,! ,SWORD1 ! ,SPONGE & ! ,P>ADOX ( ,P]=MATIVITY 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,DAVID ,GRAEB] 

,TEXT 3 

,AB/RACT 

,T]MS SU* AS 'FATE' & 'LUCK' >E WAYS ( TALK+ AB\T ! AMBIGUITIES & ANT9OMIES ( TEMPORAL EXI/5CE ?AT ALL HUMANS1 EV5 SOCIAL !ORI/S1 HAVE TO CONFRONT 9 ONE =M OR ANO!R4 ,CONCEPTS ?AT 9CLUDE MANA1 S'AKTI1 B>AKA1 & OR5DA MI<T BE/ BE CONSID]$ AS GRAPPL+ ) ! EXACT SAME P>ADOXES4 ,NOR %\LD WE ASSUME ?AT SOCIAL SCI5TIFIC APPROA*ES >E NECESS>ILY MORE SOPHI/ICAT$4 ,CURR5T DISC\RSE ON 'P]=MATIVITY'1 = 9/ANCE1 SEEMS 9 C]TA9 WAYS RA!R CRUDE :5 COMP>$ TO ! ,MALAGASY CONCEPT ( HAS9A 7USUALLY TRANS- LAT$ AS 'SACR$ P[]'71 :I* TAKES ON ! SAME DILEMMA--:AT ,I CALL ! 'P>ADOX ( P]=MATIVITY'--9 A F> MORE NUANC$ WAY4 

,KEYWORDS 

BUBBLES1 FATE1 LUCK1 ,MADAGASC>1 MAGIC1 P]=MATIVITY1 SOCIAL !ORI/S1 TE*NOLOGIES 

,?IS IS AN ESSAY AB\T :AT IT MEANS ?AT HUMANS LIVE 9 HI/ORY1 9 A SITUA- TION :]E ! FUTURE CANNOT BE KN[N & ! PA/ CANNOT BE *ANG$ &1 !RE=E1 :]E ! UNPR$ICTABLE IS CON/ANTLY TURN+ 9TO ! IRREV]SIBLE4 ,TO LIVE ?IS WAY IS SIMPLY AN ASPECT ( ! HUMAN CONDITION2 IT IS A SITUATION ?AT EV]YONE HAS TO GRAPPLE ) 9 ONE WAY OR ANO!R1 9CLUD+ SOCIAL SCI5TI/S & ! PEOPLE :OM !Y /UDY4 

,IT IS TRUE ?AT SOCIAL SCI5TI/S (T5 HAVE A T5D5CY TO WRITE AS IF !Y HAVE SOMEH[ TRANSC5D$ ?IS SITUATION1 = 9/ANCE1 DESCRIB+ EV5TS ?AT HAVE ALREADY OCCURR$ AS IF !Y C\LD HAVE BE5 PR$ICT$ BE=EH&4 ,BUT :5 IT COMES TO ACTUALLY =ETELL+ EV5TS1 SOCIAL SCI5TI/S >E R>ELY MU* BETT] ?AN ANYBODY ELSE4 ,?IS CREATES 5DLESS QU&>IES & DILEMMAS1 & YET EV]Y SOCIAL SY/EM HAS TO WRE/LE ) !SE DIFFICULTIES 9 ONE WAY OR ANO!R4 ,9 FACT1 IT SEEMS TO ME ?AT AS A RESULT !RE IS A PR(\ND--IF (T5 UNNOTIC$-- /RUCTURAL SIMIL>ITY BETWE5 MANY ( ! MORE EXOTIC-SEEM+ CON/RUCTS FAMILI> TO AN?ROPOLOGY 7E4G41 MANA1 S'AKTI1 B>AKA1 MAGIC1 FATE1 WIT*CRAFT7 & CONCEPTS SU* AS LUCK1 *ANCE1 & /ATI/ICAL PROBABILITY1 :I* AN?RO- POLOGI/S EMPLOY 9 !IR EV]YDAY LIVES1 AS WELL AS O!R !ORETICAL CON/RUCTS ?AT MI<T APPE> TO BE ! MO/ SOPHI/ICAT$4 ,ONE REASON ?AT ?IS /RUCTURAL SIMIL>ITY IS SO LITTLE NOTIC$1 ,I W\LD >GUE1 IS ?AT MANY ( !SE !ORETICAL CON/RUCTS HAVE PROV$ REM>KABLY ONE-DIM5SIONAL1 RELY+ OV]:ELM+LY ON ONE CONCEPT--P]=MATIVITY4 ,?IS EFFECTIVELY R$UCES ALMO/ ALL =MS ( HUMAN ACTION & ?\<T TO POLITICS &1 9 DO+ SO1 HAS ! EFFECT ( PAP]- + OV] EXACTLY ! MO/ TR\BL+ ELEM5TS ( ?OSE DILEMMAS BORN ( ! LIMITS ( HUMAN KN[L$GE4 ,AS A RESULT1 !SE CON/RUCTS >E 9 MANY WAYS NOT NE>LY AS SOPHI/ICAT$ AS ! CONCEPTS ?AT WE >E ANALYZ+4 

,OBVI\SLY1 NOT EV]Y?+ ?AT HAPP5S TO US COMES AS A SURPRISE4 ,MU* IS PRE- DICTABLE 5\<1 BUT :AT WE CANNOT HAVE IS C]TA9TY4 ,& EV5 :5 !RE IS NO D\BT ?AT AN EV5T WILL DEF9ITELY OCCUR 7WE WILL DIE1 ! EMPIRE WILL FALL1 ! BUBBLE WILL BUR/71 WE /ILL CANNOT BE ABSOLUTELY C]TA9 AS TO :54 ,9DE$1 IT IS ! V]Y UNC]TA9TY ?AT SURR\NDS EV5TS ?AT ALL[S US TO CLASSIFY !M AS SU* 9 ! FIR/ PLACE4 ,SUNRISE IS NOT AN 'EV5T' BECAUSE WE ACTUALLY DO KN[ PRECISELY :5 IT WILL HAPP54 

,:AT IS REALLY REM>KABLE1 ?\<1 AB\T ! POSITION ( SOCIAL SCI5TI/S IS ?AT !Y PROVE TO BE NO BETT] ?AN ANYONE ELSE AT PR$ICT+ MAJOR HI/ORICAL EV5TS &1 9 C]TA9 CIRCUM/ANCES1 >E ACTUALLY CONSID]ABLY WORSE4 ,REC5T HI/ORY PROVIDES A P>TICUL>LY DRAMATIC EXAMPLE3 ! H\S+ BUBBLE & F9AN- CIAL CRA% ( ,SEPTEMB] #b#h4 ,IT /RIKES ME ?AT WE HAVE NOT YET REALLY TAK5 9TO ACC\NT ! FULL IMPLICATIONS ( ACADEMIA'S POSITION 9 RELATION TO :AT HAP- P5$ 9 ! YE>S LEAD+ UP TO ! CRA%4 ,GRANT$1 ECONOMI/S COME (F WOR/ ( ALL4 ,IT IS (T5 REM>K$ ?AT1 DESPITE NUM]\S 9DICATIONS ( A ,U,S H\S+ BUBBLE1 VIRTUALLY NO PR(ESSIONAL ECONOMI/ PR$ICT$ ?AT ! BUBBLE W\LD BUR/1 LET ALONE ?AT ! SECURITIZATION ( H\S+ DEBT PREMIS$ ON ECONOMIC MODELS ?AT PRESUM$ ?AT H\S+ PRICES W\LD CONT9UE TO RISE =EV] W\LD LEAD TO GLOBAL F9ANCIAL MELTD[N ONCE H\S+ PRICES DID1 9EVITABLY1 BEG9 TO FALL4 ,9 RETROSPECT1 ?IS SEEMS %OCK+ 5\<4 ,! SIGNS W]E ALL !RE4 ,BUT ! SC&AL IS BY NO MEANS LIMIT$ TO ECONOMI/S4 ,9 MANY WAYS1 IT SEEMS TO ME1 ALMO/ EV]YONE 9 RESPECTABLE ACADEMIA1 & EV5 MANY ( ?OSE :O ?\<T ( !MSELVES AS RADICALS1 APPE>S TO HAVE BE5 DRAWN 9TO :AT N[ CAN ONLY BE DESCRIB$ AS A COLLECTION ( SURPRIS+LY TRANSP>5T CONFID5CE GAMES4 

,! REASON PR(ESSIONAL ECONOMI/S DID NOT SEE ! BUBBLE IS NOT H>D TO DISC]N3 !Y W]E EFFECTIVELY BE+ PAID TO CREATE & MA9TA9 IT4 ,TO BE MORE PRECISE1 MANY W]E1 LIKE ! TRAD]S :O EMPLOY$ !M1 DIRECTLY OR 9DIRECTLY1 QUITE AW>E ?AT MONEY C\LD NOT BE PRODUC$ 9DEF9ITELY SIMPLY BY SAY+ ?AT IT WAS !RE1 BUT !Y HAD EV]Y REASON NOT TO PO9T ?IS \T TO ANYONE \TSIDE ! DISCIPL9E4 ,!Y W]E1 EFFECTIVELY1 5ME%$ 9 A L>G] POLITICAL & PR(ESSIONAL CONTEXT 9 :I* !IR ROLE WAS NOT PRIM>ILY DESCRIPTIVE BUT RA!R P]=MATIVE4 ,!IR RESPONSIBILITY WAS TO DEF5D ! 9TEGRITY ( EXI/+ 9/I- TUTIONS BY >GU+ ?AT1 H[EV] PRICES /OOD1 !Y W]E ! PRODUCTS ( '! M>KET' & !RE=E1 BY DEF9ITION1 W]E ACCURATE 9DICATORS ( ! VALUE ( COMMODITIES1 & ?AT CONT9U$ 9VE/M5T W\LD ?US CONT9UE TO BE> FRUIT4 ,TO MAKE OV]LY PESSIMI/IC PUBLIC PRON\NCEM5TS ( ANY SORT WAS1 & /ILL IS1 REF]R$ TO AS 'TALK+ D[N ! M>KET'--A FUNDAM5TAL VIOLATION ( ONE'S RESPONSIBILITY TO ! V]Y SET ( 9/ITUTIONAL >RANGEM5TS ?AT GU>ANTEE ONE'S LIVELIHOOD4 ,TO SAY ?AT ! GLOBAL ECONOMY WAS 9CREAS+LY F\ND$ ON A S]IES ( %ELL GAMES W\LD BE SIMPLY UN?9KABLE4 

,SOME C]TA9LY DID SEE IT COM+ & W]E NOT AFRAID TO SAY SO4 ,KEYNESIANS LIKE ,DEAN ,BAK] 7#b#b7 & SOCIOLOGI/-HI/ORIANS LIKE ,IMMANUEL ,WALL]/E9 7#b#c7 HAD BE5 >GU+ = YE>S ?AT ! #a#i#iS TE* COLLAPSE W\LD 9EVITA- BLY BE FOLL[$ BY ! COLLAPSE ( ! H\S+ BUBBLE & !N1 F9ALLY1 ?AT ( ! DOLL> BUBBLE1 ) SEV]E CONSEQU5CES = ! ,U,S & ITS POSITION 9 ! WORLD4 ,!Y W]E ABLE TO DO SO PRECISELY BECAUSE !Y HAD NO PR(ESSIONAL ALLEGIANCE TO ! SY/EM4 ,( C\RSE1 A CYNIC W\LD PROBABLY REM>K ?AT JU/ AS PR(ESSIONAL ECONOMI/S HAVE A P]=MATIVE ROLE TO PLAY 9 CREAT+ BUBBLES1 9 COM+ UP ) >GUM5TS AS TO :Y :ATEV] ECONOMIC SITUATION PREVAILS AT ! MOM5T IS BO? MORALLY JU/ & PRACTICALLY SU/A9ABLE1 O!RS--,M>XI/S >E AN (T-CIT$ EXAMPLE--HAVE AN EQUAL & OBVI\S 9T]E/ 9 DO+ ! OPPOSITE 7H5CE ! OLD JOKE AB\T ! ,M>XI/ ECONOMI/ :O PR$ICT$ #ag ( ! LA/ #c RECESSIONS & ?REE ( ! LA/ Z]O T]M9AL CRISES ( CAPITALISM74 ,BUT ?IS IS P]HAPS JU/ ANO!R WAY ( SAY+ ?AT :5 S*OL>S ADDRESS !MSELVES TO ! FUTURE1 9S(> AS !Y >E NOT SIMPLY /AT+ ! OBVI\S OR MAK+ R&OM /ABS 9 ! D>K1 !Y WILL ALWAYS1 ( NECESSITY1 BE HOP+ TO PLAY SOME ROLE 9 %AP+ ! OBJECT ( !IR O/5SIBLE ANALYSIS4 ,P>TICUL>LY 9 ! CASE ( ECONOMI/S1 IT IS H>D TO IMAG9E ?AT IT C\LD BE ANY O!R WAY4 

