,! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ 9 ,FLAMES 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,*RI/OPH] ,Z4 ,HOBSON 

,TEXT 3 

,TWO WEEKS AFT] ,EGYPT'S REVOLUTION1 ! FIRE/ORM ( PEOPLE'S UPRIS+S ?AT IS TRANS=M+ ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ CONT9UES1 & YET ! RUL+ ELITES >E REASS]T+ !MSELVES1 ?REAT5+ TO DE/ROY EV]Y?+ ! PEOPLE HAVE SUFF]$ & SACRIFIC$ =4 ,P>T ( ! MORTAL DANG] TO ! /ILL-BRI<T REBELLIONS COMES FROM !SE ELITES1 P>T FROM ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES1 & P>T FROM ! CLASS NATURE ( ! REBELLIONS !MSELVES4 ,?AT IS A BITT] PILL TO SWALL[1 BUT IT IS ! TRU?4 

,LIBYA1 ,YEM51 ,BAHRA9 

  

,= ! LA/ T5 DAYS AS ,I WRITE ON ,FEB4 #b#g1 ! /RUGGLE 9 ,LIBYA HAS TAK5 C5T] /AGE4 ,AN >M$ REBELLION AGA9/ ,MUAMM> AL-,QADDAFI ?AT BEGAN 9 ! ANTI-,QADDAFI EA/]N CITY ( ,B5<AZI HAS TAK5 OV] MU* ( ! C\NTRY4 ,MANY ( ! M9I/]S 9 ,QADDAFI'S GOV]NM5T & MANY UNITS 9 HIS >MY HAVE GONE OV] TO ! REBELS4 ,QADDAFI HAS HELD ON 9 ! WE/]N CAPITAL1 ,TRIPOLI1 BY F> ! L>GE/ CITY 9 ,LIBYA1 :]E HIS TROOPS & >M$ ?UGS HAVE MURD]$ HUNDR$S ( UN>M$ DEMON/RATORS & >E TRY+ TO C\NT]ATTACK AGA9/ NE>BY CITIES4 ,IT'S TOO E>LY TO KN[ H[ ?IS LIFE & DEA? /RUGGLE WILL TURN \T4 

,ELSE:]E ! RE=M /RUGGLES HAVE GA9$ H>D-WON YET DECEPTIVE E>LY GA9S4 ,9 ,YEM5 TWO WEEKS ( SEESAW+ PROTE/S L$ TO A PL$GE BY ,PRESID5T ,ALI ,ABDULLAH ,SALEH NOT TO USE =CE AGA9/ PEACEFUL DEMON/RATORS4 ,& 9 ,BAHRA91 AFT] BLOODY ATTACKS AGA9/ E>LI] M>*ES1 9T5SE PRESSURE BY ! ,OBAMA ADM9I/RATION L$ ! GOV]NM5T TO )DRAW ITS =CES FROM ! CAPITAL'S C5TRAL >EAS1 :]E AN E/IMAT$ #b1 DEMON/RATORS--AB\T A SIX? ( ! :OLE POPULATION ( ?IS T9Y K+DOM-->E N[ CAMP$ \T4 ,! MOVEM5T 9 ,BAHRA9 IS BAS$ MA9LY ON ! ,%I'A MAJORITY1 #g P]C5T ( ! POPULATION ?AT IS ALMO/ 5TIRELY EXCLUD$ FROM GOOD JOBS & POLITICAL LIFE4 ,IT IS DEM&+ DISSOLUTION ( ! GOV]NM5T1 A NONSECT>IAN /ATE1 & OP5 ELECTIONS4 

,ALG]IA1 ,SYRIA1 ,IRAN 

  

,9 !SE C\NTRIES BRUTAL POLICE & P>AMILIT>Y CRACKD[NS HAVE CRU%$ PROTE/S = ! MOM5T4 

,EGYPT 

  

