS AG5DA CONC]NS ISSUES 9VOLV+ NON/ATE ACTORS1 & CONFLICTS BO? )9 & SOMETIMES TRANSC5D+ /ATES1 LIKE T]RORISM4.<#a#a#g.> 

,FATALLY1 ALL SU* MULTILAT]AL OR SUPRANATIONAL 9/ITUTIONS SUFF] AN IRR$EEMABLE DEFICIT ( DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY4 ,! GREAT] ! DI/ANCE BETWE5 REPRES5TATIVE & ELECTOR1 ! LESS LEGITIMATE ?AT REPRES5TATIVE4 ,! ,U,N ,SECRET>Y-,G5]AL IS1 AT LEA/ 9 !ORY1 SUPPOS$ TO REPRES5T US1 BUT NO ONE EXCEPT ! PUBLIC IS EXPECT$ TO BELIEVE ?AT HE DOES4 ,! ,U,N ,SECRET>Y-,G5]AL IS WELL AW>E ?AT IT IS ! REALPOLITIK]S ( ! FIVE P]MAN5T MEMB]S ( ! ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL :O MAIL HIS PAY*ECK EV]Y MON?1 & HE BEHAVES ACCORD+LY1 JU/ AS ! PRESID5T ( ! ,E,U TAKES C>E TO KEEP 9 CLOSE /EP ) ! MAJOR P[]S ( ! ,E,U3 ,FRANCE1 ! ,U,K & ,G]MANY4 ,I HAVE (T5 ATT5D$ MEET+S BETWE5 MY AMBASSADOR AT ! ,U,N & ! ,SECRET>Y-,G5]AL :]E HE W\LD BE TOLD 9 UNMI/AKABLE T]MS :AT P>TY L9E HE & HIS /AFF W]E REQUIR$ TO TOE4 ,IT DIDN'T HAVE TO BE SPELL$ \T 9 ?REATS1 M]ELY IMPLI$ & H9T$ AT4 ,HE 9V>IABLY GOT ! MESSAGE4 

,= ! ORD9>Y CITIZ51 9/ITUTIONS LIKE ! ,U,N & ! ,E,U >E EV5 MORE IMP5ETRABLE & OPAQUE ?AN !IR ALREADY DI/ANT NATIONAL GOV]NM5TS4 ,I RUN A NONPR(IT DIPLOMATIC CONSULTANCY4 ,ITS /AFF WORKS FULL-TIME TO UND]/& ! WORLD'S DIPLOMATIC & MULT9ATIONAL 9/ITUTIONS1 & WE F9D IT DIFFICULT TO WORK \T :O DOES :AT1 & :]E REAL DECISIONS >E MADE4 ,PITY ! ORD9>Y CITIZ5 SEEK+ A HE>+ 9 ! %9Y BUT DISMAL CORRIDORS ( ! ,E,U'S 9/ITUTIONS 9 ,BRUSSELS4 ,EV5 = ! ACUTE1 IT IS ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO F9D \T :O IS TRULY RESPONSIBLE = ANY?+4 ,IT IS REM9ISC5T ( NO?+ SO MU* AS ! PA!TIC QUEUES ( PROV9CIAL ,*9ESE :O MAKE DESP]ATE BUT HOPELESS PILGRIMAGE TO ,BEIJ+ TO SEEK SETTLEM5T ( GRIEVANCES AGA9/ CORRUPT OR 9COMPET5T ,COMMUNI/ ,P>TY (FICIALS4 

,MOREOV]1 BUT MORE SUBTLY1 ! (FICIALS !MSELVES >E DANG]\SLY DETA*$ FROM ! PROBLEM--& ! PEOPLE--!Y >E SEEK+ TO >BITRATE4 ,I SAW ?IS 9 ! ,U,N ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL--IT WAS A CURI\SLY DRY & BOR+ PLACE TO WORK DESPITE ITS DRAMATIC AG5DA ( G5OCIDE & CIVIL W>4 ,! BLOOD & EMOTION ( !SE CONFLICTS WAS ABS5T 9 ITS DISCUSSIONS1 & IT WAS NOT A GOOD ABS5CE3 ,IT WAS NOT CONDUCIVE TO BETT] NEGOTIATION1 BUT TO WORSE4 ,= ONE ?+1 ! P>TIES TO ! DISPUTES ON ! C\NCIL'S AG5DA W]E ALMO/ 9V>IABLY ABS5T FROM !SE DELIB]ATIONS--IT IS H>DLY A RECIPE = GOOD DECISION MAK+ TO IGNORE ! VIEWS ( ?OSE MO/ CONC]N$4 ,MOREOV]1 ! EMOTIONAL & MORAL CONT5T ( EV5TS1 SO CRUCIAL TO ! MOTIVATION TO SOLVE SU* PROBLEMS1 WAS MISS+4 ,BETWE5 ! REALITY ( ! PROBLEMS & \R DELIB]ATIONS WAS A HUGE & UNBRIDGEABLE DIVIDE1 NOT ONLY ( ACTUAL DI/ANCE--= WE W]E USUALLY MANY ?\S&S ( MILES FROM ! DISPUTES WE DISCUSS$--BUT ( IMPORT4 