,ON ,!ORETICAL ,BUBBLES & ! ,P>ADOX ( ,P]=MATIVITY 

,! NOTION ?AT ECONOMI/S PLAY A P]=MATIVE ROLE 9 CREAT+ ! M>KETS ?AT !Y CLAIM TO DESCRIBE IS NO?+ NEW4 ,9 FACT1 EV] S9CE ,MI*EL ,CALLON'S 7#a#i#i#h7 ANN\NCEM5T TO ?IS EFFECT1 ! 'P]=MATIVITY ( ECONOMICS' HAS BE5 SOME- ?+ ( A !ORETICAL BOOM 9DU/RY 7SEE1 E4G41 ,AITK5 #b#g2 ,HOLM #b#c2 ,MAC,K- 5ZIE #b#d2 ,MAC,K5ZIE1 ,MUNIESA1 & ,SIU #b#g2 ,MILL] #b#b74 ,SO IT IS NOT ?AT S*OL>S W]E UNAW>E ( ! EXI/5CE ( SU* P]=MATIVE GE/URES4 ,IT IS MORE ?AT !Y HAD BECOME SO ATTA*$ TO !M1 & SO 9 AWE ( !IR P[]1 ?AT !Y C\LD NO LONG] IMAG9E ANY LIMITS TO !M4 ,?IS REMA9$ TRUE AS HI< F9ANCE BEGAN TO BECOME A WORLD ( COLLAT]ALIZ$ DEBT OBLIGATIONS & CR$IT DEFAULT SWAPS1 ONE ?AT SAW ! EM]G5CE ( A GLOBAL '%AD[ ECONOMY' ( SOME @s#a#b TRILLION BAS$ ON MANIPULAT+ MONEY ?AT HAD BE5 ESS5TIALLY :ISK$ 9TO EXI/5CE BY SAY+ ?AT IT WAS !RE & :]E SPECULATION 9CREAS+LY CAME TO MEAN TAK+ BETS ON H[ LONG IT W\LD TAKE = 9VE/ORS TO FIGURE \T ?AT IT REALLY WAS NOT !RE4 ,IT WAS A WORLD 9 :I* P]=MATIVE GE/URES W]E BECOM+ 9CREAS+LY 9DI/+UI%ABLE FROM :AT ! MORE TRADITIONAL POPUL> ECONOMIC P>LANCE REF]S TO AS 'SCAMS'4 ,A BUBBLE IS1 AFT] ALL1 BY DEF9ITION A SITUATION 9 :I* A C]TA9 TYPE ( COMMODITY 7L&1 /OCKS1 TULIPS1 PETROLEUM7 BECOMES WILDLY OV]VALU$ AS A CONSEQU5CE ( SPECULATION4 ,ECONOMI/S AT LEA/ RECOGNIZ$ ! POSSIBILITY ( SPECULATIVE BUBBLES1 EV5 IF !Y USUALLY FELT A PRO- FESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY NOT TO ID5TIFY !M :ILE !Y W]E HAPP5+4 

,9CREAS+LY1 DUR+ ! P]IOD ( R\<LY #a#i#h-#b#h1 SOCIAL !ORI/S CAME TO EMBRACE ! NOTION ( P]=MATIVITY SO COMPLETELY ?AT ! V]Y IDEA ( A BUBBLE CAME TO SEEM A CONTRADICTION 9 T]MS4 ,AFT] ALL1 IF VALUE IS SIMPLY A P]=MANCE1 IF IT IS JU/ :ATEV] PEOPLE ?9K IT IS1 !N OBVI\SLY !RE CAN BE NO BUBBLES1 S9CE !RE IS NO BASIS ON :I* ONE CAN SAY ?AT A C]TA9 /OCK OR PLOT ( L& IS OV]VALU$4 ,BY ?IS LOGIC1 IF BUBBLES DO BUR/1 IT CAN ONLY BE BECAUSE ECONOMIC ACTORS DO NOT ACCEPT ?AT ?IS IS ! CASE1 ALL ! :ILE /UBBORNLY 9SI/+ ?AT 'M>KET FUNDAM5TALS' & EV5 A 'REAL ECONOMY' ACTUALLY DO EXI/4.<#a.> 

,! P]IOD 9 QUE/ION CORRESPONDS TO ?AT ( ! F9ANCIALIZATION ( WORLD CAPITALISM1 :5 ! AM\NT ( MONEY PLAC$ GLOBALLY 9 SPECULATIVE M>KETS QUICKLY CAME TO DW>F ?AT 9VE/$ 9 TRADE & 9DU/RY1 & :5 ALMO/ EV]YONE 9 WEAL?Y C\NTRIES WAS 5C\RAG$ TO 9VE/ 9 ! RESULT+ SPECU- LATIVE M>KETS 9 ONE =M OR ANO!R4 ,IT MI<T BE A BIT E>LY TO WRITE ! HIS- TORY1 BUT 9 RETROSPECT1 IT SEEMS TO ME ?AT :AT IS REALLY /RIK+ AB\T ?IS P]IOD IS ! DEGREE TO :I* ! EFFECTIV5ESS ( SU* P]=MATIVE GE/URES CAME TO BE SE5 NOT JU/ AS ! BASIS ( ! ECONOMY BUT ALSO AS ! C5TRAL PR9CIPLE ( POLITICS & EV5 ( \R UND]/&+ ( ! NATURE ( SOCIAL LIFE4 ,CONSID] FIR/ POLITICS4 ,! P]IOD ( ! GREAT ,AM]ICAN H\S+ BUBBLE ALSO CORRESPOND$ TO ! PRESID5CY ( ,GEORGE ,W4 ,BU%1.<#b.> A MAN :OSE /AFF1 /EEP$ AS !Y W]E 9 A CULTURE ( RELIGI\S FAI?1 W\LD SOMETIMES OP5LY ADMIT ?AT !Y CONSID]$ 'REALITY' TO BE SIMPLY :ATEV] PEOPLE C\LD BE MADE TO BELIEVE--?AT IS1 ?AT !RE WAS ULTIMATELY NO?+ BEYOND :AT CAN BE ASSEMBL$ & HELD 9 PLACE ?R\< TE*NIQUES ( POLITICAL P]SUASION 7IF ALSO BACK$ UP BY ! ?REAT ( PHYSICAL =CE74 ,! NOTORI\S EXPLANATION ( ONE UNNAM$ ,BU% AIDE WAS REC\NT$ BY ,NEW ,YORK ,TIMES WRIT] ,RON ,SUSK9D 7#b#d3 #a#e73 0,! AIDE SAID ?AT GUYS LIKE ME W]E '9 :AT WE CALL ! REALITY- BAS$ COMMUNITY1' :I* HE DEF9$ AS PEOPLE :O 'BELIEVE ?AT SOLUTIONS EM]GE FROM Y\R JUDICI\S /UDY ( DISC]NIBLE REALITY4' 444 ',?AT'S NOT ! WAY ! WORLD REALLY WORKS ANYMORE1' HE CONT9U$4 ',WE'RE AN EMPIRE N[1 & :5 WE ACT1 WE CREATE \R [N REALITY4'0 

,!RE IS A FASC9AT+ P>ALLELISM H]E BETWE51 ON ! ONE H&1 ! BELIEF ( CONS]VATIVE ,REPUBLICAN ,*RI/IANS ?AT P[] CREATES ITS [N TRU?S & ITS [N REALITIES &1 ON ! O!R1 ! P]VASIVE ,F\CAULDIANISM ( ! ,AM]ICAN ACADEME ( REC5T DECADES1 NOT TO M5TION ! GREAT BUR/ ( !ORETICAL 9T]E/ 9 ! NOTION ( 'P]=MANCE' ?AT ACCOMPANI$ IT4 ,NO D\BT1 ! PH5OM5ON WILL ATTRACT A LIVELY 9T]E/ AMONG FUTURE 9TELLECTUAL HI/ORIANS4 ,! WIDESPREAD ASSUMPTION ?AT NO MEAN+FUL DI/9CTION C\LD BE MADE BETWE5 ! NATURE ( REALITY 7EV5 SCI5TIFIC REALITY71 ! TE*NIQUES ( KN[L$GE DESIGN$ TO ANALYZE & 9T]PRET ?AT REALITY1 & ! =MS ( 9/ITUTIONAL P[] )9 :I* KN[L$GE IS PRODUC$ 5SUR$ ?AT :5 SOCIAL !ORI/S DID TURN TO ECONOMIC MATT]S1 !Y W\LD SEE ?+S 9 ! SAME LI<T4 ,CALLON MI<T HAVE BE5 ! FIR/ TO EMPHASIZE--& CELEBRATE--! P]=MATIVE ROLE ?AT ECONOMI/S PLAY 9 CREAT+ M>KETS1 BUT BY ! HEI<T ( ! BOOM1 MANY W]E GO+ MU* FUR!R ?AN HE EV] D>$4 ,I WELL REMEMB] ATT5D+ CONF]5CES 9 #bf & #b#g1 JU/ BE=E ! GREAT CRA%1 AT :I* CUTT+-$GE SOCIAL !ORI/S 7,I WILL BE K9D & NOT M5TION ANY NAMES7 PRES5T$ PAP]S DESCRIB+ SOME ( ! COMPLEX F9ANCIAL D]IVATIVES ?AT HAD COME TO DOM9ATE ! AIRY HEI<TS ( GLOBAL F9ANCIAL M>KETS DUR+ ?OSE YE>S1 >GU+ ?AT !SE NEW =MS ( SECURITIZATION1 L9K$ TO NEW 9=MATION TE*NOLOGIES & NEW MODES ( ?9K- + AB\T PHYSICS & BIOLOGY1 H]ALD$ A LOOM+ TRANS=MATION ( ! V]Y NATURE ( TIME & POSSIBILITY--( ! V]Y /RUCTURE ( REALITY ITSELF4 

,WE MI<T *ALK ?IS UP TO ONE EMB>RASS+ CASE ( GULLIBILITY4 ,AT ! TIME1 ! L9E )9 ! 9DU/RY WAS ?AT ! MA!MATICAL =MULAS BEH9D !SE NEW =MS ( SECURITIZATION W]E SO COMPLEX ?AT ONLY A/ROPHYSICI/S C\LD POS- SIBLY UND]/& !M1 & MANY ACADEMICS SEEM TO HAVE FALL5 = ! RUSE1 HOOK1 L9E1 & S9K]4 7,SOME ( ! A/ROPHYSICI/S 9 QUE/ION1 9CID5TALLY1 HAVE S9CE ADMITT$ ?AT !Y DID NOT UND]/& ! ALGORI?MS EI!R2 REALLY1 !Y W]E JU/ MAK+ ?+S UP47 ,H[EV]1 ! ANSW] TO ! QUE/ION1 :AT LAID !M OP5 TO SU* NAIVETE8 GOES DEEP]4 ,! AGE ( ! F9ANCIAL BUBBLE CORRESPOND$ TO A K9D ( HI< WAT]M>K ( ! POLITICAL4 ,! LOGIC ( POLITICS 9VAD$ & BEGAN TO COLONIZE EV]Y?+1 FROM ECONOMIC LIFE TO SOCIAL !ORY1 TO ! PO9T ?AT IT (T5 SEEM$ TO BE ! ONLY POSSIBLE PR9CIPLE ( SOCIAL LIFE-- ( REALITY1 EV54 ,ACTOR-,NETWORK ,!ORY 7,A,N,T71 AS DEVELOP$ BY ,BRUNO ,LAT\R & BY ,CALLON HIMSELF1 C\LD 9 FACT BE SE5 AS ! ULTIMATE APO!OSIS ( ?IS T5D5CY4 ,:AT IT DID WAS TO TAKE ! PR9CIPLE ( POLITICAL P]SUASION1 REPRES5- TATION1 & ALLIANCE BUILD+ & TREAT IT AS IF IT W]E ! ULTIMATE PR9CIPLE ( ONTOLOGY4 ,= ,A,N,T1 REALITY ITSELF1 EV5 D[N TO ! MICROBIAL LEVEL1 IS SIMPLY ?AT :I* CAN BE NEGOTIAT$ BETWE5 ! RELEVANT ACTANTS4.<#c.> ,?IS IS :Y NO ONE WAS PREP>$ = ! MELTD[N4 ,H[ C\LD IT ALL BE A SCAM8 ,A SCAM1 AFT] ALL1 IS A DECEIT1 A MISREPRES5TATION--& 9 POLITICS !RE IS ONLY REPRES5TATION4 