,F9ALLY1 9 ,EGYPT1 TWO WEEKS AFT] ,MUB>AK'S EXIT1 ! G5]ALS :O PU%$ HIM \T & :OM ! PROTE/ LEAD]S MI/AK5LY TRU/$ >E ASS]T+ CONTROL MORE OP5LY4 ,ON ,FRIDAY1 ,FEB4 #a#h1 ! FIR/ ,FRIDAY S9CE ! *ANGEOV]1 MORE ?AN A MILLION PEOPLE FILL$ ,CAIRO'S ,TAHRIR ,SQU>E 9 A RALLY L>GELY CONTROLL$ BY ! ,MUSLIM ,BRO!RHOOD4 ,BRO!RHOOD LEAD]S & A LONG-EXIL$ ,SUNNI RELIGI\S LEAD]1 ,%EIKH ,YUSUF AL-,Q>ADAWI1 MADE V]Y RADICAL SPEE*ES CALL+ = IMM$IATELY LIFT+ ! PREV5TIVE DET5TION LAW1 FREE+ POLITICAL PRISON]S1 & TOPPL+ ! GOV]NM5T ( ,AHM$ ,%AFIQ1 ! PRIME M9I/] ,MUB>AK APPO9T$ DAYS BE=E HIS OV]?R[4 ,AT ! SAME TIME !SE SPEAK]S PRAIS$ ! RUL+ ,SUPREME ,C\NCIL ( ! ,>M$ ,=CES & FAIL$ TO DEF5D ! WORK]S' /RIKES ?AT >E N[ A MA9 HOPE ( ,EGYPT'S REVOLUTION4 ,& SECURITY M5 KEPT SEV]AL W\LD-BE SPEAK]S (F ! PLAT=M1 REPORT$LY 9CLUD+ ,WAEL ,<ONIM1 ! ,GOOGLE M>KET+ EXECUTIVE :O PLAY$ A ROLE 9 ! UPRIS+4 

,F\R DAYS LAT] ! ,APRIL #f ,Y\? ,MOVEM5T1 ONE ( ! E>LIE/ OPPOSITION =CES1 CALL$ = A NEW DEMON/RATION ON ,FRIDAY ! #b#e?1 DEM&+ DISMISSAL ( ,%AFIQ'S GOV]NM5T1 AN 5D TO ! DET5TION LAW1 0ABOLITION ( ! /ATE SECURITY APP>ATUS10 & 0A NEW TE*NOCRATIC GOV]NM5T10 BUT REMA9+ SIL5T ON ! /RIKES4 ,FAIRLY OBVI\SLY ?IS WAS A MOVE BY ?OSE SIDEL9$ ON ,FEB4 #ah TO ASS]T !IR [N 9FLU5CE4 ,/UPIDLY1 ! CALL =EW>N$ ! AU?ORITIES ?AT ! DEMON/RATORS W\LD SIT 9 AT ,TAHRIR ,SQU>E 0UNTIL ! IMPLEM5TATION ( \R DEM&S40 ,! DEMON/RATION1 L>GE BUT MU* SMALL] ?AN ! E>LI] ONE1 W5T (F PEACEFULLY4 ,BUT AFT] MIDNI<T SOLDI]S & SECURITY POLICE CLE>$ ! SQU>E1 TE>+ D[N T5TS & BEAT+ PROTE/]S4 ,?IS R\ND TO ! RUL+ G5]ALS4 

,! MILIT>Y DICTATOR%IP HASN'T YET D>$ MOVE AGA9/ ! /RIKE MOVEM5TS ?AT HAVE BROK5 \T AMONG TEXTILE1 PH>MACEUTICAL1 & *EMICAL WORK]S1 TRANSIT & AMBULANCE WORK]S1 BANK & AIRPORT EMPLOYES1 ELECTRICAL 5G9E]S1 WORK]S = ! ,SUEZ ,CANAL ,AU?ORITY1 & O!RS4 ,IT HAS ALSO BECOME ALMO/ IMPOSSIBLE TO F9D UP TO DATE REPORTS ON !SE /RIKES 9 ! NEWS M$IA1 SO IT ISN'T CLE> IF SOME /RIKES HAVE BE5 SETTL$1 HAVE FIZZL$1 OR HAVE BE5 SUPPRESS$4 ,BUT !RE IS GR[+ DANG] ( A MILIT>Y CRACKD[N ON ! REMA9+ /RIKES4 

,EGYPT'S REVOLUTION IS N[ 9 MORTAL DANG] FROM ! >MY IT LEFT 9 COMM& & :I* MANY ACTIVI/S MI/AK5LY TRU/$1 AS WELL AS FROM ! OPPORTUNISM ( ! ,BRO!RHOOD :I* PREV5T$ O!RS FROM SPEAK+ AT ! ,FEB4 #ah RALLY & ! %ORTSI<T$NESS & CLASS PREJUDICES ( ! MIDDLE-CLASS LEAD]S :O BELIEV$ !Y C\LD NEGOTIATE ) ! G5]ALS & A*IEVE DEMOCRACY )\T ! WORK]S & POOR4 

,:AT ,IS ,NE$$ 

  