,!SE DEFICITS >E 9TR9SIC TO SUPRANATIONAL 9/ITUTIONS1 JU/ AS ! LIMITS ( NATION-/ATE ?9K+ >E 9H]5T TO ! NATION-/ATE SY/EM1 A SY/EM ?AT HAS1 S9CE ! ,PEACE ( ,WE/PHALIA ( #a#f#d#h1 DOM9AT$ WORLD AFFAIRS4 ,GIV5 !SE DEFICITS1 ! ANSW] TO \R GLOBAL PROBLEMS MAY NOT 9 FACT BE MORE DIPLOMACY & 9T]NATIONAL NEGOTIATION1 AT LEA/ NOT ( ! CURR5T K9D4 ,?US CONV5TIONAL WISDOM IS TURN$ ON ITS HEAD3 ,WE DO NOT NE$ MORE /ATE-TO-/ATE DIPLOMACY TO SOLVE !SE PROBLEMS2 WE MAY1 9 FACT1 NE$ LESS4 ,& 9/EAD ( RELY+ ON /ATE-TO-/ATE DIPLOMACY TO MANAGE ! WORLD1 WE MU/ DO SO \RSELVES4 ,AS WRIT] ,P>AG ,KHANNA HAS COMM5T$1 0,AS WAS ! CASE A MILL5NIUM AGO1 DIPLOMACY N[ TAKES PLACE AMONG ANYONE :O IS SOMEONE2 ITS PR]EQUISITE IS NOT SOV]EIGNTY BUT AU?ORITY40 

,! DEFICITS ( ! /ATE-BAS$ SY/EM >E COMMONLY KN[N1 YET !SE SY/EMS 5DURE1 EV5 :5 ! OP]ATORS ( ! SY/EM--MY MANY & CYNICAL DIPLOMATIC COLLEAGUES--HAVE !MSELVES CEAS$ TO BELIEVE 9 !M4 ,AS !Y TAKE ! /& AT PUBLIC 9QUIRIES1 OR ADDRESS ! PRESS1 !Y CAN H>DLY BELIEVE ?AT ANYONE /ILL BELIEVES !M4 ,IT IS A HOLL[1 HOLL[ FEEL+ & ,I KN[ IT4 ,!SE SY/EMS WILL CONT9UE TO 5DURE UNTIL ?OSE 9 :OSE NAME !Y CLAIM TO FUNCTION )DRAW !IR CONS5T4 ,! PACT IS BROK52 IT DOESN'T WORK4 ,TO NAME A PROBLEM AS 09T]NATIONAL0 IS TO ABSOLVE ONESELF ( RESPONSIBILITY & TO PLACE A SOLUTION 9 ! H&S ( ?OSE PROV5 MANIFE/LY 9CAPABLE4 ,! 9T]NATIONAL IS NOT 9T]NATIONAL ANY MORE2 IT IS SIMPLY US4 

,& H]E IS ! MO/ 9SIDI\S & YET HIDD5 EFFECT ( ! 9T]NATIONAL SY/EM--( 9T]/ATE DIPLOMACY--AS IT CURR5TLY EXI/S4 ,IT IS NOT ?AT ?IS SY/EM MAY EXAC]BATE DIFF]5CES1 =CE ITS PLAY]S TO DEF9E !MSELVES MORE />KLY ?AN !Y O!RWISE MI<T1 NOR ?AT ITS EXPON5TS MU/ NATURALLY REFLECT A CALCULUS NOT ( ! MESSY & DIV]SE HUMAN FAMILY BUT ( !SE /RANGE & >TIFICIAL UNITS1 /ATES1 OR ?AT !SE EXPON5TS >E1 AS ,I ONCE WAS1 :OLLY SEP>AT$ FROM !IR S5SE ( MORAL RESPONSIBILITY = !IR ACTIONS4 ,!SE DEFICITS >E NOT ! WOR/ ASPECT ( ?IS SY/EM4 7,! 0,LIVE#h0 TEXT MESSAGES TO ! ,G#h ,SUMMIT PROVIDE A CLUE47 

,! MO/ DANG]\S EFFECT ( ! SY/EM IS NOT ?AT IT DOESN'T WORK2 IT IS ?AT WE1 9 :OSE NAME IT IS SUPPOS$ TO FUNCTION1 CONDONE IT1 PRET5D TO BELIEVE IT CONTR>Y TO ALL EVID5CE & P]MIT IT TO CONT9UE4.<#a#g#d.> 

,IT IS ONE ?+ TO ACCEPT ?IS CRITIQUE1 BUT IT IS ANO!R TO EMBODY ?IS PHILOSOPHICAL %IFT4 ,9 A WORLD ( GLOBAL T]RORISM1 A RIS+ ,9DIA & ,*9A1 & 9T5SE NATIONAL COMPETITION = SC>CE RES\RCES1 :AT MEAN+FUL ACTION IS AVAILABLE TO ! 9DIVIDUAL8 ,H[ CAN ! WORLD BE MADE TO REFLECT ITS HUMAN REALITY RA!R ?AN ITS 9H]IT$ & 9APPROPRIATE DEL9EATIONS ( SEGREGAT$ /ATES & PEOPLES8 

,ONE OBVI\S ANSW] IS = 9DIVIDUALS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS NATIONS & /ATES >\ND COMMON CAUSES4 ,?IS IS ALREADY BEG9N+ TO HAPP53 WITNESS ! GLOBAL MOVEM5TS >\ND CLIMATE *ANGE OR ! PROTECTION ( HUMAN RI<TS4 7,IDEAS TO GUIDE SU* ACTION WILL BE MORE FULLY ELABORAT$ LAT]47 ,LESS 5C\RAG+LY1 SU* BORD]LESS COOP]ATION IS ALSO VISIBLE 9 ! TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZATION ( DRUG TRAFFICK+ OR JIHADI/ T]RORISM1 :]E EXTREMI/S ( MANY DIFF]5T NATIONALITIES HAVE GA!R$ >\ND ! FLAG ( ! NEW ,UMMA4 