,I %\LD BE MORE EXPLICIT AB\T :AT ,I MEAN BY 'POLITICS' H]E4 ,IF A PHRASE LIKE '! POLITICAL' IS TO MEAN ANY?+1 ,I W\LD >GUE1 IT CAN REF] ONLY TO ?AT DOMA9 ( HUMAN ACTION & EXP]I5CE :]E REALITY ACTUALLY IS :ATEV] ONE CAN CONV9CE O!RS TO ACCEPT4 ,?IS IS PRECISELY :AT MAKES IT DIFF]5T FROM O!R SPH]ES ( HUMAN ACTIVITY4 ,AFT] ALL1 IF ,I W]E TO CONV9CE EV]YONE 9 ! WORLD ?AT ,I C\LD FLY & !N JUMP$ (F A CLIFF1 !IR CONFID5CE 9 MY ABILI- TIES W\LD MAKE NO DIFF]5CE3 ,I W\LD /ILL PLUMMET TO MY DEA?4 ,IF ,I W]E TO CONV9CE EV]YONE 9 ! WORLD ?AT ,I WAS ,EMP]OR ( ,>G5T9A1 ON ! O!R H&1 ,I W\LD 9DE$ BE ,EMP]OR ( ,>G5T9A4 ,POLITICS1 !N1 IS ! DOMA9 ( ! P]=MATIVE1 BUT !RE9 LIES ITS C5TRAL DILEMMA1 ITS FUNDAM5TAL P>A- DOX--?AT IS1 TO CONDUCT POLITICS EFFECTIVELY1 ONE CANNOT ADMIT ?IS4 ,I CANNOT V]Y WELL CONV9CE ! WORLD ?AT ,I AM ,EMP]OR ( ,>G5T9A BY TELL+ EV]YONE ?AT IF !Y BELIEVE ?IS1 IT WILL BECOME TRUE4 ,TO PLAY ! GAME ( POLITICS1 ONE MU/ CON/ANTLY 9SI/ ?AT !RE IS SOME?+ ELSE1 SOME?+ MORE REAL1 LY+ BEH9D ONE'S CLAIMS4 ,:AT ?AT IS DOES NOT MU* MATT] & CAN V>Y ALMO/ 9F9ITELY1 FROM DIV9E GRACE TO POPUL> WILL1 NATIONAL DE/9Y1 ! RI<T ( CONQUE/1 OR ! 9EVITABLE UNFOLD+ ( SOME HI/ORICAL DIALECTIC4 ,:AT MATT]S IS ?AT IT IS NOT SE5 AS %E] P]=MATIVITY4 ,AS A RESULT1 POLITICS EV]Y:]E HAS ALWAYS BE5 SURR\ND$ BY A C]TA9 AIR ( BUNKUM1 HYPOCRISY1 & LIES4 

,LET US CALL ?IS ! 'P>ADOX ( P]=MATIVITY'4 ,!RE IS A /RIK+ SIMIL>- ITY BETWE5 ?IS NOTION & AN?ROPOLOGICAL !ORIES ( MAGIC1 P>TICUL>LY ! /RA9 ?AT SEES MAGIC AS ESS5TIALLY A =M ( EXPRESSIVE P]=MANCE--A /RA9 ?AT RUNS ?R\< ,MAL9[SKI 7#a#i#b#b1 #a#i#c#e1 #a#i#d#h.>71 ,LEA* 7#a#i#e#d1 #a#i#h#b71 & ,TAMBIAH 7#a#i#h#e2 CF4 ,GRAEB] #b#a3 #b#e#f-#b#f74.<#d.> ,9S(> AS IT IS A =M ( P]- =MANCE1 MAGIC--LIKE POLITICS--IS ALSO AB\T MAK+ SOME?+ TRUE BY SAY- + SO1 & ?IS IS ONE REASON ?AT IT1 TOO1 IS WIDELY SE5 AS L+]+ HALFWAY BETWE5 POETIC EXPRESSION & \TRI<T FRAUD4 

,RELATIVI/IC AN?ROPOLOGI/S HAVE ALWAYS BE5 UNC]TA9 AB\T H[ TO APPROA* ! FRAUD ELEM5T4 ,!RE HAS BE5 A BIT ( UNCOM=TABLE CA/+ AB\T :5 !Y HAVE TO CONFRONT ! FACT ?AT1 EV5 AMONG ! ,KWAKIUTL OR ,AZ&E1 MO/ AUDI5CE MEMB]S WITNESS+ MAGICAL P]=MANCES ASSUME ?AT ! P]=M] IS LIKELY TO BE AN IMPO/OR & CONFID5CE >TI/4 ,BUT ?IS IS1 ( C\RSE1 BECAUSE MO/ ,KWAKIUTL OR ,AZ&E >E NOT RELATIVI/S !MSELVES4 ,9 A SIMIL> WAY1 REC5T ATTEMPTS TO REF\ND REALITY ON POLITICAL PR9CIPLES--P[]1 P]=MANCE1 NEGOTIATION--SEEM TO FALL 9TO A COMP>ABLE RELATIVI/ TRAP4 ,!Y IGNORE :AT IS P]HAPS ! MO/ IMPORTANT DIM5SION ( POLITICS ITSELF4 ,ACTU- ALLY1 ONE C\LD WELL >GUE ?AT !Y IGNORE ! TWO MO/ IMPORTANT DIM5SIONS ( POLITICS BECAUSE1 UNLIKE ! ANONYM\S ,BU% AIDE :O HAD NO TR\BLE ADMITT+ 0WE'RE AN EMPIRE N[10 P]=MANCE !ORI/S REGUL>LY SIDE/EP ! :OLE QUE/ION CONC]N+ ?OSE RELATIONS--:AT WE EUPHEMI/ICALLY REF] TO AS '=CE'--?AT HOLD IT ALL 9 PLACE4 ,! DIFF]5CE BETWE5 ! %AMAN & ! ECONOMI/1 AFT] ALL1 IS ?AT ! %AMAN IS RELY+ ONLY ON P]=MANCE2 M>- KETS1 9 CONTRA/1 >E HELD TOGE!R BY PROP]TY RI<TS BACK$ UP BY ! P[] ( >MIES1 JUDGES1 PRISONS1 & POLICE4 ,! ROLE ( GOV]NM5TS 7& WEAPONS7 BECOMES EV5 MORE APP>5T IF WE TURN--AS1 AGA91 ,CALLON & HIS FOLL[]S (T5 SEEM DET]M9$ TO AVOID DO+--TO ! ROLE ( MONEY4.<#e.> 

,IF IT IS ONE ( ! SECRET SC&ALS ( CAPITALISM ?AT ITS CORE 9/ITUTIONS HAVE ALWAYS BE5 5TANGL$ 9 GOV]NM5T1 NO:]E IS ?IS TRU] ?AN 9 ! CASE ( MONEY4 ,CAPITALI/ MONEY P] SE HAS ALWAYS BE5 PRIM>ILY GOV]NM5T DEBT MONEY1 USUALLY CREAT$ ?R\< C5TRAL BANKS1 ?AT IS1 *>T]$ MONOPOLIES ?AT >E GIV5 ! RI<T TO ISSUE GOV]NM5T DEBT 9 ! =M ( PAP] MONEY4 ,! ,BANK ( ,5GL& IS ! P>ADIGMATIC EXAMPLE4 ,IT WAS CREAT$ 9 #afid :5 A CONSORTIUM ( #d ,LONDON & ,$9BUR< M]*ANTS (F]$ ,K+ ,WILLIAM ,I,I,I A ,G,B,P#a4#b MILLION LOAN TO HELP F9ANCE A W> AGA9/ ,FRANCE4 ,9 DO+ SO1 !Y ALSO CONV9C$ HIM TO ALL[ !M TO =M A CORPORATION ) A MONOPOLY ON ! ISSUANCE ( BANK NOTES1 :I* W]E1 9 EFFECT1 PROMISSORY NOTES = ! MONEY ?AT ! K+ N[ [$ !M4 ,?IS WAS ! FIR/ 9DEP5D5T NATIONAL C5TRAL BANK4 ,IT BECAME ! CLE>+-H\SE = DEBTS [$ BETWE5 SMALL] BANKS1 & ! NOTES SOON DEVELOP$ 9TO ! FIR/ ,EUROPEAN NATIONAL PAP] CURR5CY4 ,H[EV]1 NOT UNLIKE MU* E>LI] ,DUT* OR ,V5ETIAN BONDS1 ,G]MAN R5TES1 OR ,SPANI% JUROS1 ?IS PAP] MONEY WAS ESS5TIALLY NEGOTIABLE GOV]NM5T W> DEBT4 ,9 O!R WORDS1 9 A GE/URE ( :AT CAN ONLY BE DESCRIB$ AS MAGNIFIC5T CIRCUL>ITY1 ! VALUE ( MONEY WAS ULTIMATELY ?AT ( A PROMISE TO REPAY MADE BY A GOV]NM5T ?AT HAD TAK5 \T A LOAN TO 5ABLE IT TO CREATE & MA9- TA9 ! V]Y APP>ATUS ( VIOL5CE 7NOT TO M5TION ! UND]LY+ PROP]TY RELATIONS & 9/ITUTIONAL /RUCTURE7 ?AT GU>ANTE$ ITS ABILITY TO REPAY ! LOAN TO BEG9 )4 

,?IS CIRCUL>ITY WAS NOT LO/ ON CONTEMPOR>Y OBS]V]S1 :O W]E AW>E ?AT CAPITALI/ F9ANCE WAS ULTIMATELY BAS$ ON PUBLIC CR$IT4.<#f.> ,9 #a#g#a#a1 ! SATIRICAL ESSAYI/ ,JOSEPH ,ADDISON P5N$ A LITTLE FANTASY AB\T ! ,BANK ( ,5GL&'S--&1 AS A RESULT1 ! ,BRITI% MONET>Y SY/EM'S--DEP5D5CE ON PUBLIC FAI? 9 ! LEGITIMACY ( ! K+'S TITLE & ! POLITICAL /ABILITY ( ! ?RONE 7! ,ACT ( ,SETTLEM5T ( #aga WAS ! BILL ?AT GU>ANTE$ ! ROYAL SUC- CESSION1 & A SPONGE WAS A POPUL> SYMBOL = DEFAULT73 

,HE SAW ,PUBLIC ,CR$IT1 SET ON H] ?RONE 9 ! ,GROC]'S ,HALL1 ! ,GREAT ,*>T] OV] H] HEAD1 ! ,ACT ( ,SETTLEM5T FULL 9 H] VIEW4 ,H] T\* TURN$ EV]Y- ?+ TO GOLD4 ,BEH9D H] SEAT1 BAGS FILL$ ) CO9 W]E PIL$ UP TO ! CEIL- +4 ,ON H] RI<T ! DOOR FLIES OP54 ,! ,PRET5D] RU%ES 91 A SPONGE 9 ONE H&1 & 9 ! O!R A SWORD1 :I* HE %AKES AT ! ,ACT ( ,SETTLEM5T4 ,! BEAUTIFUL ,QUE5 S9KS D[N FA9T+4 ,! SPELL BY :I* %E HAS TURN$ ALL ?+S >\ND H] 9TO TREASURE IS BROK54 ,! MONEY BAGS %R9K LIKE PRICK$ BLADD]S4 ,! PILES ( GOLD PIECES >E TURN$ 9TO BUNDLES ( RAGS OR FAGOTS ( WOOD5 TALLIES4.<#g.> 

,NOT ONLY IS ! MONEY SY/EM DEP5D5T ON PUBLIC FAI?1 BUT ?AT FACT OP5S IT UP TO EV]Y SORT ( CONFID5CE GAME & MANIPULATION4 ,IT IS NO CO9CID5CE ?AT :ILE ! ,BANK ( ,5GL& & ,BANK ( ,SCOTL& DID MANAGE TO E/ABLI% !MSELVES ON A P]MAN5T BASIS1 SIMIL> E>LY EF=TS 9 ,SW$5 & ,FRANCE W]E SPECTACUL> FAILURES4 ,! ,BANK ( ,5GL& ITSELF B>ELY )/OOD ! CRISIS ( ! ,S\? ,SEA ,BUBBLE ( #a#g#b1 N9E YE>S AFT] ,ADDISON'S ESSAY APPE>$4 ,! CREATION ( A GOV]NM5T-SPONSOR$ JO9T /OCK OP]ATION1 SUPPOS$LY AIM$ TO H>VE/ ! WEAL? ( ,S\? ,AM]ICA1 TURN$ 9TO A V]ITABLE ORGY ( :AT W\LD N[ BE CALL$ />TUP (F]+S4 ,JO9T-/OCK CORPORATIONS FLOAT$ %>ES ?AT 9 EV]Y CASE W]E BID TO \TRAGE\SLY 9FLAT$ PRICES BY 9VE/ORS DET]M9$ TO CA% 9 ON ! BUBBLES ?AT !Y KNEW !Y W]E CREAT+ BE=E ! BUBBLES 9EVITABLY BUR/4 0,EV]Y FOOL10 AS ONE POPUL> BALLAD ( ! TIME APTLY PUT IT1 0ASPIR$ TO BE A KNAVE10 ?AT IS1 TO GET 9 ON ! GAME ( CREAT+ VALUE \T ( NO?+ & !N1 EV5 MORE IMPORTANTLY1 TO GET \T BE=E ! MONEY BAGS %RANK LIKE PRICK$ BLADD]S1 LEAV+ SOME O!R SUCK] ) ! RESULT+ BUNDLE ( RAGS4 