,IT ISN'T CLE> H[ !SE SITUATIONS 9 SEV]AL C\NTRIES WILL DEVELOP4 ,IT IS A BIT CLE>] :AT IS NE$$1 BUT NOT :E!R !RE >E ACTIVI/S :O SEE :AT IS NE$$ & CAN ORGANIZE = IT4  

,DON'T ,TRU/ ! ,>MY4 ,EGYPT'S EV5TS %[ ?AT ! >MIES >E NEV] ON ! PEOPLE'S SIDE4 ,TO A*IEVE REAL *ANGE IT'S NECESS>Y TO CALL ! NEW REGIME :AT IT IS1 A MILIT>Y DICTATOR%IP1 & TO WORK TO W9 ! COMMON SOLDI]S AWAY FROM !IR (FIC]S1 9CLUD+ BUILD+ ORGANIZATIONS 9SIDE ! >M$ =CES4 ,FACTORY1 NEI<BORHOOD1 & CIVIC ORGANIZATIONS HAVE TO PRESS ! COMMON SOLDI]S TO REFUSE ORD]S TO ATTACK DEMON/RATORS & /RIK]S4 ,9 ,LIBYA1 :]E L>GE P>TS ( ! >MY >E N[ FI<T+ AGA9/ ,QADDAFI1 !SE >MY (FIC]S N[ LOOK LIKE H]OES BUT CAN & WILL PLAY ! SAME TREA*]\S ROLE AS ,EGYPT'S G5]ALS 9 CASE ( A VICTORY4 ,!RE TOO :ILE WORK+ TOGE!R AGA9/ ,QADDAFI PEOPLE HAVE TO TRY TO W9 ! LOYALTY ( ! COMMON SOLDI]S4  

,DON'T ,TRU/ ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES4 ,9 A 0NEWS ANALYSIS10 ! ,NEW ,YORK ,TIMES WRITES3 0,UNLIKE NEI<BOR+ ,EGYPT & ,TUNISIA1 ,LIBYA LACKS ! /EADY+ H& ( A MILIT>Y TO BUTTRESS A COLLAPS+ GOV]NM5T40 ,?AT'S EXACTLY ! ATTITUDE ( ! ,U4,S4 GOV]NM5T TO MILIT>Y RULE4 ,! ,U4,S4 HAS TIES ) ! >MY 9 EV]Y DICTATOR%IP :]E ! PEOPLE >E N[ ORGANIZ+ & REBELL+4 ,MO/ ( ! HI<] (FIC]S W]E TRA9$ 9 ! ,U4,S4 ,AM]ICAN G5]ALS AS WELL AS ! ,DEF5SE ,SECRET>Y1 ,ROB]T ,GATES1 W]E TALK+ TO ,EGYPT'S G5]ALS ALL ?R\< ! /RUGGLE AGA9/ ,MUB>AK4 ,! >MIES >E ALWAYS ! ,U4,S4'S GU>ANTEE ( CONT9U$ CONTROL 9 CASE ! DICTATORS IT BACKS %\LD FALL4 ,MORE SPECIFICALLY1 ,OBAMA & HIS REPRES5TATIVES >E WORK+ BEH9D ! SC5ES 9 ,YEM51 ,BAHRA91 & ,EGYPT TO MAKE SURE ?AT :ATEV] *ANGE HAPP5S WILL BE AS LIMIT$ & MOD]ATE AS POSSIBLE4 ,!IR GOAL IS TO MAKE SURE ! POPUL> MOVEM5TS DIE D[N & 0/ABLE0--MOD]ATELY REPRESSIVE--PRO-,U4,S4 REGIMES TAKE P[]4 ,ABOVE ALL ! ,U4,S4 HAS NO 9T5TIONS ( SUPPORT+ OR ALL[+ REAL *ANGES 9 ! ECONOMIC SY/EMS1 :I* W\LD ?REAT5 ITS [N 9T]E/S4  

,FI<T = ,FULL ,FRE$OM4 ,?IS MEANS FRE$OM = ALL POLITICAL1 SOCIAL1 RELIGI\S1 & WORK]S' ORGANIZATIONS1 FREE SPEE*1 & UNRE/RICT$ ACCESS TO ! M$IA4 ,NO C5SOR%IP4 ,RELEASE ALL POLITICAL PRISON]S4 ,OP5 ! FILES ( ! ,9T]IOR ,M9I/RIES & POLICE & RELEASE ALL :O W]E IMPRISON$ UNJU/LY4 ,COMP5SATE ! VICTIMS OR !IR SURVIVORS4  