,IT IS TOO EASY TO SUCCUMB TO DEFEATISM 9 REG>D+ ! WORLD TODAY--ITS WEAPONS1 ITS /ATES1 ITS SELF-S]V+ & BUMPTI\S LEAD]S4 ,H[ ON E>? >E WE SUPPOS$ TO DEAL ) ?AT8 ,IT MI<T BE REVEAL+ TO LOOK AT AN ISSUE ?AT 9SPIRES ! MO/ PESSIMISM & ALSO ! MO/ HORROR4 ,NUCLE> WEAPONS EMBODY 9 !IR V]Y EXI/5CE ! POSSIBILITY ( APPALL+ DE/RUCTION & 9DE$ ! ANNIHILATION ( HUMANITY AS A SPECIES4 ,9 SOME WAYS1 !Y MANIFE/ ! GROSS 9HUMANITY ( ! /ATE SY/EM--?AT 9 ORD] TO DEF5D ! /ATE1 GOV]NM5TS >E PREP>$ TO USE WEAPONS ?AT ?REAT5 ! DE/RUCTION NOT ONLY ( !IR [N POPULATION1 BUT ! 5TIRE WORLD'S4 

,! CONV5TIONAL ANSW] TO ?IS PROBLEM HAS BE5 TO LOOK TO GOV]NM5TS TO GET RID ( NUCLE> WEAPONS4 ,EV5 ! DEMON/RATORS MASS+ ON ! /REETS WAV+ BANN]S ULTIMATELY URGE !IR GOV]NM5TS TO RESPOND4 ,IS ?IS A REALI/IC AMBITION8 

,! #ba REVIEW CONF]5CE ( ! ,NON-,PROLIF]ATION ,TREATY 7,N,P,T71 ! CORN]/ONE ( ! WORLD'S EF=TS TO R$UCE NUCLE> WEAPONS1 LA/$ A MON? & 9VOLV$ HI<LY SKILL$ DELEGATIONS FROM SOMEONE HUNDR$ N9ETY C\NTRIES4 ,! AGREEM5T !Y REA*$ WAS LAUD$ AS A SUCCESS1 PRIM>ILY BECAUSE1 UNLIKE PREVI\S REVIEW CONF]5CES = ! LA/ DECADE1 ?IS GA!R+ HAD ACTUALLY A*IEV$ AGREEM5T4 ,BUT ! CONT5T ( ! AGREEM5T--! \TPUT--WAS FEEBLE1 DESPITE ! 9T]NATIONAL ATMOSPH]E BE+ ITS MO/ PROPITI\S = DECADES4 

,AS USUAL1 ! 0\TCOME DOCUM5T0 WAS LONG--TW5TY-EI<T J>GON-LAD5 & B>ELY COMPREH5SIBLE PAGES--) A MISLEAD+ SIXTY-F\R 0ACTION PO9TS10 MO/ ( :I* AM\NT TO NO SUB/ANTIVE ACTION :ATSOEV]4 ,! VA/ MAJORITY >E DECL>ATIVE3 0REAFFIRM+10 0WELCOM+0 OR 0NOT+40 ,! PRESS1 FOCUS+ ON ONE SMALL P>T ( ! =E/1 MADE GREAT PLAY ( ! AGREEM5T TO HOLD A CONF]5CE--9 ! FUTURE--ON A NUCLE>-FREE ,MIDDLE ,EA/1 BUT EV5 ?AT AGREEM5T LEFT \T ! ONLY C\NTRY 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ CURR5TLY POSSESS+ NUCLE> WEAPONS1 ,ISRAEL4 ,O!RWISE1 ! CONF]5CE AGRE$ M]ELY TO 5C\RAGE ! NUCLE> WEAPONS /ATES TO MAKE MORE CONCRETE PROGRESS T[>D NUCLE> DIS>MAM5T & R$UCE ! USE ( NUCLE> WEAPONS 9 !IR MILIT>Y DOCTR9ES2 BUT ATTEMPTS TO MAKE SU* DIS>MAM5T CONCRETE & OBLIGATORY ?R\< A NUCLE> WEAPONS CONV5TION W]E FI]CELY RESI/$ BY ! NUCLE> WEAPONS /ATES4 ,AS EV5 ! MO/ FAVORABLE COMM5TATORS PUT IT1 ALL ?AT WAS AGRE$ WAS A FUR!R PROCESS1 NOT AN \TPUT4.<#a#a#h.> 

,9 ITS CLOS+ /ATEM5T1 ,CUBA NOT$ PO9T$LY :AT ! REVIEW CONF]5CE HAD NOT AGRE$3 NO TIMETABLE ON NUCLE> DIS>MAM5T2 NO COMMITM5T TO BEG9 NEGOTIATIONS ON A NUCLE> WEAPONS CONV5TION2 NO CLE> COMMITM5T TO /OP ! DEVELOPM5T ( NUCLE> WEAPONS2 NO CALL = )DRAWAL ( NUCLE> WEAPONS TO HOME T]RITORIES 7I4E41 \T ( ,EUROPE72 & NO LEGALLY B9D+ NEGATIVE SECURITY ASSURANCES--WE %ALL COME TO !SE /RANGE CREATURES LAT]4 