,! DANG] ( SU* SPECULATION WAS ONE ( ! MA9 REASONS = ! C]- ATION ( C5TRAL BANKS TO BEG9 )1 YET ! RESULTANT P]MAN5T 5TANGLEM5T ( GOV]NM5T & CAPITAL H>DLY PURGES MONEY ( ITS POLITICAL--& ?US MAGICAL--ELEM5T4 ,EV] S9CE ,GOE! HAD ,FAU/1 WORK+ ) HIS ASSI/ANT ,MEPHI/OPHELES1 SAVE ! ,G]MAN EMP]OR FROM HIS DEBTS BY CONV9C+ HIM TO 9V5T PAP] MONEY 7TO BE BAS$1 HE EXPLA9$1 ON ! VALUE ( GOLD AS YET UNDISCOV]$ B5EA? ! SURFACE ( HIS EMPIRE71 !RE HAS BE5 A S5SE ?AT !RE IS SOME?+ VAGUELY DIABOLICAL AB\T ! IDEA ( A MONEY SY/EM BAS$ PURELY ON GOV]NM5T PROMISES1 IF ONLY DUE TO ! TACIT RECOGNITION ?AT-- LIB]AL PROTE/S TO ! CONTR>Y--'F9ANCIAL WIZ>DRY' IS NEV] TOO F> REMOV$ FROM ! BUS9ESS ( EQUIPP+ >MIES & POLICE4 

,*ANCE 

,! BE/ ?+ ?AT CAN BE SAID AB\T ! CURR5T !ORETICAL EMPHASIS ON P]- =MATIVITY1 ,I ?9K1 IS ?AT IT NEV] ALL[S US TO =GET ?AT SOCIAL CON/RUCTS-- :E!R M>KETS1 G5D]S1 OR SCI5TIFIC !ORIES--DO NE$ TO BE CON/RUCT$2 !Y DO NOT SIMPLY EXI/ BUT HAVE TO BE CON/ANTLY PRODUC$ &1 EV5 MORE1 MA9TA9$ BY HUMAN ACTION4 ,?IS IS A WELCOME BREAK ) PA/ APPROA*ES ?AT (T5 TOOK SU* CON/RUCTS COMPLETELY = GRANT$4 ,!IR C5TRAL FLAW WAS ?AT !Y OV]LOOK$ ! FACT ?AT ?OSE :O CREATE & MA9TA9 SU* CON- /RUCTS CANNOT !MSELVES RELY ON A !ORY ( P]=MATIVITY4 

,SO :AT POPUL> CONCEPTS DID EM]GE DUR+ ?IS SAME P]IOD ( ! RISE ( MOD]N MONEY & F9ANCIAL CAPITALISM8 ,! ANSW] IS WELL-KN[N4 ,IT WAS NO CO9CID5CE ?AT CONTEMPOR>Y CONCEPTS ( LUCK1 *ANCE1 PROBABILITY1 & RISK ALSO EM]G$ AT ! 5D ( ! SEV5TE5? C5TURY & DEVELOP$ 9 CLOSE ASSOCIATION ) BO? MOD]N1 POPUL> GAMBL+ 7,REI? #a#i#i#i71 MOD]N /ATI/ICAL SCI5CE1 & ! FAMILI> APP>ATUS ( F9ANCE1 ?AT IS1 /OCKS1 BONDS1 COMMODITY FUTURES1 PUT OPTIONS1 BROK]AGE H\SES1 &1 EV5TUALLY1 ! SCI5CE ( ECONOMICS ITSELF 7SEE1 E4G41 ,BECK #a#i#i#b1 #a#i#i#i2 ,HACK+ #a#i#g#e1 #a#i#i74 ,!SE CONCEPTS HAVE COME TO SEEM SO COMMONS5SICAL TO ?OSE RAIS$ 9 WORLDS DOM9AT$ BY SU* 9/ITUTIONS ?AT WE T5D TO =GET H[ PECULI> !IR BASIS REALLY IS4 ,I REMEMB] H[ />TL$ ,I WAS1 :5 ,I FIR/ BEGAN MY /UDIES 9 ,MAD- AGASC>1 TO DISCOV] ?AT EV5 WELL-$UCAT$ URBANITES1 FLU5T 9 ,FR5* OR EV5 ,5GLI%1 SIMPLY HAD NO IDEA :AT ,I WAS TALK+ AB\T :5 ,I ALLUD$ TO !M4 ,A TYPICAL CONV]SATION ) A FRI5D 7CONDUCT$1 9 FACT1 9 ,5GLI%7 FOLL[S3 

,DAVID3 ,:AT DO Y\ ?9K ! *ANCE IS ?AT A BUS WILL COME 9 ! NEXT FIVE M9UTES8 

,ZAKA3 ,HUH8 

,DAVID3 ,I WAS ?9K+ ( RUNN+ UP ! HILL TO GET SOME CIG>ETTES4 ,I FIGURE IT'LL TAKE MAYBE FIVE M9UTES4 ,:AT DO Y\ ?9K ! *ANCE IS ?AT A BUS WILL COME BE=E ,I'M BACK8 

,ZAKA3 ,I DON'T KN[4 ,A BUS MI<T COME4 ,DAVID3 ,BUT IS IT LIKELY TO8 

,ZAKA3 ,:AT DO Y\ MEAN8 

,DAVID3 ,Y\ KN[1 :AT'S ! *ANCE8 ,IS !RE A V]Y L>GE *ANCE IT WILL COME8 ,OR JU/ A SMALL *ANCE8 

,ZAKA3 ,A *ANCE CAN BE BIG OR SMALL8 

,DAVID3 ,WELL1 IS IT MORE LIKE #a 9 #a8 ,OR MORE LIKE #e-#e8 

,ZAKA3 ,H[ W\LD ,I KN[8 ,I DON'T KN[ :5 ! BUS IS GO+ TO >RIVE4 

,NO D\BT1 IF ,I HAD 9VE/IGAT$ ! ,MALAGASY T]M9OLOGY EMPLOY$ BY POK] PLAY]S & O!R GAMBL]S1 :O W]E LEGION1 ,I W\LD HAVE BE5 ABLE TO F9D A VOCABUL>Y ?AT C\LD BE US$ = SU* PURPOSES4 ,BUT ! FACT REMA9S ?AT ?IS LANGUAGE WAS NOT COMMONLY EMPLOY$ = EV]YDAY SITUATIONS & !SE CONCEPTS DID NOT COME 9TUITIVELY4 ,EV5 :5 MY ,MALAGASY DID BECOME FLU5T1 

,I NEV] HE>D PEOPLE EMPLOY+ LANGUAGE 9 ! WAY ?AT PEOPLE W\LD DO SO 9 ,AM]ICA1 = EXAMPLE1 0,I'D SAY #c TO #a ! COPS WON'T EV5 NOTICE ?AT ,I'M P>K$ H]E40 ,9 FACT1 ,I DISCOV]$ NOT ONLY ?AT SU* A WAY ( ?9K+ WAS UNKN[N TO MO/ ,MALAGASY1 BUT ALSO ?AT1 ONCE EXPLA9$1 IT SEEM$ JU/ AS PECULI>1 EXOTIC1 & ULTIMATELY UNFA?OMABLE AS ANY ( ?OSE CLASSIC AN?ROPO- LOGICAL CONCEPTS1 SU* AS MANA1 B>AKA1 OR S'AKTI1 REGUL>LY EMPLOY$ 9 O!R P>TS ( ! WORLD TO PUT A NAME ON ! PLAY ( *ANCE OR TO EXPLA9 O!RWISE 9EXPLICABLE CONJUNCTURES OR EV5TS4 

,ONCE ,I BEGAN TO ?9K AB\T IT1 ,I REALIZ$ ?AT ?IS PUZZLEM5T WAS A PRETTY REASONABLE RESPONSE4 ,*ANCE ACTUALLY IS A V]Y PECULI> CONCEPT4 ,ZAKA WAS RI<T3 ! MA9 ?+ IS ?AT WE DO NOT KN[ :5 ! BUS IS GO+ TO >RIVE4 ,?IS IS ! ONLY ?+ ?AT WE CAN SAY = C]TA94 ,ANY?+ C\LD HAPP5--! BUS MI<T BREAK D[N1 !RE MI<T BE A /RIKE1 AN E>?QUAKE MI<T HIT ! CITY4 ,( C\RSE1 ALL !SE ?+S >E1 FROM A /ATI/ICAL P]SPECTIVE1 V]Y UNLIKELY1 MILLION-TO-ONE *ANCES1 REALLY4 ,BUT IT IS ?AT V]Y APPLICATION ( NUMB]S TO ! UNKN[ABLE ?AT /RUCK MY ,MALAGASY 9T]LOCUTORS AS BIZ>RE--& NOT )\T REASON4 ,:AT A /ATI/ICAL P]SPECTIVE PROPOSES IS ?AT WE CAN MAKE A PRECISE QUANTIFICATION BAS$ ON \R LACK ( KN[L$GE1 ?AT IS1 WE CAN SPECIFY ! PRECISE DEGREE TO :I* WE DO NOT KN[ :AT IS GO+ TO HAPP54 

,9 PLACES :]E SU* CONCEPTS >E /ILL RELATIVELY NEW 7AT LEA/ TO MANY71 !RE >E JOKES AB\T ?IS SORT ( ?+4 ,FOLL[+ IS A /ORY FROM #a#i#hS ,LEBANON DUR+ ! CIVIL W>3 

,!RE WAS A ,LEBANESE EXECUTIVE :O US$ TO MAKE REGUL> BUS9ESS TRIPS 9 & \T ( ! ,BEIRUT AIRPORT4 ,ONCE1 AFT] A LATE NI<T DR9K+ ) FRI5DS1 HE ADMIT- T$ ?AT EV]Y TIME HE FLEW \T ( ! CITY HE BR\<T TWO BRIEFCASES ) HIM3 ONE = HIS PAP]S1 ! O!R FULL ( PLA/IC EXPLOSIVES4 

0,BUT ,HASSAN10 EXCLAIM$ ONE ( HIS FRI5DS1 0Y\'RE ! LA/ P]SON 9 ! WORLD :O'D EV] BE A T]RORI/4 ,:Y W\LD Y\ WANT TO BL[ UP AN AIRPLANE80 

0,I W\LDN'T4 ,ACTUALLY ,I'M T]RIFI$ ( ! V]Y IDEA ( IT40 0,!N :Y BR+ A BOMB80 

0,AS A SECURITY PRECAUTION4 ,I MEAN1 ?9K AB\T IT /ATI/ICALLY4 ,:AT'S ! /A- TI/ICAL *ANCE !RE W\LD BE TWO DIFF]5T BOMBS ON ! SAME AIRPLANE80 

,! 9TR9SIC ODDNESS ( /ATI/ICAL ?\<T IS ALL ! MORE /RIK+ :5 ONE CONSID]S ?AT ! RESULTANT CONCEPT ( RISK HAS BECOME C5TRAL TO ! V]Y ESS5CE ( \R CURR5T PR(IT-BAS$ ECONOMIC SY/EM4 ,PR(IT1 AFT] ALL1 IS ALMO/ UNIV]SALLY LOOK$ ON AS AN 5TREPR5EUR'S REW>D = BE+ WILL+ TO UND]- TAKE RISK4 ,?IS WAS AN IDEA ORIG9ALLY SET D[N 9 PR9T BY ! ECONOMI/ ,F]D- ]ICK ,HAWLEY 7#a#h#i#c71 BUT ALREADY A G5]ATION LAT] IT WAS BE+ DESCRIB$ AS ECONOMIC COMMON S5SE BY 5TREPR5EURS !MSELVES 7,HOPK9S #a#i#c#c2 ,KNI<T .<#a#i#b#a.> #a#i#e#g3 #c#f#b74 ,:ILE ! HI/ORY ( SU* IDEAS NE$S TO BE RECON/RUCT$ 9 GREAT] DETAIL1 WE SEEM TO BE 9 ! PRES5CE ( A CURI\S TRANS=MATION ( >I/OCRATIC HONOR1 :I* WAS ALL AB\T ! WILL+NESS TO WAG] EV]Y?+-- FIR/ 9 W>1 LAT] AT ! GAMBL+ TABLE--9TO A K9D ( 9V]T$ B\RGEOIS =M4 ,9SURANCE & O!R SU* F9ANCIAL 9NOVATIONS W]E 9ITIALLY CREAT$ TO M9IMIZE ! V]Y SORT ( RISK ?AT WAS AN >I/OCRAT'S GREATE/ GLORY1 BUT 9 ?IS TRANS=MATION1 RISK1 N[ REFRAM$ AS AN ON]\S BURD5 ?AT NO ONE W\LD WI% TO UND]TAKE = ITS [N SAKE1 RETURN$ AS ! V]Y ?+ ?AT ! 5TRE- PR5EUR WAS TO BE REW>D$ = BE+ H]OICALLY WILL+ TO UND]TAKE4 ,9 ! PROCESS1 ! V]Y NOTION ( RISK %[$ A REM>KABLE T5D5CY TO CON/ANTLY EXPLODE ITS B\ND>IES4 ,ALREADY 9 ! #a#i#bS1 ,KNI<T WAS *ALL5G+ ,HAWLEY'S IDEA ( CALCULAT$ RISK BY >GU+ ?AT PR(IT IS BAS$ NOT 9 ! CALCULATION ( ODDS BUT 9 MAK+ ONESELF OP5 TO ABSOLUTE UNC]TA9TY1 TO ! FACT ?AT W>1 FAM9E1 OR UTT]LY UNPR$ICTABLE TURNS ( ! M>KET--HI/ORY1 AS ,I HAVE CALL$ IT--MI<T D]AIL ANY ECONOMIC PROJECT AT ANY TIME4 ,PR(IT WAS ! CAPITALI/S' REW>D = HAV+ ! C\RAGE TO 5T] HI/ORY4 