,ALLY ) ! ,WORK]S1 ,BUILD = A ,G5]AL ,/RIKE4 ,IT IS NOT TOO LATE 9 ,EGYPT--& NOT TOO E>LY ELSE:]E--TO SUPPORT ! WORK]S 9 !IR JU/ DEM&S4 ,! WORK]S1 ! UNEMPLOY$1 V5DORS & F>M]S WANT JOBS OR ! OPPORTUNITY TO SELL !IR S]VICES & CROPS1 A /EADY 9COME1 DEC5T H\S+1 PUBLIC SANITATION & TRANSPORTATION1 OPPORTUNITIES = !IR *ILDR5 TO GET FUR!R 9 ! WORLD--! B>E M9IMUM TO BR+ HOPE 9 LIFE4 ,!SE DEM&S MEAN ! POSSIBILITY ( REVOLUTIONS ?AT DON'T JU/ BR+ LIMIT$ DEMOCRATIC RI<TS = ! MIDDLE CLASS1 BUT SOCIAL JU/ICE = ALL4 ,WORK]S MU/ MOVE =W>D 9 ! FACE ( ?REAT5$ REPRESSION6 ,WID5 ! /RIKE MOVEM5T1 TAKE CONTROL ( ! WORKPLACES & MEANS ( COMMUNICATION1 BUILD = A G5]AL /RIKE4 ,SPREAD+ ! /RIKES CAN BO? ADVANCE ! WORK]S' CAUSE & HALT ! G5]ALS' ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE CONTROL4  

,ORGANIZE ,EV]Y:]E4 ,GIANT RALLIES 9 ,TAHRIR ,SQU>E OR N[ 9 ,BAHRA9'S CAPITAL CAN BR+ PRESSURE ON ! AU?ORITIES BUT !Y CAN'T GO ON = WEEKS OR MON?S & !Y CAN'T TAKE ! PLACE ( REAL1 CONT9U+ CIVIC ASSOCIATIONS1 WORKPLACE C\NCILS1 & NEI<BORHOOD1 T[N1 & VILLAGE ASSEMBLIES4  

,AN>*I/S & ,LIB]T>IAN ,SOCIALI/S %\LD ORGANIZE1 COOP]ATE TACTICALLY1 & TAKE /EPS T[>D F$]AT+ OR UNIFY+4  

,ELECT A ,CON/ITU5T ,ASSEMBLY TO ,DECIDE ! ,POLITICAL ,SY/EM4 ,?IS DEM& IS NECESS>Y NOT ONLY = ,EGYPT--:]E ! G5]ALS MAY OR MAY NOT FOLL[ ?R\< ON ! V]Y LIMIT$ REVISIONS 9 ! ,CON/ITUTION !Y HAVE M5TION$--BUT = O!R C\NTRIES AS WELL4 ,9 ,LIBYA IF ,QADDAFI IS DEFEAT$ ! IMM$IATE TRANSITION REGIME WILL BE COMPOS$ ( DEFECTORS FROM HIS GOV]NM5T & >MY1 PLUS SOME OPPOSITION LEAD]S4 ,:AT IS NE$$ IS AN ASSEMBLY ELECT$ BY ! PEOPLE 9 OP51 FAIR ELECTIONS TO DECIDE ! C\NTRY'S =M ( GOV]NM5T4  

,=M A ,NATIONAL ,PEOPLE'S ,CONGRESS TO IMPLEM5T !SE DEM&S & RESI/ ! G5]ALS4  
  

,ALL !SE DEM&S >E POSSIBLE4 ,9 ,EGYPT ! MOVEM5T HAS LO/ A GOOD DEAL ( MOM5TUM TO ! G5]ALS4 ,IT IS NOT TOO LATE TO REGA9 IT1 BUT TIME IS %ORT4 ,9 SEV]AL O!R C\NTRIES ! MOVEM5TS >E /ILL ON ! UPSW+4 ,! PEOPLE HAVE %[N !Y CAN FI<T1 BE> WITNESS1 & :5 NECESS>Y DIE TO OV]?R[ UNJU/ GOV]NM5TS1 & HAVE %[N !Y CAN W9 AGA9/ !M4 ,N[ ! QUE/ION IS :E!R !Y CAN ORGANIZE TO W9 A JU/ SOCIETY4 

7,S\RCE3 WEB4>*IVE4ORG47 

,FROM 3 ,!,AN>*I/,LIBR>Y4ORG4 

,*RONOLOGY 3 
,JANU>Y #a#g1 #bbb 3 ,! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ 9 ,FLAMES -- ,ADD$4 

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