,PRESID5T ,OBAMA HAS DECL>$ HIS 9T5TION ( ULTIMATELY RIDD+ ! WORLD ( NUCLE> WEAPONS4 ,! ,GLOBAL ,Z]O CAMPAIGN1 SUPPORT$ BY MANY PROM95T =M] /ATESM5 & WOM5 & HI<LI<T$ 9 A POPUL> DOCUM5T>Y FILM1 ,C\NTD[N TO ,Z]O1 IS ADVOCAT+ ! SAME4 ,BUT IT IS A FAIR BET ?AT 9 ! CURR5T /ATE-BAS$ DISP5SATION1 !SE NOBLE EF=TS WILL FAIL4 ,= IT IS IMPLAUSIBLE TO EXPECT ?AT ,*9A1 OR ,RUSSIA1 OR EV5 ,FRANCE OR ,BRITA91 LET ALONE ,ISRAEL OR ,PAKI/AN1 WILL GIVE UP ?IS ULTIMATE GU>ANTOR ( !IR SECURITY1 EV5 IF SOME R$UCTIONS MAY NEV]!LESS BE POSSIBLE4 ,AS TOTAL >S5ALS GO D[N1 L\D] & L\D] WILL BECOME ! >GUM5T ?AT NUCLE> WEAPONS HAVE SUCCESSFULLY PREV5T$ MASS CONV5TIONAL W> BETWE5 !IR POSSESSORS4 ,IT'S A PLAUSIBLE >GUM5T1 AS LONG AS ! PROXY CONV5TIONAL W>S ?AT !SE P[]S F\<T ON ! T]RITORIES ( O!RS >E IGNOR$4 ,BUT NONE!LESS1 ! >GUM5T HAS =CE4 ,TOTAL DIS>MAM5T RELIES ON SOME?+ ?AT EVID5TLY DOES NOT EXI/--COMPLETE CONFID5CE & TRU/ 9 ! COMMITM5TS ( O!RS ?AT !Y TOO HAVE DIS>M$ IRREV]SIBLY1 & ?AT !Y WILL NOT LAUN* CONV5TIONAL ATTACK4 

,! ,N,P,T'S ANSW] TO ?IS PROBLEM IS FUNDAM5TALLY RIDICUL\S4 ,TO ! NON-NUCLE> /ATES :O DEM& ASSURANCE ?AT !Y WILL NOT BE ! VICTIM ( NUCLE> ATTACK1 ! NUCLE> WEAPONS /ATES 7,N,W,S7 HAVE (F]$ 0REV]SE SECURITY GU>ANTEES0--PROMISES ?AT !Y WILL NOT USE NUCLE> WEAPONS AGA9/ NON-NUCLE> /ATES 9 C]TA9 CIRCUM/ANCES4 ,! 0PROGRESS0 ( ! #ba REVIEW CONF]5CE WAS ?AT ! CONF]5CE AGRE$ TO CONSID] MAK+ !SE 0GU>ANTEES0 LEGALLY B9D+4 ,9 O!R WORDS1 IF A NUCLE> WEAPONS /ATE DROPP$ ! BOMB OR BOMBS ON A NON-NUCLE> /ATE1 ! VICTIM /ATE W\LD BE ABLE TO SEEK R$RESS 9 AN 9T]NATIONAL C\RT1 PRESUM+ ?AT !RE W\LD REMA9--PO/-APOCALYPSE--A GOV]NM5T1 LAWY]S OR C\RTS ) :I* TO PRESS SU* A CLAIM4 ,& SU* LEGAL OBLIGATIONS W\LD >ISE ONLY IF ! NUCLE> WEAPONS /ATES AGREE TO !M1 :I* !Y HAVE YET TO DO3 ,AT ! REVIEW CONF]5CE1 !Y AGRE$ ONLY TO 0CONSID]0 !M4 ,SU* REV]SE GU>ANTEES1 EV5 IF LEGALLY 5=CEABLE1 >E UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE MU* REASSURANCE IF1 = 9/ANCE1 ,UKRA9E F9DS ITSELF DEAL+ ) A FASCI/-L$ NUCLE>->M$ ,RUSSIA1 :I* UN=TUNATELY IS A MORE PLAUSIBLE PROSPECT ?AN ! LEGALLY B9D+ REV]SE SECURITY ASSURANCES4 

,UND] ! ,N,P,T1 ! ,U,K1 LIKE ALL O!R DECL>$ NUCLE>->M$ /ATES1 IS 9 !ORY COMMITT$ TO DIS>M ITSELF ( ALL ( ITS NUCLE> WEAPONS4 ,! ,N,P,T WAS F\ND$ ON A CONCEPTUAL B>GA9--?AT ! RE/ ( ! WORLD W\LD NOT DEVELOP !IR [N NUCLE> WEAPONS CAPABILITY1 AS LONG AS ! NUCLE> WEAPONS /ATES AGRE$ TO GET RID ( !IRS1 EV5TUALLY4 ,ONE 9DICATOR ( ! 0PROGRESS0 MADE AT ! #ba CONF]5CE WAS ?AT ! ,U,K = ! FIR/ TIME DECL>$ ! FULL NUMB] ( ITS NUCLE> WEAPONS4 ,NO O!R DECL>$ ,N,W,S HAS DONE SO4 ,REVEAL+LY BUT P]HAPS ALSO MO/ HONE/LY1 ,FRANCE 9SI/$ ?AT ! GOAL ( ! ,N,P,T 0PROCESS0 NOT BE /AT$ AS A 0WORLD FREE ( NUCLE> WEAPONS10 BUT ! CREATION ( 0CONDITIONS :I* WILL LEAD TO A WORLD FREE ( NUCLE> WEAPONS40 