,MORE ON ,TIME & ! ,HUMAN ,CONDITION 

,LET ME RETURN FROM ! MAGIC ( ! M>KETPLACE TO MORE FAMILI> AN?ROPOLOGI- CAL IDEAS ( MAGIC4 ,I BEGAN ?IS ESSAY BY SAY+ ?AT :5EV] ONE 5C\NT]S APP>5TLY MURKY1 MY/ICAL CONCEPTS ( 9VISIBLE P[] LIKE MANA--:I* ,MAUSS & ,HUB]T 7#a#i#d7 SO FAM\SLY SAW AS ! BASIS ( MAGIC--OR EV5 CONCEPTS SU* AS FATE OR WIT*CRAFT1 ONE IS NORMALLY DEAL+ ) FUNDAM5TAL DILEMMAS 9 ! HUMAN SITUATION1 PROBLEMS ?AT NO ONE1 9CLUD+ SOCIAL !O- RI/S1 FULLY UND]/&S OR EV] WILL4 

,>I/OTLE WROTE 9 HIS ,POETICS ?AT A GOOD /ORY IS ONE 9 :I* EV]Y?+ ?AT HAPP5S SURPRISES US :5 IT HAPP5S1 BUT AFT]W>DS SEEMS LIKE ! ONLY ?+ ?AT C\LD POSSIBLY HAVE HAPP5$4 ,?IS IS JU/ A WAY ( SAY+ ?AT >T %\LD IMITATE LIFE BECAUSE ?IS IS ALMO/ PRECISELY H[ WE EXP]I5CE ! C\RSE ( EV5TS1 AT LEA/ OV] ! LONG T]M4 ,WE HAVE NO IDEA1 REALLY1 :AT WILL HAPP5 9 ! FUTURE4 ,WE CAN IMAG9E ALL SORTS ( POSSIBILITIES1 AT LEA/ 9 :AT SOME LIKE TO REF] TO AS 'ALEATORY' PO9TS 9 HUMAN AFFAIRS 7US+ A WORD D]IV$ FROM ! ,LAT9 = 'DICE'1 ) LIFE LIT]ALLY BECOM+ A CRAP%OOT74 ,BUT 9 FACT ONLY ONE ?+ WILL HAPP53 \R FA!R WILL RECOV] FROM PNEUMONIA OR HE WILL NOT2 \R DAU<T] WILL W9 ! S*OL>%IP OR %E WILL NOT4 ,& AS SOON AS WE DISCOV] :I* ONE ?+ ?AT WAS1 TO SAY ?AT SOME?+ ELSE 'C\LD' HAVE HAP- P5$ RAPIDLY BECOMES PO9TLESS1 EV5 MEAN+LESS4 

,HI/ORIANS1 :O HAVE TO DEAL ) ?IS SORT ( PROBLEM HEAD-ON1 DELIB]ATE AB\T DET]M9ISM V]SUS VOLUNT>ISM3 ,TO :AT EXT5T >E HUMANS REALLY ACTORS 9 HI/ORY8 ,TO :AT DEGREE >E \TCOMES PR$ET]M9$8 ,! FASC9AT+ ?+ IS ?AT !RE IS NO POSSIBILITY ( PROVID+ EVID5CE = EI!R POSITION3 ! QUE/ION IS ULTIMATELY JU/ A MATT] ( PHILOSOPHICAL TA/E4 ,S9CE AT ANY ALEATORY MOM5T ONLY ONE ?+ DOES 9 FACT 5D UP HAPP5+1 IT IS NOT 5TIRELY CLE> :AT SAY- + ?AT SOME?+ ELSE C\LD HAVE HAPP5$ W\LD EV5 MEAN4 ,ONE CANNOT GO BACK TO #a#g#f#i1 /RANGLE ,NAPOLEON 9 HIS CRADLE1 & !N OBS]VE H[ DIFF]5TLY HI/ORY W\LD HAVE TURN$ \T4 ,AS A RESULT1 WRIT+ AB\T :AT MI<T HAVE HAP- P5$ BECOMES1 AT BE/1 A P>LOR GAME4 ,?IS BECOMES ALL ! MORE TRUE ! MORE ?AT TIME GOES ON4 ,ALFR$ ,TOYNBEE 7#a#i#f#i71 = 9/ANCE1 WROTE AN ESSAY TITL$ 0,IF ,ALEX&] ! ,GREAT ,HAD ,LIV$ ,ON0 9 :I* HE SPECULAT$ AB\T :AT MI<T HAVE HAPP5$ HAD ,ALEX&] TAK5 HIS DOCTOR'S ADVICE & NOT DI$ Y\NG ( FEV] 7= ! CURI\S READ]1 HE 5DS UP CONQU]+ ,9DIA & ,*9A1 :ILE HIS SUCCESSORS CONV]T TO ,BUDDHISM1 9V5T ! /EAM 5G9E1 &1 AFT] A C\PLE G5]ATIONS1 DISCOV] ,AM]ICA74 ,IT IS MY IMPRESSION ?AT MO/ HI/ORIANS CON- SID] ?IS ESSAY SOME?+ ( AN EMB>RASSM5T4 ,C]TA9LY1 IT IS H>D TO IMAG9E ANY LESS] FIGURE BE+ ALL[$ TO GET AWAY ) PUBLI%+ SU* AN EFFUSION 9 A HI/ORICAL J\RNAL1 RA!R ?AN AS A WORK ( FICTION4 ,BUT EV5 ! QUE/ION1 C\LD ,HANNIBAL HAVE WON ! ,SECOND ,PUNIC ,W>8 IS PROBLEMATIC 9 ! SAME WAY4 ,= ?AT MATT]1 SO >E COMMONPLACE ?\<T EXP]IM5TS1 SU* AS1 :AT W\LD Y\ HAVE DONE IF Y\ W]E ,NAPOLEON 9 #a#h#a#b8 ,AFT] ALL1 IF ONE W]E ,NAPO- LEON1 W\LD ONE NOT HAVE DONE EXACTLY :AT ,NAPOLEON DID8 

,TO MAKE A CASE ?AT NOTIONS SU* AS FATE1 LUCK1 *ANCE1 OR PROBABILITY1 & ALSO ONES LIKE MANA1 GRACE1 OR WIT*CRAFT1 >E ALL WAYS ( GRAPPL+ ) ?IS FUNDAM5TAL P>ADOX--?AT :ILE WE CANNOT =ESEE ! FUTURE1 ONCE ?AT FUTURE HAS BECOME ! PA/1 IT IS ALMO/ IMPOSSIBLE TO LOOK ON :AT HAPP5$ AS SOME?+ ?AT %\LD NOT HAVE BE5 =ESEEABLE--W\LD BE AN ELABORATE PROJ- ECT4 ,BUT IT IS EASY1 ,I ?9K1 TO SEE H[ SU* A CASE C\LD BE MADE4 ,! CONCEPTS ( FATE & LUCK >E P>TICUL>LY /RAI<T=W>D4 ,IMAG9E A SIMPLE TIMEL9E1 AS %[N 9 FIGURE #a4 

 ,FIGURE #a4 ,FATE & LUCK AS TEMPORAL P]SPECTIVES 

,FATE MI<T BE/ BE CONSID]$ AS A MATT] ( SEE+ ! FUTURE FROM AN IMAG9>Y PO9T 9 TIME EV5 FUR!R 9 ! FUTURE1 :5 ?AT FUTURE WILL HAVE BECOME ! PA/4 ,FROM ! P]SPECTIVE ( ! PRES5T1 !RE >E A MILLION DIFF]- 5T ?+S ?AT MI<T HAPP5 TOMORR[4 ,FROM ! P]SPECTIVE ( NEXT MON? OR NEXT YE>1 !RE WAS ONLY ONE ?+ ?AT DID HAPP5--IT IS JU/ ?AT WE DID NOT KN[ BE=EH& :AT ?AT ONE ?+ WAS4 ,?IS IS SIMIL> TO DE/9Y1 :I* IS A MATT] ( 5DS4 ,AT SOME PO9T 9 ! FUTURE1 WE WILL LOOK AT \R LIVES OR CURR5T EV5TS AS A /ORY4 ,/ORIES1 BY DEF9ITION1 5D4 ,DE/9Y IS ?AT CURR5TLY UNKN[ABLE FUTURE PO9T ?AT PEOPLE EV5 FUR!R 9 ! FUTURE WILL CON/RUCT AS ! 5D4 ,& IF ?IS IS ! CASE1 LUCK IS A SIMPLE 9V]SION1 A M]E MATT] ( FLIPP+ ! *>T >\ND4 

,LUCK IS 7FIR/ & =EMO/1 ANYWAY7 SEE+ ! PA/ FROM A PO9T EV5 FUR!R 9 ! PA/ :5 IT WAS /ILL ! FUTURE4 ,:5 ONE SAYS1 0,?AT WAS JU/ A /ROKE ( DUMB LUCK10 ONE MEANS ?AT ONE W\LD HAVE HAD NO WAY TO PR$ICT BE=E- H& ?AT SU* A ?+ W\LD HAPP54 ,?IS IS ! F\NDATIONAL /RUCTURE ( ! NOTION ( LUCK3 IT IS1 AS WE ALL KN[1 TRANSPOSABLE4 ,WE CAN TALK AB\T HOP+ ?AT \R LUCK WILL HOLD \T OR *ANGE1 OR ?AT WE WILL GET LUCKY4 ,EV5 SO1 ?IS IS TRUE ONLY )9 REASON4 ,TO PU% LUCK TOO F> 9TO ! PA/ QUICKLY BECOMES PO9TLESS4 ,WAS ,ROME JU/ LUCKY ?AT ,HANNIBAL GOT SO LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ! ,C>?AG9IAN S5ATE8 ,AGA91 IT CAN ONLY BE A MEAN+LESS QUE/ION4.<#h.> 

,5DLESS FUR!R SUBTLETIES C\LD BE 9TRODUC$1 YET ! CRITICAL ?+ IS ?AT WE >E DEAL+ H]E NOT ) FUNDAM5TALLY DIFF]5T CONCEPTS BUT RA!R ) PIVOT+ P]SPECTIVES ALONG ! SAME TEMPORAL CONT9UUM--ONE :]E \R ABSOLUTE 9ABILITY TO PR$ICT :AT ! MOV+ F+] IS AB\T TO WRITE BE=EH& IS MAT*$ ONLY BY ! ABSOLUT5ESS ( \R 9ABILITY TO CANCEL HALF A L9E ( IT AFT]W>DS4 ,?IS DOES HAVE SOME 9T]E/+ IMPLICATIONS4 ,= ONE ?+1 IT SUG- GE/S ?AT :AT WE LIKE TO CALL 'FATALISM'--! ASSUMPTION ?AT ALL \TCOMES >E ALREADY FIX$--IS SIMPLY A MATT] ( LOOK+ AT EV]Y?+ FROM ! P]SPECTIVE ( ! FUTURE 7MILL5NIAL OR O!RWISE7 OR1 ALT]NATIVELY1 TO ADD ANO!R DIM5- SION1 FROM SOME DIV9E P]SPECTIVE \TSIDE TIME 5TIRELY1 :I* 9 EFFECT COMES D[N TO ! SAME ?+4 

,IT ALSO HELPS TO EXPLA9 :Y--G5]ATIONS ( MISSION>IES & ,ORI5TALI/S NOT)/&+--A M]E T5D5CY TO ADVANCE NOTIONS LIKE FATE OR DE/9Y DOES NOT ACTUALLY LEAD PEOPLE TO FATALI/IC PASSIVITY4 ,9 FACT1 IT R>ELY EV5 RESULTS 9 ! BELIEF ?AT DE/9IES >E UNALT]ABLE4 ,(T51 WE F9D ?AT ! V]Y PEOPLE :O MO/ CONSI/5TLY EVOKE ! NOTIONS ( FATE OR DE/9Y HAVE ! MO/ ELABORATE TE*NOLOGIES DESIGN$ TO ALT] !M4 

,H]E IT IS TELL+ TO RETURN TO ,MADAGASC> = A MOM5T4 ,I F\ND ?AT EV5 MY $UCAT$ URBAN FRI5DS1 :5 SPEAK+ !IR [N LANGUAGE AT HOME1 W\LD MAKE USE ( ! TRADITIONAL ,MALAGASY CONCEPTS ?AT MISSION>IES 7E4G41 ,DAHLE #a#h#g#f1 #a#h#h#f-#a#h#h#h7 HAVE CIT$ 9 ! PA/--& SOMETIMES /ILL CITE 7E4G41 ,MOLET #a#i#g#i7--TO >GUE ?AT TRADITIONAL ,MALAGASY >E MIR$ 9 A FATALI/IC 9ABIL- ITY TO TAKE CONTROL ( !IR LIVES4 ,IF ONE CONSID]S H[ !SE WORDS >E ACTUALLY EMPLOY$1 H[EV]1 & ESPECIALLY IF ONE EXAM9ES ! =MS ( PRACTICE 9 :I* !Y APPE> TO HAVE TAK5 %APE1 IT BECOMES OBVI\S NOT ONLY ?AT NO?+ C\LD BE FUR!R FROM ! TRU?1 BUT ALSO ?AT !SE IDEAS HAVE CRYS- TALLIZ$ >\ND PRECISELY ! P>ADOXES ?AT ,I HAVE BE5 SETT+ \T OV] ! C\RSE ( ?IS ESSAY4 

,TAKE1 = EXAMPLE1 HAS9A1 :I* IS ! CLOSE/ ONE CAN COME TO A ,MALAGASY WORD = LUCK4 ,IF ONE WANTS TO EXPLA91 SAY1 :Y TWO FI%]M5 ) ID5TICAL GE> & EXP]I5CE CAN HEAD \T ON ! SAME DAY1 & ONE COMES HOME ) A B\NTIFUL CAT* & ! O!R ) NO?+1 !N HAS9A CAN BE ! ONLY EXPLA- NATION4 ,H[EV]1 HAS9A IS USUALLY SPOK5 ( AS IF IT W]E VE/$ 9 P]SONS & OBJECTS1 :I* HAS CAUS$ MANY OBS]V]S TO DESCRIBE IT AS SOME?+ AK9 TO MANA4 ,ALT]NATIVELY1 & P]HAPS MORE ACCURATELY1 IT HAS BE5 DESCRIB$ AS 0?AT 9VISIBLE QUALITY ?AT CAN PRODUCE VISIBLE RESULTS0 7,DELIVRE #a#i#g#d3 #a#d#d-#a#d#e2 MY TRANSLATION74 ,AS SU*1 IT IS ALSO US$ = P]SUASIVE WORDS &1 ABOVE ALL1 = ! P[] ?AT LIES BEH9D EV]Y?+--BEADS1 /ONES1 ! TOMBS ( ANCI5T K+S-- ?AT WE USUALLY REF] TO AS 'MAGIC' OR EV5 'SACR$'4 ,/ILL1 9S(> AS HAS9A IS LODG$ 9 ANY ( !SE ?+S1 IT HAS TO BE MA9TA9$1 MO/ (T5 BY CONDUCT+ RITUALS1 OBS]V+ TABOOS1 OR1 AT ! V]Y LEA/1 BY BE+ ACKN[L$G$ & REC- OGNIZ$4 ,IT IS (T5 SAID ?AT BY DO+ SO ONE CREATES HAS9A TO BEG9 )4 

,:AT IS MORE1 :5 ,I DISCUSS$ SU* ISSUES 9 ! AB/RACT--& ,I F\ND ?IS TO BE TRUE ( PRETTY MU* EV]YONE :O C>$ TO V5TURE AN OP9ION ON !SE MATT]S1 NOT)/&+ !IR LEVEL ( =MAL $UCATION--MY 9T]- LOCUTORS ALMO/ ALWAYS FELL BACK ON SOME V>IATION ( :AT ,I HAVE CALL$ ! P>ADOX ( P]=MATIVITY4 ,IF SOMEONE IS DIRECT+ A *>M AGA9/ Y\--LOVE M$IC9E1 = EXAMPLE1 OR SOME?+ 9T5D$ TO MAKE Y\ ILL OR DRIVE Y\ 9SANE--IT CAN WORK ONLY IF Y\ KN[ AB\T IT & IF Y\ ACTUALLY BELIEVE ?AT IT WILL WORK4 ,?IS1 ,I WAS (T5 ASSUR$1 IS :Y ,I WAS SAFE3 SU* DEVICES NEV] WORK ON =EIGN]S4 ,AT ! SAME TIME1 ASSURANCES LIKE !SE W]E COMPLETELY CONTRADICT$ BY ACTUAL PRACTICE1 S9CE PEOPLE W\LD REGUL>LY CONSULT ) CUR- ]S TO SEE IF !IR ILLNESS1 BAD LUCK1 OR O!R MIS=TUNES W]E ACTUALLY CAUS$ BY SOME MAGICAL *>M ?AT !Y MI<T NOT BE AW>E (4 ,! SITUATION W\LD LEAD TO 5DLESS QU&>IES4 0,EV] S9CE ,I MOV$ TO ?IS VILLAGE10 ONE URBAN- $UCAT$ Y\NG MAN TOLD ME1 0PEOPLE HAVE BE5 TRY+ TO 5SORCEL ME4 ,( C\RSE1 IT DOESN'T WORK BECAUSE ,I DON'T BELIEVE 9 ANY ( ?AT NONS5SE40 0,YES10 SAID HIS SI/]1 RESIGN$LY4 0,I ?\<T ,I DIDN'T BELIEVE 9 IT EI!R4 ,BUT ,I GUESS ,I MU/ BELIEVE 9 IT BECAUSE ,I KEEP GETT+ SICK ALL ! TIME60 

,9 \R T]MS1 !N1 ! CONCEPT ( HAS9A IS QUITE REM>KABLE 9 ?AT IT ROLLS 9TO ONE NOTION ! TWO GREAT P>ADOXES ?AT WE HAVE BE5 DISCUSS+--?AT IS1 ! P>ADOX ( P]=MATIVITY 7?AT SOME ?+S DO BECOME TRUE JU/ BECAUSE Y\ CAN MAKE PEOPLE BELIEVE !M1 BUT ?AT Y\ CANNOT MAKE !M BELIEVE !M IF !Y BELIEVE ?IS TO BE TRUE7 & ! P>ADOX ( =TUNE 7?AT ?OSE ?+S WE CANNOT PR$ICT 9 ! IMM$IATE FUTURE WILL SEEM 9EVITABLE AFT] !Y HAVE OCCURR$74 ,! RESULT IS1 OBVI\SLY & NECESS>ILY1 UN/ABLE1 & HAS9A VIBRATES ) 9T]NAL CONTRADICTION4 ,BUT ?IS IS ! V]Y ESS5CE ( ITS P[]4 

,9 CONTRA/1 CONSID] ! T]M V9TANA1 :I* IS USUALLY TRANSLAT$ AS 'DES- T9Y'4 ,:ILE HAS9A IS AB\T EV]Y?+ ?AT CANNOT BE P9N$ D[N1 V9TANA IS ! V]Y OPPOSITE4 ,IT IS D5SE ) SPECIFICITY4 ,TE*NICALLY1 !RE >E #ab NAM$ V9TANA1 :I* >E BAS$ ON ! #ab LUN> MON?S ( ! ,>ABIC CAL5D>4 ,! SY/EM IS ALSO SUP]IMPOS$ ON SPACE3 ! NOR!A/ CORN] ( ONE'S H\SE1 = 9/ANCE1 CORRESPONDS TO ,ALAHAMADY1 ! FIR/ MON? ( ! YE>1 ! S\!A/ TO ! F\R? MON?1 ! S\?WE/ TO ! EI<? MON?1 & SO ON4 ,F9ALLY1 ! SY/EM IS FRACTAL1 SO ?AT NOT ONLY EA* YE> BUT ALSO EA* MON?1 DAY1 H\R1 & M9UTE C\LD1 9 PR9CIPLE1 BE DIVID$ UP ACCORD+ TO ! SAME #a#b-P>T SY/EM4 ,9 ESS5CE1 EV]Y?+ IS DET]M9$ BY COMPLEX NUM]OLOGICAL CYCLES1 & JU/ AS ! EXACT DATE & TIME ( ONE'S BIR? DET]M9$ ONE'S *>ACT] & ! EV5TS ( ONE'S LIFE1 SO DID ! MOM5T AT :I* ONE BEGAN ANY MAJOR UND]TAK+--BUILD+ A H\SE1 />T+ \T ON A J\RNEY1 RUNN+ A MILIT>Y CAMPAIGN1 SETT+ UP A BUS9ESS 5T]PRISE--DET]M9E ITS EV5TUAL \TCOME4 

,!RE IS ALREADY A V]Y SPECIFIC PR9CIPLE H]E--?AT ALL ?+S HAVE A BEG9- N+ & AN 5D1 & ?AT ! QUALITY ( ! ONE 9 SOME S5SE DET]M9ES ! QUALITY ( ! O!R4 ,TO RETURN TO ! PR9CIPLE ( N>RATIVE1 ! PROBLEM IS ?AT !RE IS NO RULE TO E/ABLI% ! ACTUAL BEG9N+ & 5D ( MO/ REAL-WORLD PH5OM5A4 ,9DE$1 MANY ,MALAGASY RITUALS C\LD BE 9T]PRET$ AS A MEANS TO E/ABLI% SOME SORT ( SOCIALLY AGRE$-UPON N>RATIVE FRAMEWORK TO RESOLVE PRECISELY ?IS PROBLEM4 ,ONE ( ! MO/ SPECTACUL> EXAMPLES IS ! PRACTICE ( COLLECTIVE ORDEALS1 :5 EV]YONE 9 A COMMUNITY PRAYS TO ! ANCE/ORS TO /RIKE D[N :OEV] COMMITT$ SOME GREAT CRIME1 SO ?AT EV]YONE CAN AGREE ?AT ! P]SON NEXT TO DIE MU/ HAVE BE5 ! GUILTY P>TY4 ,?IS LOGIC C\LD BE COMP>$ ) SOME ( ! >GUM5TS CURR5TLY BE+ DEVELOP$ BY SCI5- TI/S AB\T ! NATURE ( 'OP5 SY/EMS'4 ,EV5 IF DIRECT1 PR$ICTABLE CAUSE-EFFECT \TCOMES CAN BE PRODUC$ 9 LABORATORY EXP]IM5TS1 9 :I* ACTION ,A IS ALWAYS FOLL[$ BY EFFECT ,B1 SO MANY DIFF]5T K9DS ( CAUSATIVE ME*ANISMS >E OP]AT+ SIMULTANE\SLY 9 ! REAL WORLD ?AT PR$ICTION MU/ NECESS>- ILY SLIDE BACK 9TO PROBABILITY & GUESSWORK4 ,! USUAL EXAMPLE GIV5 IS \R 9ABILITY TO PR$ICT ! WEA!R1 & IT IS PROBABLY NO CO9CID5CE ?AT &RO1 ! WORD USUALLY US$ 9 COLLOQUIAL ,MALAGASY TO SUB/ITUTE = V9TANA 7A WORD ?AT 9 COMMON P>LANCE HAS A MORE OLD-FA%ION$1 =MAL COLOR71 LIT]ALLY MEANS EI!R 'DAY' OR 'WEA!R'4 

,F9ALLY--& ?IS IS ! REALLY CRUCIAL ?+ H]E--NO ONE REALLY REFLECTS MU* ON DE/9Y AS AN AB/RACT CONCEPT4 ,Y\ WILL OCCASIONALLY F9D PEOPLE REFLECT+ ON ! NATURE ( HAS9A4 ,BUT IF DE/9Y COMES UP1 IT IS BECAUSE !RE IS SOME PRAC- TICAL PROBLEM ?AT NE$S TO BE ADDRESS$--?AT IS1 BECAUSE !RE IS SOME?+ ?AT CAN BE DONE TO ALT] IT4 ,RURAL ELD]S W\LD ALMO/ ALWAYS CLAIM A C]TA9 KN[L$GE ( A/ROLOGY1 :I*1 !Y 9SI/$1 9=M$ IMPORTANT DECISIONS AB\T :]E TO PLACE H\SES OR TOMBS OR :5 TO BEG9 PLANT+ OR H>VE/+4 ,!RE W]E PR(ESSIONAL A/ROLOG]S1 CALL$ MPAN&RO1 :OSE BASIC WORK WAS REF]R$ TO1 9 TURN1 AS A MATT] ( 'CON/RUCT+'1 'ADJU/+'1 OR 'REPAIR+' DES- T9IES 7MANAMBOATRA V9TANA71 L>GELY ?R\< ! USE ( M$IC9ES & *>MS & ! >RANGEM5T ( >*ITECTURAL SPACE4 ,?IS C\LD BE DONE = ANY REASON1 = EXAMPLE1 TO C\NSEL A M>RI$ C\PLE ) CLA%+ DISPOSITIONS 7DUE TO !IR NATAL DE/9IES7 SO ?AT !Y C\LD LIVE H>MONI\SLY1 TO HELP A CLI5T PASS A BAC- CALAUREATE EXAM9ATION1 OR LIT]ALLY TO MANIPULATE ! WEA!R1 SAY1 BY S5D+ A RA9/ORM TO RU9 A C]EMONY SPONSOR$ BY A RIVAL A/ROLOG]4 