,E>LI] ?AT YE>1 ! ,U4,S4 & ,RUSSIA AGRE$ UND] ! ,/RATEGIC ,>MS ,R$UCTION ,TREATY1 OR ,/,>,T1 TO A R$UCTION 9 !IR >S5ALS ( NUCLE> WEAPONS4 ,H]ALD$ AS (F]+ SUB/ANTIAL NEW R$UCTIONS1 SOME ANALY/S JUDGE ?AT 9 REALITY ! AGREEM5T B>ELY AFFECTS ! NUMB] ( ACTUAL DEPLOY$ WEAPONS1 & 9VOLVES NO R$UCTION 9 ! NUMB] ( ,RUSSIAN LAUN* VEHICLES4.<#a#a#i.>  ,BO? P[]S CONT9UE TO MA9TA9 HUNDR$S ( NUCLE> DELIV]Y SY/EMS AT ,COLD ,W> LEVELS ( AL]T3 READY TO BE LAUN*$ )9 A FEW M9UTES4 ,ONE RESPECT$ ?9K TANK NOT$ ?AT 0:ILE ! OP]ATIONAL READ9ESS ( SOME WEAPON SY/EMS HAS BE5 R$UC$1 !RE HAS BE5 NO MAJOR *ANGE 9 ! READ9ESS LEVELS ( MO/ ( ! NUCLE> WEAPON SY/EMS 9 ! PO/-,COLD ,W> ]A40.<#a#b.> 

,9/EAD1 IT IS MORE PLAUSIBLE TO REF] TO1 RE9=CE & PROMOTE A REALITY ?AT ! DIPLOMATS1 POLITICIANS & ANALY/S REFUSE TO CONTEMPLATE4 ,! CALCULUS ( NUCLE> WEAPONS DEP5DS UPON ! EXI/5CE ( ! *ESS BO>D--A 0,!M0 & AN 0,US40 ,IF Y\ ATTACK ME1 ,I WILL ATTACK Y\3 BLACK & :ITE PIECES1 SEGREGAT$ & DISCRETE4 ,IF ?OSE DI/9CTIONS NO LONG] EXI/1 ! GAME CANNOT BE PLAY$4 ,IF 9/EAD ( TWO DI/9CT SETS ( PAWNS & PIECES1 CLE>LY SEP>AT$ ACROSS ! BO>D1 ALL PIECES >E BUT V>Y+ %ADES ( GRAY1 9T]M+L$ & SPREAD ALL OV] ! BO>D4 ,?IS DEPICTION IS MU* CLOS] TO ! CONTEMPOR>Y REALITY1 & ! MORE TIME PASSES1 ! MORE ACCURATE IT WILL BECOME4 ,A ,PAKI/ANI ATTACK ON ,NEW ,DELHI W\LD KILL HUNDR$S ( ?\S&S ( ,MUSLIMS4 ,AN ATTACK ON ,ISRAEL W\LD KILL ?\S&S ( ,>ABS4 ,ANY USE ( NUCLE> WEAPONS1 MORE OR LESS ANY:]E1 W\LD HAVE DEVA/AT+ EFFECTS ON A HI<LY 9T]L9K$ GLOBAL ECONOMY4 ,DE/ROY+ ,NEW ,YORK W\LD KILL PEOPLE FROM EV]Y C\NTRY ON E>?3 PEOPLE ( MORE ?AN N9ETY DIFF]5T NATIONALITIES W]E KILL$ 9 ! DE/RUCTION ( ! TW9 T[]S2 ONE BOR\< ( ! CITY CONTA9S #agd DIFF]5T NATIONALITIES4 ,KILL+ ,!M W\LD MEAN KILL+ ,US4 

,NUCLE> WEAPONS MAKE ?IS D\BLY TRUE AS EV5 A LIMIT$ /RIKE ON ONE C\NTRY W\LD1 ACCORD+ TO REC5T RESE>*1 IMPLY APPALL+ CONSEQU5CES = ! :OLE PLANET4 ,/UDIES HAVE %[N ?AT EV5 A 0SMALL-SCALE0 NUCLE> EX*ANGE1 SAY1 ,9DIA & ,PAKI/AN LAUN*+ FIFTY WEAPONS EA* AGA9/ EA* O!R1 W\LD HAVE DEVA/AT+ CONSEQU5CES NOT ONLY = ! C\NTRIES DIRECTLY T>GET$ BUT = ! GLOBAL 5VIRONM5T & POT5TIALLY = ! SURVIVAL ( MANK9D4.<#a#b#a.>  ,?US1 NUCLE> WEAPONS >E REVEAL$ 9 !IR TRUE NATURE3 NOT AS WEAPONS ( DET]R5CE OR PLAUSIBLE UTILITY1 BUT AS MANK9D'S SUICIDE PILL4 

,?IS TRU? IS ALREADY SL[LY SPREAD+ AMONG SOME 5LI<T5$ MEMB]S ( ! MILIT>Y1 :O >E REALIZ+ ?AT ! USE ( NUCLE> WEAPONS BY /ATES IS BASICALLY IMPLAUSIBLE--& SELF-DE/RUCTIVE--9 ALMO/ ANY CIRCUM/ANCE4 ,! MO/ LIKELY PEOPLE TO USE NUCLE> WEAPONS >E NOT /ATES BUT SUICIDAL MILL5>IAN T]RORI/S4 ,OSAMA B9 ,LAD5'S DEPUTY ,AYMAN AL-,ZAWAHIRI HAS ALREADY WRITT5 A BOOK DISMISS+ MORAL OBJECTIONS TO ! USE ( WEAPONS ( MASS DE/RUCTION1 9CLUD+ NUCLE> WEAPONS4.<#a#b#b.>  ,\R POSSESSION ( NUCLE> WEAPONS IS NO DET]R5T TO SU* ?REATS1 BUT ! V]Y EXI/5CE ( NUCLE> WEAPONS PROVIDES A POSSIBLE ME?OD = !SE EXTREMI/S4 ,?US1 ! BE/ ?+ W\LD BE TO DO AWAY ) !M ALTOGE!R4 