,?IS ( C\RSE RAISES ANO!R QUE/ION1 ALSO FAMILI> FROM DEBATES )9 ! PHILOSOPHY ( SCI5CE--?AT IS1 CAN HUMAN UND]/&+ (1 & 9T]V5- TION 91 A COMPLEX SY/EM ( DET]M9ATIONS ITSELF BE CONSID]$ A PRODUCT ( ?AT SY/EM1 OR %\LD IT BE TREAT$ AS AN EM]G5T LEVEL /&+ \TSIDE ( IT8 ,AMONG ?OSE ,I KNEW 9 ,MADAGASC>1 ALMO/ EV]YONE SEEM$1 ON ! SURFACE1 TO BE COMMITT$ TO ! =M] EXPLANATION3 A/ROLOG]S REGUL>LY 9SI/$ ?AT !IR [N KN[L$GE CAME NOT SO MU* FROM /UDY BUT SPONTANE\SLY1 [+ TO !IR [N PECULI> &RO4 ,H[EV]1 :AT ?IS KN[L$GE CAME D[N TO 9 PRACTICE WAS ! ABILITY TO /EP \TSIDE ANY SY/EM ( DET]M9ATIONS 5TIRELY4 ,GREEK TRAG$Y IS FULL ( /ORIES AB\T H]OES :O CONSULT SOO?SAY]S & ORA- CLES 9 AN ATTEMPT TO ESCAPE !IR DE/9Y1 ONLY TO SET 9 MOTION ! V]Y *A9 ( EV5TS ?AT !Y W]E SO DESP]ATELY TRY+ TO AVOID 7,SOPHOCLES' ,O$IPUS BE+ ! MO/ FAM\S71 BUT SU* /ORIES SEEM TO BE ABS5T 9 ,MADAGASC>4.<#i.> ,9 FACT1 = ALL !IR EV]YDAY TALK ( DE/9Y1 ,MALAGASY SEEM F> LESS FATALI/IC ?AN ANCI5T ,GREEKS4 ,9 P>T1 ?IS SEEMS TO BE BECAUSE ! ROLE ( /ORYTELL]--! P]SON :OSE TASK IT IS TO SELECT FROM ! 5DLESS FL[ ( EV5TS ALONG ! TEMPORAL CONT9UUM ?AT ,I HAVE DESCRIB$ ABOVE & TO IMPOSE A UNIFY+ N>RATIVE FRAMEWORK 9 ORD] TO DEF9E SOME EV5TS AS BEG9N+S & O!RS AS 5DS--IS SO (T5 RELEGAT$ TO ! SOO?SAY]S !MSELVES4 ,AS A RESULT1 ! CALCULATION ( DE/9IES G5]ALLY LEADS TO ! MANIPULATIONS ( HAS9A 79 ! =M ( BEADS1 R>E WOODS1 9FUSIONS1 MAGICAL 9CANTATIONS71 A WORD ?AT1 9 ?IS CONTEXT1 MI<T BE/ BE CONCEIV$ ( AS ! P]=MATIVE P[] ( ! V]Y ACT ( IMPOS+ ?AT FRAMEWORK ITSELF4 

,TE*NOLOGIES ( ! ,FUTURE 

,SO F>1 !N1 ,I HAVE SUGGE/$ ?AT MANY ( ! APP>5TLY MY/ICAL T]MS FAMILI> TO AN?ROPOLOGI/S 7E4G41 MANA1 WIT*CRAFT1 DE/9Y7 >E WAYS ( COM+ TO T]MS ) BASIC DILEMMAS CONC]N+ ! V]Y POSSIBILITY ( HUMAN KN[L$GE-- DILEMMAS ?AT >E 9 MO/ CASES JU/ AS MU* A PROBLEM TO SOCIAL !ORI/S AS !Y >E TO ?OSE WE /UDY2 ?AT \R [N POPUL> NOTIONS ( *ANCE1 LUCK1 & PROBABILITY >E BE/ CONSID]$ AS CONCEPTS ( ?IS SORT2 & ?AT ALL ( !SE CONCEPTS1 EV5 ?OSE SU* AS FATE & DE/9Y ?AT W\LD APPE> TO SUGGE/ ?AT ! FUTURE IS PR$ET]M9$1 >E 9 REALITY CAU<T UP 9 PRAGMATIC TE*NIQUES :]EBY PEOPLE TRY TO 9FLU5CE ! C\RSE ( WORLDLY EV5TS4 ,TO ?IS1 ,I W\LD ADD ?AT 9 ANY SOCIAL SY/EM ONE WILL ORD9>ILY EXPECT TO 5C\NT] C]TA9 SPE- CIALIZ$1 TYPICALLY >CANE =MS ( KN[L$GE CREAT$ ON ?IS BASIS ?AT >E SE5 AS CRITICAL 9 UND]/&+ & 9FLU5C+ ?OSE PATT]NS ?AT DET]M9E ! \TCOME ( EV5TS--9CLUD+ EV5TS IMPORTANT TO ! EV]YDAY LIVES ( ORD9>Y PEOPLE--&1 = ?AT REASON1 BECOME A =M ( POPUL> 9T]E/ & SPECULATION AS WELL4 ,F9ALLY1 ,I W\LD SUGGE/ ?AT1 [+ TO ITS NATURE1 IT IS NEV] 5TIRELY CLE> TO :AT DEGREE ANY GIV5 /ATEM5T IS PR$ICTIVE OR P]=MATIVE3 ALMO/ ALWAYS !RE IS AN ELEM5T ( BO?4 ,C]TA9LY1 ?IS IS ! CASE 9 ,MADAGASC>1 :]E JU/ AB\T EV]YONE EV9CES AT LEA/ A PASS+ 9T]E/ 9 A/ROLOGY1 RURAL ELD]S ALMO/ 9V>IABLY CLAIM PR(ICI5CY1 & *EAP 'ALMANACS' & H[-TO PAMPHLETS PROLIF]ATE AT EV5 ! MO/ OBSCURE RURAL M>KETPLACES4 

,ALMO/ 9V>IABLY1 TOO1 !RE >E C]TA9 SPECIALI/S :O CLAIM PRIVILEG$1 EXCLUSIVE KN[L$GE4 ,9 V]Y HI]>*ICAL SOCIETIES1 ELITES WILL EI!R TRY TO MONOPOLIZE SU* MATT]S !MSELVES 7E4G41 ,AZ&E PR9CES MA9TA9 EXCLUSIVE RI<TS TO (FICIATE OV] ! MO/ IMPORTANT ORACLES7 OR ATTEMPT TO =BID !M AS =MS ( IMPIETY 7BO? ,CA?OLIC & ,SUNNI AU?ORITIES HAVE BE5 KN[N TO DO ?IS AT ONE TIME OR ANO!R74 ,!RE IS ALSO A FREQU5T1 AL?\< NOT UNIV]SAL1 T5D5CY = !SE TE*NIQUES TO DRAW ON =MS ( KN[L$GE SE5 AS =EIGN & EXOTIC3 ! ,>ABIC LUN> CAL5D> 9 ,MADAGASC>1 ,*9ESE NUM]OLOGY 9 ,CUBA1 ,BABYLONIAN ZODIACS 9 ,*9A1 & SO ON4 7,IT IS NOT ! PA/1 P]HAPS1 BUT ! FUTURE ?AT REALLY IS A =EIGN C\NTRY47 

,FROM ?IS P]SPECTIVE1 IT IS QUITE EASY TO SEE ?AT ECONOMIC SCI5CE HAS BECOME1 9 CONTEMPOR>Y ,NOR? ,AM]ICA ABOVE ALL1 BUT 9 MO/ ( ! 9DUS- TRIALIZ$ WORLD 7OR1 P]HAPS BETT] SAID1 F9ANCIALIZ$ WORLD71 EXACTLY ?IS SORT ( POPUL> 'TE*NOLOGY ( ! FUTURE'4 ,!RE >E SPECIALI/S :O TRY TO KEEP A MONOPOLY ON C]TA9 =MS ( >CANE KN[L$GE ?AT ALL[ !M TO PR$ICT :AT IS TO COME1 AL?\< 9 A WAY ?AT1 9S(> AS ! SITUATION BECOMES POLITI- CAL1 9EVITABLY SLIPS 9TO P]=MATIVITY4 ,AT ! SAME TIME1 FLUCTUATIONS 9 ! F9ANCIAL M>KETS1 SPECULATION ON /OCKS1 9VE/M5TS1 & ! MA*9ATIONS ( COMMODITIES TRAD]S OR C5TRAL BANK]S1 ALL !SE HAVE BECOME ! /UFF ( EV]YDAY >GUM5TS OV] C(FEE OR BE] OR >\ND WAT] COOL]S EV]Y:]E-- JU/ AS !Y HAVE BECOME ! V]ITABLE OBSESSIONS ( C]TA9 CABLE WAT*]S & D5IZ5S ( ,9T]NET *AT PAGES4 ,!RE IS ALSO A T5D5CY--QUITE TYPICAL ( SU* POPUL> TE*NOLOGIES ( ! FUTURE AS WELL--= IDIOSYNCRATIC 7'CRACKPOT'7 !ORIES TO PROLIF]ATE ON ! POPUL> LEVEL4 

,AT ?IS PO9T1 WE HAVE COME FULL CIRCLE4 ,9S(> AS /ATI/ICAL PROBABILITY HAS BECOME A MATT] ( EV]YDAY COMMON S5SE1 EMPLOY$ EV5 BY ?OSE :O HAVE NEV] PLAY$ A GAME ( *ANCE1 IT IS DUE TO ! FACT ?AT IT HAS BECOME 9SCRIB$ 9 \R [N MO/ POPUL> TE*NOLOGY ( ! FUTURE4 ,YET1 AS EV]Y:]E1 ?AT TE*- NOLOGY IS BUILT ON TOP ( A VACUUM--A FUNDAM5TAL & RADICAL LIMIT TO ! V]Y POSSIBILITY ( HUMAN KN[L$GE4 ,IF TIME IS A DIM5SION1 WE DO NOT EV5 KN[ H[ L>GE ?+S >E--WE CAN ONLY KN[ H[ L>GE !Y W]E1 ONCE !Y NO LON- G] EXI/4 ,!SE EMPTY SPACES >E 5DLESSLY G5]ATIVE4 ,JU/ AB\T EV]Y:]E1 WE F9D !M SURR\ND$ BY AN IMM5SE CONCEPTUAL RI*NESS2 BUT 9 NO CASE IS IT CLE> ?AT \R [N !ORETICAL APP>ATUS IS P>TICUL>LY SUP]IOR TO ANY O!R4 

,REF]5CES 

,AITK51 ,ROB4 #b#g4 ,P]=M+ ,CAPITAL3 ,T[>D A ,CULTURAL ,ECONOMY ( ,POPUL> & ,GLOBAL ,F9ANCE4 ,NEW ,YORK3 ,MAC,MILLAN4 

,AU/91 ,JOHN ,L4 #a#i#f#b4 ,H[ TO ,DO ,?+S ) ,WORDS4 ,$4 ,J4 ,O4 ,URMSON4 ,OX=D3 ,CL>5DON ,PRESS4 

4 #a#i#g4 0,P]=MATIVE ,UTT]ANCES40 ,PP4 #b#c#c-#b#e#b 9 ,PHILOSOPHICAL ,PAP]S1 $4 ,J4 ,O4 ,URMSON & ,G4 ,J4 ,W>NOCK4 #bND $4 ,OX=D3 ,OX=D ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,BAK]1 ,DEAN4 #b#b4 ,! ,RUN-,UP 9 ,H\S+ ,PRICES3 ,IS ,IT ,REAL OR ,IS ,IT ,ANO!R ,BUBBLE8 ,C5T] = ,ECONOMIC & ,POLICY1 ,WA%+TON1 ,D,C4 

,BECK1 ,ULRI*4 #a#i#i#b4 ,RISK ,SOCIETY3 ,T[>DS A ,NEW ,MOD]NITY4 ,LONDON3 ,SAGE4 

4 #a#i#i#i4 ,WORLD ,RISK ,SOCIETY4 ,LONDON3 ,POLITY ,PRESS4 

,CAFF5TZIS1 ,CON/ANT9E ,GEORGE4 #a#i#h#i4 ,CLIPP$ ,CO9S1 ,ABUS$ ,WORDS1 & ,CIVIL ,GOV]NM5T3 ,JOHN ,LOCKE'S ,PHILOSOPHY ( ,MONEY4 ,NEW ,YORK3 ,AUTONOM$IA4 

,CALLON1 ,MI*EL4 #a#i#i#h4 0,9TRODUCTION3 ,! ,EMB$D$NESS ( ,ECONOMIC ,M>KETS 9 ,ECONOMICS40 ,PP4 #a-#e#g 9 ,! ,LAWS ( ! ,M>KETS1 $4 ,MI*EL ,CALLON4 ,OX=D3 ,BLACKWELL4 

,DAHLE1 ,L>S4 #a#h#g#f4 0,! ,9FLU5CE ( ! ,>ABS ON ! ,MALAGASY ,LANGUAGE3 ,AS A ,TE/ ( ,!IR ,CONTRIBUTION TO ,MALAGASY ,CIVILIZATION & ,SUP]/ITION40 ,ANTANAN>IVO ,ANNUAL & ,MALAGASY ,MAGAZ9E #a1 NO4 #b3 #g#h-#i#a4 

4 #a#h#h#f-#a#h#h#h4 0,SIKIDY & ,V9TANA3 ,HALF-,H\RS ) ,MALAGASY ,DIV9]S40 ,ANTANANA- RIVO ,ANNUAL & ,MALAGASY ,MAGAZ9E #a#a-#a#c3 #b#a#h-#b#c#d1 #c#a#e-#c#b#d1 #d#e#g-#d#f#g4 

,DELIVRE1 ,ALA94 #a#i#g#d4 ,L'HI/OIRE DES ROIS D',IM]9A3 ,9T]PRETATION D'UNE TRADITION ORALE4 ,P>IS3 ,KL9CKSIECK4 

,GRAEB]1 ,DAVID4 #b#a4 ,T[>D AN ,AN?ROPOLOGICAL ,!ORY ( ,VALUE3 ,! ,FALSE ,CO9 ( ,\R ,[N ,DREAMS4 ,NEW ,YORK3 ,PALGRAVE4 

,HACK+1 ,IAN4 #a#i#g#e4 ,! ,EM]G5CE ( ,PROBABILITY3 ,A ,PHILOSOPHICAL ,/UDY ( ,E>LY ,IDEAS AB\T ,PROBABILITY1 ,9DUCTION & ,/ATI/ICAL ,9F]5CE4 ,CAMBRIDGE3 ,CAMBRIDGE ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

4 #a#i#i4 ,! ,TAM+ ( ,*ANCE4 ,CAMBRIDGE3 ,CAMBRIDGE ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,H>+1 ,LEE4 #a#i#h#b4 ,MALAGASY ,TALE ,9DEX4 ,FOLKLORE ,FELL[S ,COMMUNICATION1 ,NO4 #b#c#a4 ,HELS9KI3 ,ACADEMIA ,SCI5TI>UM ,F5NICA4 

,HAWLEY1 ,FR$]ICK ,B4 #a#h#i#c4 0,! ,RISK ,!ORY ( ,PR(IT40 ,QU>T]LY ,J\RNAL ( ,ECONOMICS #g1 NO4 #d3 #d#e#i-#d#g#i4 

,HOLM1 ,PETT]4 #b#c4 0,:I* ,WAY ,IS ,UP ON ,CALLON80 ,SOSIOLOGISK ,>BOK #a3 #a#b#e-#a#e#f4 

,HOPK9S1 ,WILLIAM ,S4 #a#i#c#c4 0,PR(IT 9 ,ECONOMIC ,!ORY40 ,REVIEW ( ,ECONOMIC ,/UDIES #a1 NO4 #a3 #f-#f#f4 

,KNI<T1 ,FRANK4 .<#a#i#b#a.> #a#i#e#g4 ,RISK1 ,UNC]TA9TY1 & ,PR(IT4 ,NEW ,YORK3 ,KELLEY @& ,MILLMAN4 ,LAT\R1 ,BRUNO4 #a#i#h#g4 ,SCI5CE 9 ,ACTION3 ,H[ TO ,FOLL[ ,SCI5TI/S & ,5G9E]S ?R\< ,SOCIETY4 ,CAMBRIDGE1 ,M,A3 ,H>V>D ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

4 #a#i#h#h4 ,! ,PA/EURIZATION ( ,FRANCE4 ,TRANS4 ,ALAN ,%]IDAN & ,JOHN ,LAW4 ,CAMBRIDGE1 ,M,A3 ,H>V>D ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,LEA*1 ,$MUND4 #a#i#e#d4 ,POLITICAL ,SY/EMS ( ,HI<L& ,BURMA4 ,CAMBRIDGE3 ,CAMBRIDGE ,UNIV]- SITY ,PRESS4 

4 #a#i#h#b4 ,SOCIAL ,AN?ROPOLOGY4 ,OX=D3 ,OX=D ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,MACAULAY1 ,B>ON ,?OMAS ,BAB+TON4 #a#h#h#f4 ,! ,HI/ORY ( ,5GL&1 FROM ! ,ACCESSION ( ,JAMES ! ,SECOND4 ,VOL4 #b4 ,LONDON3 ,LONGMANS1 ,GRE5 & ,CO4 

,MAC,K5ZIE1 ,DONALD4 #b#d4 0,! ,BIG1 ,BAD ,WOLF & ! ,RATIONAL ,M>KET3 ,PORTFOLIO ,9SURANCE1 ! #aihg ,CRA% & ! ,P]=MATIVITY ( ,ECONOMICS40 ,ECONOMY & ,SOCIETY #c#c1 NO4 #c3 #c#c-#c#c#d4 

,MAC,K5ZIE1 ,DONALD1 ,FABIAN ,MUNIESA1 & ,LUCIA ,SIU1 $S4 #b#g4 ,DO ,ECONOMI/S ,MAKE ,M>KETS8 ,ON ! ,P]=MATIVITY ( ,ECONOMICS4 ,PR9CETON1 ,N,J3 ,PR9CETON ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,MAL9[SKI1 ,BRONISLAW4 #a#i#b#b4 ,>GONAUTS ( ! ,WE/]N ,PACIFIC3 ,AN ,ACC\NT ( ,NATIVE ,5T]- PRIZE & ,ADV5TURE 9 ! ,>*IPELAGOES ( ,MELANESIAN ,NEW ,GU9EA4 ,/UDIES 9 ,ECONOM- ICS & ,POLITICAL ,SCI5CE1 ,NO4 #f#e4 ,LONDON3 ,R\TL$GE4 

4 #a#i#c#e4 ,CORAL ,G>D5S & ,!IR ,MAGIC3 ,A ,/UDY ( ! ,ME?ODS ( ,TILL+ ! ,SOIL & ( ,AGRICULTURAL ,RITES 9 ! ,TROBRI& ,ISL&S4 ,LONDON3 ,ALL5 @& ,UNW94 

4 #a#i#d#h4 ,MAGIC1 ,SCI5CE & ,RELIGION & ,O!R ,ESSAYS4 ,LONDON3 ,FREE ,PRESS4 ,MAUSS1 ,M>CEL1 & ,H5RI ,HUB]T4 #a#i#d4 0,ESQUISSE D'UNE !ORIE G5]ALE DE LA MAGIE40 ,L',ANNEE ,SOCIOLOGIQUE #g3 #a-#a#d#f4 

,MILL]1 ,DANIEL4 #b#b4 0,TURN+ ,CALLON ! ,RI<T ,WAY ,UP40 ,ECONOMY & ,SOCIETY #c#a1 NO4 #b3 #b#a#h-#b#c#c4 

,MOLET1 ,L\IS4 #a#i#g#i4 ,LA CONCEPTION MALGA*E DU MONDE1 DU SURNATUREL ET DE L'HOMME 5 ,IM]9A4 ,VOL4 #a4 ,P>IS3 ,L',H>MATTAN4 

,REI?1 ,G]DA4 #a#i#i#i4 ,! ,AGE ( ,*ANCE3 ,GAMBL+ 9 ,WE/]N ,CULTURE4 ,LONDON3 ,R\TL$GE4 ,SUSK9D1 ,RON4 #b#d4 0,FAI?1 ,C]TA9TY & ! ,PRESID5CY ( ,GEORGE ,W4 ,BU%40 ,NEW ,YORK ,TIMES ,MAGAZ9E1 #ag ,OCTOB]4 

,TAMBIAH1 ,/ANLEY4 #a#i#h#e4 ,CULTURE1 ,?\<T & ,SOCIAL ,ACTION3 ,AN ,AN?ROPOLOGICAL ,P]SPECTIVE4 ,CAMBRIDGE3 ,CAMBRIDGE ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,TOYNBEE1 ,>NOLD ,J4 #a#i#f#i4 0,IF ,ALEX&] ! ,GREAT ,HAD ,LIV$ ,ON40 ,PP4 #d#d#a-#d#h#f 9 ,SOME ,PROB- LEMS 9 ,GREEK ,HI/ORY4 ,OX=D3 ,OX=D ,UNIV]SITY ,PRESS4 

,WALL]/E91 ,IMMANUEL4 #b#c4 ,! ,DECL9E ( ,AM]ICAN ,P[]3 ,! ,U4,S4 9 A ,*AOTIC ,WORLD4 ,NEW ,YORK3 ,NEW ,PRESS4 

.<#a.> ,NEO-CLASSICAL ECONOMI/S1 ( C\RSE1 W]E FAC$ ) A SIMIL> DILEMMA AS !Y BEGAN TO F9D IT 9CREAS+LY DIFFICULT TO JU/IFY ANY DIFF]5CE BETWE5 VALUE & PRICE--?AT IS1 TO BE ABLE TO SAY ?AT A /OCK WAS OV]- OR UND]VALU$ TO BEG9 

.<#b.> ,IT IS WOR?:ILE TO NOTE ?AT ,GEORGE ,W4 ,BU% FIR/ CAME TO (FICE ONLY AFT] LOS+ ! POPUL> VOTE4 ,ESS5TIALLY1 HE WAS WIDELY VIEW$ AS BE+ PRESID5T ALMO/ 5TIRELY BECAUSE ! 9/ITUTIONAL /RUCTURE1 FROM ! ,SUPREME ,C\RT TO ! MASS M$IA1 DECID$ TO SAY ?AT HE 

.<#c.> ,MO/ ( ! S\ND & FURY SURR\ND+ ,A,N,T HAS C5T]$ ON ITS EXPON5TS' 9SI/5CE ?AT :5 IT COMES TO UND]/&+ ! CREATION ( SCI5TIFIC !ORIES1 ! MAT]IAL REALI- TIES ?AT >E BR\<T 9TO BE+--NOT JU/ HUMANS BUT ALL COMPON5TS1 FROM ANIMALS & PLANTS TO TE*NOLOGIES1 MICROBES1 & IDEAS--%\LD BE CONSID]$ ACTIVE AG5TS4 ,! ONE UNIQUE PROP]TY ?AT IS GRANT$ TO HUMANS--! ONE ?AT MAKES !M 'ACTORS' RA!R ?AN M]E 'ACTANTS'--IS !IR ABILITY TO 5T] 9TO NEGOTIATIONS AB\T ! L>G] MEAN+ ( ! NETWORK & !N TO ACT AS ITS ,LAT\R 7#a#i#h#g1 #a#i#h#h7 PO9TS \T ?AT ,L\IS ,PA/EUR1 AN EXTRAORD9>ILY GIFT$ POLITICIAN1 ACCOMPLI%$ ?IS ) F>M]S1 C[S1 HYGI5I/S1 & MICRO-ORGANISMS1 ?US CREAT+ A NEW PHYSICAL REALITY4 

.<#d.> ,TAMBIAH 7#a#i#h#e7 WAS ! FIR/ TO REF]5CE ,AU/9'S 7#a#i#f#b1 #a#i#g7 CONCEPT ( 'P]=MATIV- ITY' EXPLICITLY1 BUT IT SEEM$ SU* AN OBVI\S FIT ?AT IT HAS REMA9$ P>T ( ! TRADITION EV] 

.<#e.> ,:5 ,CALLON SPEAKS ( MONEY1 HE TREATS IT1 AT LEA/ TACITLY1 9 ACCORD ) ! /&>D ECONOMIC MY?--?AT IT IS CREAT$ OR ADOPT$ BY RATIONAL M>KET ACTORS AS A M$IUM ( EX*ANGE OR MEASUREM5T ( VALUE 7SEE1 E4G41 ,CALLON #a#i#i#h3 #c#d-#c#g74 ,BANKS1 :5 !Y >E M5TION$1 >E TREAT$ AS M]E FACILITATORS ( SU* PROCESSES4 ,?IS IS CAPITALI/ MY? 9 P]HAPS ITS PURE/ 

.<#f.> ,MANY OBS]V]S TRI$ TO 9SI/ ?AT ! VALUE ( PAP] CURR5CY WAS ULTIMATELY BAS$ ON SOME?+ BESIDES PUBLIC CR$IT--USUALLY GOLD OR ,SEE ,CAFF5TZIS 7#a#i#h#i7 = A FASCI- NAT+ ACC\NT ( ! RELATION ( SU* DEBATES TO ! MAT]IALI/ PHILOSOPHIES ( ! TIME4 

.<#g.> ,SEE ,MACAULEY 7#a#h#h#f3 #d#h#e74 ,! ORIG9AL ESSAY WAS PUBLI%$ 9 ! ,SPECTATOR ON #a ,M>* 

.<#h.> ,?IS IS SIMIL> TO TRY+ TO PU% ! NOTION ( FATE TOO F> 9TO ! ,IT IS POSSIBLE TO SAY ?AT ! E>? IS FAT$ TO BE DE/ROY$ :5 ! SUN EXPLODES 9 SEV]AL BILLION YE>S1 BUT !RE IS NOT MU* PO9T 9 MAK+ ! OBS]VATION4 

.<#i.> ,AT LEA/1 A QUICK SURVEY ( ,LEE ,H>+'S ,MALAGASY ,TALE ,9DEX 7#a#i#h#b7 DOES NOT REVEAL ANY SU* 

7,S\RCE3 ,RETRIEV$ ON #b#h? ,NOVEMB] #bba FROM DAVIDGRAEB]4ORG47 

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