,E/ABLI% ?IS AS A CULTURAL TRU?1 & EV5TUALLY ?AT UND]/&+ WILL FILT] ?R\<4 ,:]EV] POSSIBLE1 TRAVEL1 9T]ACT1 MAKE LOVE1 >GUE1 LIVE ) PEOPLE ELSE:]E4 ,5GAGE2 CO-M+LE4 ,RESI/ ! EF=TS ( GOV]NM5TS & O!RS TO PA9T ! ,O!R 9 />K COLORS1 :E!R BLACK OR :ITE4 ,?R[ AWAY ! *ESSBO>D2 CUT ! GR\ND FROM UND] ?OSE :O W\LD PRET5D HUMANITY IS BUT *ESSM54 ,CEASE US+ ! \TDAT$ NOM5CLATURE ( A WORLD ?AT IS ALREADY REC$+ 9TO HI/ORY2 /OP NAM+2 /OP DIVID+4 

,ONE SURPRIS+ CONCLUSION FROM ?IS ANALYSIS MI<T COME AS A %OCK TO ! ANTIGLOBALIZATION PROTE/]S /ORM+ ! NEXT ,G#h ,SUMMIT3 ,:AT MI<T BE ! MO/ EFFECTIVE TACTIC ULTIMATELY TO GET RID ( NUCLE> WEAPONS IS NOT LESS GLOBALIZATION1 BUT MORE4 ,! DEEP] ! 9T]M+L+1 ! MORE D5SE ! ME% CONNECT+ HUMANITY1 ! LESS ! *ESSBO>D MAY BE CLE>LY DEF9$1 ! MORE ABSURD BECOMES ! CALCULUS ( NUCLE> WEAPONS1 & 9DE$ ( /ATES AS DISCRETE 5TITIES1 !MSELVES4 

,9T]E/+LY1 ?IS REASON+ ALSO APPLIES TO O!R H>MFUL1 IF LESS APOCALYPTIC1 =MS ( W>F>E4 ,MANY HAVE EXPRESS$ CONC]N ?AT ,*9A OR ,RUSSIA >E ABLE TO LAUN* DEVA/AT+ 0CYB] ATTACKS0 AGA9/ ,WE/]N 9/ITUTIONS1 & ECONOMIC & F9ANCIAL 9FRA/RUCTURE4 ,BUT ONE ,*9ESE (FICIAL HAS REPORT$LY DISMISS$ ?IS OPTION1 PRIM>ILY ON ! GR\NDS ( ,*9A'S DEP5D5CE ON ,U4,S4 F9ANCIAL /ABILITY--,*9A [NS NE>LY A TRILLION DOLL>S' WOR? ( SECURITIZ$ ,AM]ICAN GOV]NM5T DEBT--A CYB] ATTACK ON ,WALL ,/REET W\LD H>M ,*9A AS MU* AS IT H>M$ ! ,U4,S4.<#a#b#c.> 

,!SE EXAMPLES SUGGE/ ?AT ! ANTIGLOBALIZ]S /ORM+ ! ,G#h-PROTECT+ RIOT POLICE >E PRECISELY WRONG4 

,9/EAD ( CONV5TIONAL !ORIES ( GOV]NM5T & 9T]NATIONAL RELATIONS1 WE NE$ A NEW SET ( TOOLS--& P]HAPS A DOSE ( HUMILITY TOO1 = A COMPLEX WORLD MAY DEFY ALL BUT A G5]AL UND]/&+ ( ITS 9H]5T & P]VASIVE UNPR$ICTABILITY & CONT+5CY4 ,9 FACT1 WE NE$ ! TOOLS ?AT 9T]PRET COMPLEX SY/EMS4 

,MALCOLM ,GLADWELL HAS POPUL>IZ$ ! CONCEPT ( ! 0TIPP+ PO9T10 ! IDEA FROM COMPLEXITY !ORY ?AT EV5 SMALL EV5TS MAY TRIGG] COMPLEX SY/EMS TO 0TIP0 OV] FROM ONE CONDITION 9TO ANO!R4 ,HI/ORIAN ,NIALL ,F]GUSON & O!RS HAVE BEGUN TO SUGGE/ ?AT EMPIRES1 SU* AS ! ,AM]ICAN 0EMPIRE10 >E COMPLEX SY/EMS & ?US MAY BE HI<LY VULN]ABLE TO \TSIDE EV5TS1 P]HAPS SEEM+LY M9OR1 OV] :I* !Y HAVE LITTLE OR NO CONTROL1 CAUS+ !IR D[NFALL4.<#a#b#d.>  ,9 F9ANCE1 ,NASSIM ,NI*OLAS ,TALEB HAS SUGGE/$ ?AT HI<LY AB]RATIONAL 0BLACK SWAN0 EV5TS1 HI!RTO REG>D$ AS EXTREMELY R>E1 >E 9 REALITY MU* MORE FREQU5T ?AN PR$ICT$1 & MOREOV] HAVE VA/LY MORE DRAMATIC CONSEQU5CES4 ,! ,MAY #ba 0FLA% CRA%0 ON ! ,D[ ,JONES SEEM$ TO PROVE HIS PO9T4 

,!RE IS1 !N1 A GR[+ REALIZATION ?AT HUMAN AFFAIRS MAKE UP 9 !IR TOTALITY A COMPLEX SY/EM4 ,COMPLEX SY/EMS %>E *>ACT]I/ICS :I* HAVE IMPORTANT BUT B>ELY NOT$ CONSEQU5CES = POLITICS4 

,COMPLEX SY/EMS >E NOT *AOTIC4 ,!Y >E NOT SIMPLE & ORD]$1 BUT NEI!R >E !Y AN UNCONTROLL$ MESS4 ,COMPLEX SY/EMS >E 9/EAD SOME?+ 09 BETWE510 AS ,PR(ESSOR ,SCOTT ,PAGE1 AN EXP]T ON COMPLEXITY1 HAS OBS]V$4.<#a#b#e.> 

,ANO!R *>ACT]I/IC IS P]HAPS ! MO/ TELL+1 & RECOLLECTS ! /ADIUM WAVE OR ! SUICIDE BOMB]4 ,! ACTIONS ( ONE 9DIVIDUAL MAY R$\ND 9 V]Y P[]FUL & CONSEQU5TIAL WAYS4 ,?IS 9SI<T IS A CONCLUSION COMPLETELY AT ODDS ) CONTEMPOR>Y NOTIONS ( ! RANK+ & P[] ( GOV]NM5T1 /ATE & 9DIVIDUAL4 ,! 9DIVIDUAL IS NOT P[]LESS1 NOT SUBORD9ATE2 9 FACT 9DIVIDUALS >E A POT5T AG5T ( LA/+ *ANGE 9 ! :OLE SY/EM4 

,IF 9DIVIDUALS BEG9 TO BEHAVE 9 ! WAY SUGGE/$ 9 ?IS BOOK--TO ACT !MSELVES TO PRODUCE DESIR$ POLITICAL RESULTS1 COOP]AT+ & NEGOTIAT+ DIRECTLY ) O!RS AFFECT$--!N A NEW DISP5SATION WILL EM]GE1 SOME?+ ?AT WE MAY NOT YET BE ABLE TO DESCRIBE4 ,?IS IS ! PH5OM5ON ( 0EM]G5CE10 A KEY *>ACT]I/IC ( COMPLEXITY3 ?AT FROM ! COMB9$ ACTIONS ( MANY AG5TS1 ACT+ ACCORD+ TO !IR [N MICROCOSMIC PREF]5CES & VALUES1 A NEW CONDITION MAY EM]GE FROM ! BOTTOM UP1 ALMO/ UNCONSCI\SLY1 & C]TA9LY )\T IMPOSITION BY GOV]NM5T1 GOD OR ANYONE ELSE4 

,9TELLECTUALLY1 WE UND]/& ?AT TURN+ A VA/ HET]OG5E\S ME% 9TO A *ESSBO>D ( DISCRETE PLAY]S IS TO DO SOME?+ 9H]5TLY R$UCTIVE1 OV]SIMPLIFY+ & ?US1 9 ITS WAY1 DECEPTIVE IF NOT D[NRI<T DI%ONE/4 ,IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE CR$IBLY TO CLAIM ?AT ANY AU?ORITY1 LIKE ANY HI/ORIAN1 CAN UND]/& ?IS HUGE PATT]N ( 9T]ACTION & CONNECTION4 ,!Y CANNOT KN[1 YET !Y MU/ CLAIM TO4 

,YET !RE IS SOME?+ /ILL MORE 9SIDI\S GO+ ON4 ,9 CLAIM+ AU?ORITY TO ORGANIZE \R AFFAIRS1 TO ORD] ! ,POLLACK-LIKE MELANGE 9TO SOME?+ ?AT IT ISN'T1 GOV]NM5TS TAKE AWAY SOME?+ MORE CRUCIAL FROM US--\R [N AG5CY4 ,OR RA!R1 !Y TAKE AWAY \R [N S5SE ( AG5CY1 = 9 TRU? \R CONTROL OV] EV5TS NEV] LEFT US1 ONLY \R BELIEF 9 ITS EXI/5CE4 

,CONTR>Y TO COMMON ASSUMPTIONS1 9DIVIDUALS ACT+ COLLECTIVELY HAVE A F> GREAT] P[] TO CONTROL !IR CIRCUM/ANCES1 & 9DE$ ?OSE ( ! :OLE WORLD1 ?AN GOV]NM5TS PRET5D4 ,! IMM$IATE OV]?R[ ( GOV]NM5TS N[ W\LD BR+ ONLY *AOS4 ,BUT AS 9DIVIDUALS & GR\PS BEG9 TO ASS]T !IR [N AG5CY OV] DECISIONS & EV5TS )9 !IR [N REA*1 !RE WILL EV5TUALLY EM]GE A MU* WID] & MORE FUNDAM5TAL EFFECT1 ONE ?AT W\LD ULTIMATELY AM\NT TO A REVOLUTION 9 H[ WE ORGANIZE \R AFFAIRS4 

,H[ ?IS MI<T LOOK IS 9H]5TLY UNPR$ICTABLE4 ,NO ONE CAN KN[ H[ ! SUM ( SU* DELIB]ATE ACTIONS MI<T APPE>4 ,?IS IS1 ABOVE ALL1 A CULTURAL *ANGE NOT AN >*ITECTURAL R$ESIGN ( POLITICAL /RUCTURES4 ,GU/AV ,L&AU]1 A N9ETE5?-C5TURY !ORI/1 ONCE WROTE3 

,! /ATE IS NOT SOME?+ :I* CAN BE DE/ROY$ BY A REVOLUTION1 BUT IS A CONDITION1 A C]TA9 RELATION%IP BETWE5 HUMAN BE+S1 A MODE ( HUMAN BEHAVIOR2 WE DE/ROY IT BY CONTRACT+ O!R RELATION%IPS1 BY BEHAV+ DIFF]5TLY4 

,IT WILL />T ) 9DIVIDUALS ACT+ UPON !IR CONVICTIONS4 ,IT WILL CONT9UE & GA!R =CE AS !Y JO9 TOGE!R--P]HAPS 9 P]SON1 P]HAPS ON ! ,WEB--TO ORGANIZE1 NOT TO CAMPAIGN1 BUT TO ACT & EMBODY ! *ANGES !Y SEEK4 ,!SE NETWORKS ( COOP]ATION MAY BE TEMPOR>Y2 !Y MAY BE LONG-LA/+4 ,!Y MAY 5COMPASS A /REET1 OR ! 9HABITANTS ( A BUILD+1 COOP]AT+ TO MANAGE !IR AFFAIRS4 ,!Y MAY SPAN ! GLOBE AS MILLIONS ACT TOGE!R TO ADDRESS A %>$ CONC]N4 ,! EMBRYONIC =MS ( SU* COOP]ATION >E ALREADY EVID5T3 ,!RE >E CONSUM]S COOP]ATIVES ?AT B>GA9 = L[] PRICES2 0COMMON SECURITY CLUBS0 :]E UNEMPLOY$ PEOPLE %>E JOB-SEEK+ SKILLS1 B>T] S]VICES & ORGANIZE %>$ *ILDC>E2.<#a#b#f.>  LOCAL GR\PS :]E UNEMPLOY$ H&YM5 & BABYSITT]S (F] !IR S]VICES TO ! COMMUNITY2.<#a#b#g.>  & ,9T]NET CAMPAIGNS ?AT 5ROLL MILLIONS ACROSS ! GLOBE4 

,AS ! REALIZATION ( GOV]NM5TS' DW9DL+ P[] SPREADS1 ?IS NEW =M ( POLITICS WILL BECOME LESS AB\T PROTE/ OR PETITION & MORE AB\T ACTION4 ,! SUM ( !SE COLLECTIVES WILL NOT HAVE A FIX$ /RUCTURE2 !Y WILL EBB & FL[1 RESPONSIVE TO ! *ANG+ NE$S & PASSIONS ( ! POPULATION4 ,!Y MAY BE LOCAL1 BUT !Y WILL ALSO TRANSC5D BORD]S1 9EVITABLY WEAK5+ ! M5TAL HOLD ( B\ND>IES & 9H]IT$ NATIONAL ID5TITIES UPON PEOPLES ) COMMON 9T]E/S4 ,ONE DAY1 SO /RONG MAY BE ?IS NEW CULTURE ( COLLECTIVE COLLABORATION1 & ?IS ME% ( DIFF]5T NETWORKS ( COOP]ATION1 ?AT \R EXI/+ 9/ITUTIONS1 BAS$ ON ! S+UL>IZ+1 C5TRALIZ+ UNIT ( NATIONAL GOV]NM5T1 & 9DE$ ! NOTION ( ! NATION /ATE1 MAY WI!R AWAY1 UNNE$$1 \TDAT$1 IRRELEVANT4 

,?IS ME% ( NETWORKS1 ( COLLABORAT+ GR\PS BO? LOCAL & TRANSNATIONAL1 REPRES5TS 9 ITS 9DEF9ITE %APES ITS DYNAMIC *ANG+ NATURE & ITS RESPONSIV5ESS TO ! NE$S ( ITS P>TICIPANTS--US1 ORD9>Y PEOPLE--A =M MU* CLOS] TO ! ACTUAL NATURE ( ! WORLD TODAY1 ITS DIV]SE & MASSIVE FL[S1 ! MULTIPLY+ & %IFT+ ID5TITIES ( ITS PEOPLES1 & ABOVE ALL ITS MANIFOLD *ALL5GES4 ,& 9 ITS CONSONANCE ) ! NATURE ( ! WORLD1 ?AT ME%1 ?AT %APE--9DET]M9ATE1 UN/RUCTUR$1 *ANG+ ?\< IT MAY BE--(F]S P>ADOXICALLY MU* GREAT] /ABILITY & COH]5CE ?AN ! FIX$ & HI]>*ICAL =MS ( ORGANIZATION WE HAVE 9H]IT$ FROM ! PA/4 ,! WORLD %\LD BE ORD]$ ACCORD+ TO \R NE$S1 NOT ! PROJECTIONS & REQUIREM5TS ( /ATIC 9/ITUTIONS4 

,! FUTURE NATURE ( ?IS WORLD CANNOT BE =ESE52 IT WILL EM]GE4 ,BUT ONE ?+ IS SURE4 ,NO LONG] W\LD WE BE FOOL$ 9TO SEE+ ! WORLD AS A *ESSBO>D1 DEM>CAT$1 SEP>AT$1 NEAT1 BUT 9/EAD IT W\LD SEEM TO US AS IT REALLY IS4 

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,FEBRU>Y #a#d1 #bba 3 ,*APT] #f -- ,ADD$4 

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